In this matter of taxation we have certainly done much more than any of the countries who are fighting either with us or against us. Germany set the example at the beginning of the war of raising no money at all by taxation, puffed up with the vain belief that the cost of the war, and a good deal more, was going to be handed over to her in the shape of indemnities by her vanquished enemies. This terrible miscalculation on her part led her to set a very bad example to the warring Powers, and when protests are made in this country concerning the low proportion of the war's costs that is being met out of taxation it is easy for the official apologist to answer, "See how much more we are doing than Germany." It is easy, but it is not a good answer. Germany had no financial prestige to maintain; the money that Germany is raising for financing the war is raised almost entirely at home, and she rejoices in a population so entirely tame under a dominant caste that it would very likely be quite easy for her, when, the war is over, to cancel a large part of the debt by some process of financial jugglery, and to induce her tame and deluded creditors to believe that they have been quite handsomely treated.

Here, however, in England, we have a financial prestige which is based upon financial leadership of more than a century. We have also raised a large part of the money we have used for the prosecution of the war by borrowing abroad, and so we have to be specially careful in husbanding that credit, which is so strong a weapon on the side of liberty and justice. And, further, we have a public which thinks for itself, and will be highly sceptical, and is already inclined to be sceptical, concerning the manner in which the Government may treat the national creditors. Its tendency to think for itself in matters of finance is accompanied by very gross ignorance, which very often induces it to think quite wrongly; and when we find it necessary for the Chancellor of the Exchequer to make it clear at a succession of public meetings that those who subscribe to War Loans need have no fear that their property in them will be treated worse than any other kinds of property, we see what evil results the process of too much borrowing and too little taxation can have in a community which is acutely suspicious and distrustful of its Government, and very liable to ignorant blundering on financial subjects.

What, then, might have been done if, at the beginning of the war, a really courageous Government, with some power of foreseeing the needs of finance for several years ahead if the war lasted, had made a right appeal to a people which was at that time ready to do all that was asked from it for the cause of justice against the common foe? The problem by which the Government was faced was this, that it had to acquire for the war an enormous and growing amount of goods and services required by our fighting forces, some of which could only be got from abroad, and some could only be produced at home, while at the same time it had to maintain the civilian population with such a supply of the necessaries of life as would maintain them in efficiency for doing the work at home which was required to support the effort of our fighters at the Front. With regard to the goods which came from abroad, either for war purposes or for the maintenance of the civilian population, the Government obviously had no choice about the manner in which payment had to be made. It had no power to tax the suppliers in foreign countries of the goods and services that we needed during the war period. It consequently could only induce them to supply these goods and services by selling them either commodities produced by our own industry, or securities held by our capitalists, or its own promises to pay.

With regard to the goods that we might have available for export, these were likely to be curtailed owing to the diversion of a large number of our industrial population into the ranks of the Army and into munition factories. This curtailment, on the other hand, might to a certain extent be made good by a reduction in consumption on the part of the civilian population, so setting free a larger proportion of our manufacturing energy for the production of goods for export. Otherwise the problem of paying for goods purchased from abroad could only be solved by the export of securities, and by borrowing from foreign countries, so that the shells and other war material that were required, for example, from America, might be paid for by American investors in consideration of receiving from us a promise to pay them back some day, and to pay them interest in the meantime. In other words, we could only pay for what we needed from abroad by shipping goods or securities. As is well known, we have financed the war by these methods to an enormous extent; the actual extent to which we have done so is not known, but it is believed that we have roughly balanced by this process the sums that we have lent to our Allies and Dominions, which now amount to well over 1300 millions.

If this is so, we have, in fact, financed the whole of the real cost of the war to ourselves at home, and we have done so by taxation, by borrowing saved money, and by inflation—that is to say, by the manufacture of new currency, with the inevitable result of depreciating the buying power of our existing currency as a whole. How much better could the thing have been done? In other words, how much of the war's cost in so far as it was raised at home could have been raised by taxation? In theory the answer is very simple, for in theory the whole cost of the war, in so far as it is raised at home, could have been raised by taxation if it could have been raised at all. It is not possible to raise more by any other method than it is theoretically possible to raise by taxation. It is often said, "All this preaching about taxation is all very well, but you couldn't possibly get anything like the amount that is needed for the war by taxation, or even by borrowing of saved money. This inflation against which economic theorists are continually railing is inevitable in time of war because there isn't enough money in the country to provide all that is needed."

This argument is simply the embodiment of the old delusion, so common among people who handle the machinery of finance, that you can really increase the supply of necessary goods by increasing the supply of money, which is nothing else than claims to goods expressed either in pieces of metal or pieces of paper. As we have seen, all that we have been able to raise abroad has been required for advances to our Allies and Dominions, consequently we have had to fall back upon our own home production for everything needed for our own war costs. Either we have turned out the goods at home or we have turned out goods to sell to foreigners in exchange for goods that we require from them. But since we thus had to rely on home production for the whole of the war's needs as far as we were concerned, it is clear that the Government could, if it had been gifted with ideal courage and devotion, and if it had a people behind it ready to do all that was needed for victory, have taken the whole of the home production, except what was wanted for maintaining the civilian population in efficiency, for the purposes of the war.

It is a commonplace of political theory that the Government has a right to take the whole of the property and the whole of the labour of its citizens. But it would not, of course, have been possible for the Government immediately to inaugurate a policy of setting everybody to work on things required for the war and paying them all a maintenance wage. This might have been done in theory, but in practice it would have involved questions of industrial conscription, which would probably have raised a storm of difficulty. What the Government might have done would have been by commandeering the buying power of the citizen to have set free the whole industrial energy of the community for supplying the war's needs and the necessaries of life. At present the national output, which is only another way of expressing the national income, is produced from certain channels of production in response to the expectation of demand from those whose possession of claims to goods, that is to say, money, gives them the right to say what kind of goods they will consume, and consequently the industrial part of the population will produce.

Had the Government laid down that the whole cost of the war was to be borne by taxation, the effect of this measure would have been that everything which was needed for the war would have been placed at the disposal of the Government by a reduction in spending on the part of those who have the spending power. In other words, the only process required would have been the readjustment of industrial output from the production of goods needed (or thought to be needed) for ordinary individuals to those required for war purposes. This readjustment would have gone on gradually as the war's cost increased. There would have been no competition between the Government and private individuals for a limited amount of goods in a restricted market, which has had such a disastrous effect on prices during the course of the war; there would have been no manufacture of new currency, which means the creation of new buying power at a time when there are less goods to buy, which has had an equally fatal effect on prices; there would have had to be a very drastic reform in our system of taxation, by which the income tax, the only really equitable engine by which the Government can get much money out of us, would have been reformed so as to have borne less hardly upon those with families to bring up.

Mr Sidney Webb and the Fabians have advocated a system by which the basis of assessment for income tax should be the income divided by the number of members of a family, rather than the mere income without any consideration for the number of people that have to be provided for out of it. With some such scheme as this adopted there is no reason why the Government should not have taken, for example, the whole of all incomes above L1000 a year for each individual, due allowance being made for obligations, such as rent, which involve long contracts. For any single individual to want to spend more than L1000 a year on himself or herself at such a crisis would have been recognised, in the early days of the war, as an absurdity; any surplus above that line might readily have been handed over to the Government, half of it perhaps in taxation and the other half in the form of a forced loan.

So sweeping a change would not have been necessary at first, perhaps not at all, because the war's cost would not have grown nearly so rapidly. All surplus income above a certain line would have been taken for the time being, but with the promise to repay half the amount taken, so that it should not be made a disadvantage to be rich, and no discouragement to accumulation would have been brought about. By this means the whole of the nation's buying power among the richer classes would have been concentrated upon the war, with the result that the private extravagance, which is still disgracing us in the fourth year of the war, would not have been allowed to produce its evil effects. With the rich thus drastically taxed, the working classes would have been much less restive under the application of income tax to their own wages. We should have a much more freely supplied labour market, and since the rise in prices would not have been nearly so severe, labour's claim to higher wages would have been much less equitable, and labour's power to enforce the claim would have been much less irresistible.

What the Government has actually done has been to do a little bit of taxation, much more than anybody else, but still a little bit when compared with the total cost of the war; a great deal of borrowing, and a great deal of inflation. By this last-named method it produces the result required, that of diverting to itself a large part of the industrial output of the country, by the very worst possible means. It still, by its failure to tax, leaves buying power in the hands of a large number of people who see no reason why they should not live very much as usual; that is to say, why they should not demand for their own purposes a proportion of the nation's energy which they have no real right to require at such a time of crisis. But in order to check their demands, and to provide its own needs, the Government, by setting the bankers to work to provide it with book credits, gives itself an enormous amount of new buying power with which, by the process of competition, it secures for itself what is needed for the war. There is thus throughout the country this unwholesome process of competition between the Government on one hand and unpatriotic spenders on the other, who, between them, put up prices against the Government and against all those unfortunate, defenceless people who, being in possession of fixed salaries, or of fixed incomes, have no remedy against rising prices and rising taxation. All that could possibly have been spent on the war in this country was the total income of the people, less what was required for maintaining the people in health and efficiency. That total income Government might, in theory, have taken. If it had done so it could and would have paid for the whole of the war out of taxation.

All this, I shall be told, is much too theoretical and idealistic; these things could not have been done in practice. Perhaps not, though it is by no means certain, when we look back on the very different temper that ruled In the country in the early months of the war. If anything of the kind could have been done it would certainly have been a practical proof of determination for the war which would have shown more clearly than anything else that "no price was too high when Honour was at stake." It would also have been an extraordinary demonstration to the working classes of the sacrifices that property owners were ready to make, the result of which might have been that the fine spirit shown at the beginning of the war might have been maintained until the end, instead of degenerating into a series of demands for higher wages, each one of which, as conceded to one set of workmen, only stimulates another to demand the same. But even if we grant that it is only theoretically possible to have performed such a feat as is outlined above, there is surely no question that much more might have been done than has been done in the matter of paying for the war by taxation. If we are reminded once more that our ancestors paid nearly half the cost of the Napoleonic war out of revenue, while we are paying about a fifth of the cost of the present war from the same source, it is easy to see that a much greater effort might have been made in view of the very much greater wealth of the country at the present time. I was going to have added, in view also of its greater economic enlightenment, but I feel that after the experience of the present war, and its financing by currency debasement, the less about economic enlightenment the better.

What, then, stood in the way of measures of finance which would have obviously had results so much more desirable than those which will face us at the end of the war? As it is, the nation, with all classes embittered owing to suspicions of profiteering on the part of the employers and of unpatriotic strikes on the part of the workers, will have to face a load of debt, the service of which is already roughly equivalent to our total pre-war revenue; while there seems every prospect that the war may continue for many half-years yet, and every half-year, as it is at present financed, leaves us with a load of debt which will require the total yield of the income tax and the super-tax before the war to meet the charge upon it. Why have we allowed our present finance to go so wrong? In the first place, perhaps, we may put the bad example of Germany. Then, surely, our rulers might have known better than to have been deluded by such an example. In the second place, it was the cowardice of the politicians, who had not the sense in the early days of the war to see how eager the spirit of the country was to do all that the war required of it, and consequently were afraid to tax at a time when higher taxation would have been submitted to most cheerfully by the country. There was also the absurd weakness of our Finance Ministers and our leading financial officials, which allowed our financial machinery to be so much weakened by the demands of the War Office for enlistment that it has been said in the House of Commons by several Chancellors of the Exchequer that it is quite impossible to consider any form of new taxation because the machinery could not undertake it. There has also been great short-sightedness on the part of the business men of the country, who have failed to give the Government a lead in this important matter. Like the Government, they have taken short views, always hoping that the war might soon be over, and so have left the country with a problem that grows steadily more serious with each half-year as we drift stupidly along the line of least resistance.

Such war finance as I have outlined—drastic and impracticable as it seems—would have paid us. Taxation in war-time, when industry's problem is simplified by the Government's demand for its product, hurts much less than in peace, when industry has not only to turn out the stuff, but also find a buyer—often a more difficult and expensive problem. There is a general belief that by paying for war by loans we hand the business of paying for it on to posterity. In fact, we can no more make posterity pay us back our money than we can carry on war with goods that posterity will produce. Whatever posterity produces it will consume. Whatever it pays in interest and amortisation of our war debt, it will pay to itself. We cannot get a farthing out of posterity. All we can do, by leaving it a debt charge, is to affect the distribution of its wealth among its members. Each loan that we raise makes us taxpayers collectively poorer now, to the extent of the capital value of the charge on our incomes that it involves. The less we thus charge our productive power, and the more we pay up in taxes as the war goes on, the readier we shall be to play a leading part in the great time of reconstruction.



V

A LEVY ON CAPITAL

January, 1918

The Objects of the Levy—Its Origin and History—How it would work in Practice—The Attitude of the Chancellor—The Effects of the Scheme in discouraging Thrift—Its Fallacies and Injustices—The Insuperable Obstacles to its Application—Its Influence on Production—One of the Tests of a Tax—Judged by this Test the Proposed Levy is doomed.

By some curious mental process the idea of a levy on capital has come into rapidly increasing prominence in the last few months, and seems to be gaining popularity in quarters where one would least expect it. On the other hand, it is naturally arousing intense opposition, both among those who would be most closely affected by its imposition, and also among those who view with grave concern the possible and probable economic effects of such a system of dealing with the national debt. I say "dealing with the national debt" because, as will be clear, as a system of raising money for the war the suggestion of the levy on capital has little or nothing to recommend it. But, as will also be made clear, the proposal has been put forward as a thing to be done immediately in order to increase the funds in the hands of the Chancellor of the Exchequer to be spent on war purposes.

A levy on capital is, of course, merely a variation of the tax on property, which has long existed in the United States, and had been resorted to before now by Governments, of which the German Government is a leading example, in order to provide funds for a special emergency. This it can very easily do as long as the levy is not too high. If, for example, you tax a man to the extent of 1-1/2 per cent. to 2 per cent. of the value of his property, on which he may be earning an average of 5 to 6 per cent. in interest, then the levy on capital becomes merely a form of income tax, assessed not according to the income of the taxpayer but according to the alleged value of his property. It is thus, again, a variation of the system long adopted in this country of a special rate of income tax on what is called "unearned" income, i.e. income from invested property. But it is only when one begins to adopt the broadminded views lately fashionable of the possibilities of a levy on capital and to talk of taking, say, 20 per cent. of the value of a man's property from him in the course of a year, that it becomes evident that he cannot be expected to pay anything like this sum, in cash, unless either a market is somehow provided—which seems difficult if all property owners at once are to be mulcted of a larger amount than their incomes—or unless the Government is prepared to accept part at least of the levy in the shape of property handed over at a valuation.

Before, however, we come to deal in detail with the difficulties and drawbacks of the suggestion, it may be interesting to trace the history of the movement in its favour, and to see some of the forms in which it has been put forward. It may be said that the ball was opened early last September when, in the Daily News of the 8th of that month, its able and always interesting editor dealt in one of his illuminating Saturday articles with the question of "How to Pay for the War." He began with the assumption that the capital of the individuals of the nation has increased during the war from 16,000 millions to 20,000 millions. A 10 per cent. levy on this, he proceeded, would realise 2000 millions. It would extinguish debt to that amount and reduce the interest on debt by 120 millions. The levy would be graduated—say, 5 per cent. on fortunes of L1000 to L20,000; 10 per cent. on L20,000 to L50,000; up to 30 per cent. on sums over L1,000,000; and the individual taxpayer was to pay the levy "in what form was convenient, in his stocks or his shares, his houses or his fields, in personalty or realty."

Just about the same time the Round Table, a quarterly magazine which is usually most illuminating on the subject of finance, chimed in with a more or less similar suggestion in an article on "Finance After the War." It remarked that the difficulty of applying a levy on capital is "probably not so great as appears at first sight." The total capital wealth of the community it estimated at about 24,000 millions sterling. To pay off a war debt of 3000 millions would therefore require a levy of one-eighth. Evidently this could not be raised in money, nor would it be necessary. Holders of War Loans would pay their proportion in a simple way by surrendering one-eighth of their scrip. Holders of other forms of property would be assessed for one-eighth of its value and be called on to acquire and to surrender to the State the same amount of War Loan scrip. To do this, they would be obliged to realise a part of their property or to mortgage it, "but," added the Round Table cheerfully, "there is no insuperable difficulty about that."

The first thing that strikes one when one examines these two schemes is the difference in their view concerning the amount of capital wealth available for taxation. Mr Gardiner made the comparatively modest estimate of 16,000 millions to 20,000 millions; the Round Table plumps for 24,000 millions, and, incidentally, it may be remarked that some conservative estimates put it as low as 11,000 millions. Thus we have a possible range for the fancy of the scheme builder of from 11,000 to 24,000 millions in the property on which taxation is proposed to be levied. But it is when we come to the details of these schemes that the difficulties begin to glare. Mr Gardiner tells us that millionaires would pay up to 30 per cent. of their property, and that they would pay in what form was convenient, in houses, fields, etc., etc. But he does not explain by what principle the Government is to distribute among the holders of the debt, the repayment of whom is the object of the levy, the strange assortment of miscellaneous assets which it would thus collect from the property owners of the country.

In commenting on this scheme the Economist of September 15th took the case of a man with a fortune of L100,000 invested before the war in a well-assorted list of securities, the whole of which he had, for patriotic reasons, converted during the war into War Loans. He would have no difficulty about paying his capital levy, for he would obviously surrender something between 10 and 20 per cent. of his holding. But, "in exchange for nearly two-thirds of the rest, he might find himself landed with houses and bits of land all over the country, a batch of unsaleable mining shares, a collection of blue china, a pearl necklace, a Chippendale sideboard, and a doubtful Titian," The Round Table's suggestion seems to be even more impracticable. According to it, holders of all other forms of property besides War Loans would be assessed for one-eighth of its value—it does not explain how the value is to be arrived at, nor how long it would take to do it—and would then be called on to acquire and to surrender to the State the same amount of War Loan scrip. To do this they would be obliged to realise a part of their property or to mortgage it, a process which would seem likely to produce a pretty state of affairs in the property market; and a very pleasant state of affairs indeed would arise for the holders of War Loan scrip, since there would be a large crowd of compulsory buyers in the market from whom the holders would apparently be able to extort any price that they liked for their stock.

The next stage in the proceedings was a deputation to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, concerning which more anon, of leaders of various groups of the Labour Party, to press upon Mr Bonar Law the principle of what is called "the Conscription of Wealth," and the publication at or soon after that time, which was about the middle of November, of a pamphlet on the subject of the "Conscription of Riches," by the War Emergency Workers' National Committee, 1, Victoria Street, S.W. Among what this pamphlet describes as "the three practicable methods of conscripting wealth" No. 1 is as follows:—

A Capital Tax, on the lines of the present Death Duties, which are graduated from nothing (on estates under L300, and legacies under L20) up to about 20 per cent. (on very large estates left as legacies to strangers).

If a "Death Duty" at the existing rates were now levied simultaneously on every person in the kingdom possessing over L300 wealth (every person might be legally deemed to have died, and to be his own heir), it might yield to the Chancellor of the Exchequer about L900,000,000. It would be necessary to offer a discount for payment in cash; and in order to avoid simultaneous forced sales, to accept, in lieu of cash, securities at a valuation; and to take mortgages on land.

Here it will be seen that the Emergency Workers had improved on the Round Table, and agreed with Mr Gardiner, by providing that the Government should take securities at a valuation and mortgages on land in lieu of cash in order to avoid simultaneous forced sales. But they do not seem to have perceived that, in so far as the Government took securities or accepted mortgages on land, it would not be getting money to pay for the war, which was the object of the proposed Conscription of Wealth, but would only be obtaining property from which the Government would in due course later on receive an income, probably averaging about one-twentieth of its value.

Perhaps, however, it would be more correct to say that those who put the scheme forward did not ignore this drawback to it, but rather liked it, for reasons quite irrelevant to the objects that they were apparently pursuing. A good deal of prominence was given about the same time to the question of a levy on capital in the New Statesman well known to be the organ of Mr Sidney Webb and other members of the Fabian Society. These distinguished and very intellectual Socialists would, of course, be quite pleased if, in an apparent endeavour to pay for the war, they actually succeeded in securing, by the Government's acquisition of blocks of securities from property owners, that official control of industry and production which is the object of State Socialists.

It will be noted, however, in this scheme that no mention is made of any forms of property to be accepted by the Government in lieu of cash except securities and mortgages on land. Items such as furniture, books, pictures and jewellery are ignored, and in one of the articles in the New Statesman, discussing the question of a capital levy, it was distinctly suggested that these commodities should be left out of the scheme so as to save the trouble involved by valuation. Unfortunately, if we leave out these forms of property the natural result is to stimulate the tendency, lately shown by an unfortunately large number of patriotic taxpayers, of putting money into pearl necklaces and other such gewgaws in order to avoid income tax. If by buying fur coats, old masters and diamond tiaras it will be be possible in future to avoid paying, not only income tax, but also a capital levy, it is to be feared that appeals to people to save their money and invest it in War Bonds are likely to be seriously interfered with.

Unfortunately, the Statesman was able to announce that the appeal for this system of taxation had been received with a good deal of sympathy by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and the next stage in the history of the agitation was the publication on Boxing Day in several of the daily papers of what appeared to be an official summary, issued through the Central News, of what the Chancellor had said to the deputation of Labour Leaders introduced by Mr Sidney Webb, which waited on him, as already described, in the middle of November. Having pointed out that he had never seen any proposal which seemed to him to be practicable for getting money during the war by conscripting wealth, Mr Bonar Law added that, though "perhaps he had not thought enough about it to justify him in saying so," his own feeling was that it would be better, both for the wealthy classes and the country, to have this levy on capital, and reduce the burden of the national debt when the war was over. It need not be said that this statement by the Chancellor has been very far from helpful to the efforts of those who are trying to induce unthrifty citizens to save their money and put it into National War Bonds for the finance of the war.

"Why," people argue, "should we go out of our way to save and take these securities if, when the war is over, a large slice of our savings is to be taken away from us by means of this levy on capital? If we had been doubting between the enjoyment of such comforts and luxuries as are possible in war-time and the austere duty of thrift, we shall naturally now choose the pleasanter path, spend our money on ourselves and on those who depend on us, instead of saving it up to be taken away again when the war is over, while those who have spent their money as they liked will be let off scot free." Certainly, it is much to be regretted that the Chancellor of the Exchequer should have let such a statement go forth, especially as he himself admits that perhaps he has not thought enough about it to justify him in saying so. If the Chancellor of the Exchequer has not time to think about what he is going to say to a Labour deputation which approaches him on an extremely important revolution in our fiscal system, it is surely high time that we should get one who has sufficient leisure to enable him to give his mind to problems of this sort when they are put before him.

In the course of this review of the forms in which suggestions for a levy on capital have been put forward, some of the difficulties and injustices inherent in it have already been pointed out. Its advocates seem as a rule to base the demand for it upon an assumption which involves a complete fallacy. This is that, since the conscription of life has been applied during the war, it is necessary that conscription of wealth should also be brought to bear in order to make the war sacrifice of all classes equal. For instance, the Emergency Workers' pamphlet, quoted above, states that, "in view of the fact that the Government has not shrunk from Compulsory Conscription of Men," the Committee demands that "for all the future money required to carry on the war, the Government ought, in common fairness, to accompany the Conscription of Men by the Conscription of Wealth."

This contention seems to imply that the conscription of men and the conscription of wealth apply to two different classes; in other words, that the owners of wealth have been able to avoid the conscription of men. This, of course, is absolutely untrue. The wealthiest and the poorest have to serve the country in the front line alike, if they are fit. The proportion of those who are fit is probably higher among the wealthy classes, and, consequently, the conscription of men applies to them more severely. Again, the officers are largely drawn from the comparatively wealthy classes, and it is pretty certain that the proportion of casualties among officers has been higher during the war than among the rank and file. Thus, as far as the conscription of men is concerned, the sacrifice imposed upon all classes in the community is alike, or, if anything, presses rather more heavily upon those who own wealth. Conscription of wealth as well as conscription of life thus involves a double sacrifice to the owners of property.

This double sacrifice, in fact, the owners of property have, as is quite right, borne throughout the war by the much more rapid increase in direct taxation than in indirect. It is right that the owners of property should bear the heavier monetary burden of the war because they, having more to lose and therefore more to gain by a successful end of the war, should certainly pay a larger proportion of its cost. It was also inevitable that they should do so because, when money is wanted for the war or any other purpose, it can only be taken in large amounts from those who have a surplus over what is needed to provide them with the necessaries and decencies of life. But the argument which puts forward a capital levy on the ground that the rich have been escaping war sacrifice is fallacious in itself, and is a wicked misrepresentation likely to embitter still further the bad feeling between classes.

Nevertheless, Mr Bonar Law thinks that, since the cost of the war must inevitably fall chiefly upon the owners of property, and since it therefore becomes a question of expediency with them whether they should pay at once in the form of a capital levy or over a long series of years in increased taxation, he is inclined to think that the former method is one which would be most convenient to them and best for the country. This contention cannot be set aside lightly, and there can be no doubt that if, by making a dead lift, the wealthy classes of the country could throw off their shoulders a large part of the burden of the war debt, such a scheme is well worth considering as long as it does not carry with it serious drawbacks.

It seems to me, however, that the drawbacks are very considerable. In the first place, I have not seen any really practicable scheme of redeeming debt by means of a levy on capital In so far as the levy is paid in the form of surrendered War Loans, it is simple enough. In so far as it is paid in other securities or mortgages on land or other forms of property, it is difficult to see how the assets acquired by the State through the levy could be distributed among the debt holders whom it is proposed to pay off. Would they be forced to take securities, mortgages on land, furniture, etc., as the Government chose to distribute them, or would the Government have to nurse an enormous holding of various forms of property and gradually realise them and so pay off debt?

Again, a great injustice would surely be involved by laying the whole burden of this oppressive levy upon owners of accumulated property, so penalising those who save capital for the community and letting off those who squander their incomes. A characteristic argument on this point was provided by the New Statesman in a recent issue. It argued that, because ordinary income tax would still be exacted, the contrast between the successful barrister with an Income of L20,000 a year and no savings, who would consequently escape the capital levy, and the poor clergyman who had saved L1000 and would consequently be liable to it, fell to the ground. In other words, because both lawyer and parson paid income tax, it was fair that the former should escape the capital levy while the latter should have to pay it!

But needs must when the devil drives, and in a crisis of this kind it is not always possible to look too closely into questions of equity in raising money. It is necessary, however, to look very closely into the probable economic effects of any suggested form of taxation, and, if we find that it is likely to diminish the future wealth production of the nation, to reject it, however attractive it may seem to be at first sight. A levy on capital which would certainly check the incentive to save, by the fear that, if such a thing were once successfully put through, it might very likely be repeated, would dry up the springs of that supply of capital which is absolutely essential to the increase of the nation's productive power. Moreover, business men who suddenly found themselves shorn of 10 to 20 per cent. of their available capital would find their ability to enter into fresh enterprise seriously diminished just at the very time when it is essential that all the organisers of production and commerce in this country should be most actively engaged in every possible form of enterprise, in order to make good the ravages of war.



VI

OUR BANKING MACHINERY

February, 1918

The Recent Amalgamations—Will the Provinces suffer?—Consolidation not a New Movement—The Figures of the Past Three Decades—Reduction of Competition not yet a Danger—The Alleged Neglect of Local Interests—Shall we ultimately have One Huge Banking Monopoly?—The Suggested Repeal of the Bank Act—Sir E. Holden's Proposal.

Banking problems have lately loomed large in the financial landscape. It will be remembered that about a year and a half ago a Committee was appointed to consider the creation of a new institution specially adapted for financing overseas trade and for the encouragement of industrial and other ventures through their years of infancy, and that the charter which was finally granted to the British Trade Corporation, as this institution was ultimately called, roused a great deal of opposition both on the part of banks and of traders who thought that a Government institution with a monopoly character was going to cut into their business with the help of a Government subsidy. In fact, there was no subsidy at all in question, and the fears of the trading world of competition on the part of the new chartered institution only arose owing to its unfortunate name, which was given to it in order to allay the apprehensions of the banks which had been provoked by the title originally designed for it, namely, the British Trade Bank. There seems no reason why this Company should not do good work for British trade without treading on the toes of anybody. Although naturally its activities cannot be developed on any substantial scale until the war is over, its Chairman assured the shareholders at the end of January that its preliminary spadework was being carefully attended to.

After this small storm in a teacup had died down those interested in our banking efficiency were again excited by the rapid progress made by the process of amalgamation among our great banks, which began to show acute activity again in the last months of 1917. The suddenly announced amalgamation of the London and South-Western and London and Provincial Banks led to a whole host of rumours as to other amalgamations which were to follow; and though most of these proved to be untrue a fresh sensation was aroused when the union was announced of the National Provincial Bank of England and the Union of London and Smith's Bank. All the old arguments were heard again on the subject of the objections, from the point of view of industry in the provinces, to the formation of great banking institutions, with enormous figures on both sides of the balance-sheet, working from London, often, it was alleged, with no consideration for the needs of the provincial users of credit. These latest amalgamations, which have united banks which already had head offices in London, gave less cause than usual for these provincial apprehensions, which had far more solid reason behind them when purely provincial banks were amalgamated with institutions whose head office was in London. Nevertheless, the argument was heard that the great size and scale on which these amalgamated banks were bound to work would necessarily make them more monopolistic and bureaucratic in their outlook, and less elastic and adaptable in their dealings with their local customers.

It seems to me that there is so far very little solid ground for any apprehension on the part of the business community that the recent development of banking evolution will tend to any damage to their interests. The banks have grown in size with the growth of industry. As industry has tended more and more to be worked by big battalions, it became necessary to have banking institutions with sufficiently large resources at their command to meet the great requirements of the huge industrial organisations that they had to serve. Nevertheless, the tendency towards fewer banks and bigger figures has grown with extraordinary celerity, as the following table shows:—

MOVEMENT OF ENGLISH JOINT-STOCK BANK DEPOSITS, ETC., SINCE 1886.

December No. of Number of Capital Deposit and Total 31st Banks Branches Paid up Current Liabilities Accounts 1886 109 1,547 L38,468,000 L299,195,000 L376,808,000 1891 106 2,245 43,406,000 391,842,000 486,632,000 1896 94 3,051 45,203,000 495,233,000 599,518,000 1901 74 3,935 46,631,000 584,841,000 698,150,000 1906 55 4,840 48,122,000 647,889,000 782,353,000 1911 44 5,417 47,265,000 748,641,000 885,069,000 1916 35 5,993 48,237,000 1,154,877,000 1,316,220,000

This table is taken from the annual banking numbers of the Economist. It will be noticed that in 1886 there were in England 109 joint-stock banks with 1547 offices, whose accounts were tabulated in the Economist's annual review. Their total paid-up capital was 38-1/2 millions, their deposit and current accounts were just under 300 millions, and their total liabilities were 377 millions. In the course of thirty years the 109 banks had shrunk by the process of amalgamation and absorption to thirty-five, that is to say, they had been divided by three; the number of their offices, however, had been multiplied by nearly four, while their deposit accounts had grown from 300 millions to 1155, and their total liabilities from 377 to 1316 millions. By the amalgamations announced at the end of 1917, and that of the County of Westminster with Parr's announced on February 1st, the number of joint stock banks will be reduced to 32. The picture would be still more striking if the figures of the private banks were included, since their number has been reduced, since 1891, from 37 to 6. These figures are eloquent of the manner in which the number of individual banks has been reduced, while the extent of the banking accommodation given to the community has enormously grown, so that the power wielded by each individual bank has increased by the force of both these processes.

The consequent reduction in competition which is causing some concern among the trading community has not, as it seems to me, gone far enough yet to be a serious danger. The idea that the big banks with offices in London give scant consideration to the needs of their local customers seems to be so contrary to the interests of the banks that they would be extraordinarily bad men of business if those who were responsible for their management allowed it to be the fact. It is probably nearer the truth that banking competition in the provinces is still so keen that the London management is very careful not to allow anything like bureaucratic stiffness to get into the methods by which their business is managed. By the appointment of local committees they are careful to do all they can to see that the local interests get all the credit that is good for them. That local interests get as much credit as they want is probably very seldom the case, because it is a natural instinct on the part of an eager business man to want rather more credit than he ought to have, from a banking point of view. Business interests, as long as they exist in private hands, will always want rather more credit than there is available, and it will always be the duty of the banker to ensure that the country's industry is kept on a sound basis by checking the tendency of the eager business man to undertake rather more than is good for him. From the sentimental point of view it is certainly a pity to have seen many of the picturesque old private banks extinguished, the partners in which were in close personal touch with their customers, and entered into the lives of the local communities in a manner which their modern counterpart is perhaps unable to do. Nevertheless, it is difficult to get away from the fact that if these institutions had been as efficient and as well managed as their admirers depict them to have been they would hardly have been driven out of existence by the stress of modern developments and competition. Whatever we may think of modern competition, in certain of its aspects, we may at least be sure of this—that it does not destroy an institution which is really wanted by the business community. And if the complaint of local interests is true, that they are swamped by the cosmopolitan aspirations of the great London offices, they always have it in their power to create an institution of the kind that they want, and by giving it their business to ensure for it a prosperous career. As long as no such tendency is visible in the banking world we may be pretty sure that the views expressed concerning the neglect of local interests by the enormous banks which have grown up with London centres in the last thirty years is to a great extent a myth. It has now announced, however, that the whole problem involved by the amalgamation process is to be sifted by a committee to be appointed for this purpose.

Another apprehension has arisen in the minds of those who view with critical vigilance the present tendencies of business and the present development of economic opinion among a great section of the community. If, it is urged, the banks continue to swallow one another up by the process of amalgamation, how will this tendency end except in the creation of one huge bank working a gigantic money monopoly which the Socialistic tendencies of the present day will, with some reason, insist ought to be taken over by the State for the profit of the taxpayer? This view is frankly put forward by those advocates of a Socialistic organisation of society, who say that the modern tendency of industry towards combinations, rings and trusts is rapidly bringing the Socialistic millennium within their reach without any effort on the part of Socialistic preachers. They consider that the trust movement is doing the work of Socialism, much faster than Socialism could do it for itself; that, in short, as has been argued above in regard to banking, the tendency towards centralisation and the elimination of competition can only end in the assumption by the State of the functions of industry and finance. If this should be so, the future is dark for those of us who believe that individual effort is the soul of industrial and financial progress, and that industry carried on by Government Departments, however efficient and economical it might be, would be such a deadly dull and unenterprising business that all the adaptability and tendency to variation in accordance with the needs of the moment, which are so strongly shown by individual enterprise, would be lost, to the great detriment of the material progress of mankind.

As things are at present, there is little need to fear that Socialistic organisation of industry could stand up against competent individual effort. Anybody who has ever had any business dealings with a Government Department will inevitably shudder when he tries to imagine how many forms would have to be filled up, how many divisions of the Department the inevitable mass of papers would have to go through, and how much delay and tedium would be involved before the simplest business proposition could be carried out. But, of course, it is argued by Socialists that Government Departments are only slow and tied up with red tape because they have so long been encouraged to do as little as possible, and that as soon as they are really urged to do things instead of pursuing a policy of masterly inactivity, there is no reason why they should not develop a promptitude and elasticity quite as great as that hitherto shown by the business community. That such a development as this might take place in the course of generations nobody can deny; at present it must be admitted that with the great majority of men the money-making incentive is required to get the best out of them. If the process of education produces so great a change in the human spirit that men will work as well for the small salary of the Civil Service, with a K.C.B. thrown in, as they will now in order to gain the prizes of industry and finance, then perhaps, from the purely economic point of view, the Socialisation of banking may be justified. But we are a long way yet from any such achievement, and if it is the case that the rapid centralisation of banking power in comparatively few hands carries with it the danger of an attempt to nationalise a business which requires, above all, extreme adaptability and sensitiveness to the needs of the moment as they arise, this is certainly a danger which has to be carefully considered by those who are responsible for the development of these amalgamation processes.

And now another great stone has been thrown into the middle of the banking pond, causing an ever-widening circle of ripples and provoking the beginning of a discussion which is likely to be with us for some time to come. Sir Edward Holden, at the meeting of the London City and Midland Bank shareholders on January 29th, made an urgent demand for the immediate repeal of the Bank Act of 1844. This Act was passed, as all men know, in order to restrict the creation of credit in the United Kingdom. In the early part of the last century the most important part of a bank's business consisted of the issue of notes, and banking had been carried on in a manner which the country considered unsatisfactory because banks had not paid sufficient attention to the proportion of cash that they ought to hold in their tills to meet notes if they were presented. Parliament in its wisdom consequently ordained that the amount of notes which the banks should be allowed to issue, except against actual metal in their vaults, should be fixed at the amount of their issue at that time. Above the limit so laid down any notes issued by the banks were to be backed by metal. In the case of the Bank of England the limit then established was L14,000,000, and it was enacted that if any note-issuing bank gave up its right to a note issue the Bank of England should be empowered to increase its power to issue notes against securities to the extent of two-thirds of the power enjoyed by the bank which was giving up its privilege. By this process the Bank of England's right to issue notes against securities, what is usually called its fiduciary issue, has risen to L18,450,000; above that limit every note issued by it has to be backed by bullion, and is actually backed by gold, though under the Act one-fifth might be in silver. It was thus anticipated by the framers of the Act that in future any credit required by industry could only be granted by an increase in the gold held by the issuing banks. If the Act had fulfilled the anticipations of the Parliament which passed it, if English trade had grown to anything like the extent which it has done since, it could only have done so by the amassing of a mountain of gold, which would have lain in the vaults of the Bank of England.

Fortunately, however, the banking community had at its disposal a weapon of which it was already making considerable use, namely, the system of issuing credit by means of banking deposits operated on by cheques. Eight years before Peel's Act was passed two Joint Stock Banks had been founded in London, although the Bank of England note-issuing monopoly still made it impossible for any Joint Stock Bank to issue notes in the London district. It is thus evident that deposit banking was already well founded as a profitable business when Peel, and Parliament behind him, thought that they could sufficiently regulate the country's banking system so long as they controlled the issue of notes by the Bank of England and other note-issuing banks. It is perhaps fortunate that Parliament made this mistake, and so enabled our banking machinery to develop by means of deposit banking, and so to ignore the hard-and-fast regulations laid upon it by Peel's Act. This, at least, is what has happened; only in times of acute crisis have the strict regulations of Peel's Act caused any inconvenience, and when that inconvenience arose the Act has been suspended by the granting of a letter of indemnity from the Treasury to the Governor of the Bank.

Under Peel's Act the present rather anomalous form of the Bank of England's Weekly Return was also laid down. It shows, as all men know, two separate statements; one of the Issue Department and the other of the Banking Department. The Issue Department's statement shows the notes issued as a liability, and on the assets side Government debt and other securities (which are, in fact, also Government securities), amounting to L18,450,000 as allowed by the Act, and a balance of gold. The Banking Department's statement shows capital, "Rest" or reserve fund, and deposits, public and other, among the liabilities, and on the other side of the account Government and other securities, all the notes issued by the Issue Department which are not in circulation, and a small amount of gold and silver which the Banking Department holds as till money.

Sir Edward Holden's proposal is that the Act should be repealed practically in accordance with the system which has been adopted by the German Reichsbank. The principles which he enumerates, as those on which other national banks of issue work, are as follows:—

1. One bank of issue, and not divided into departments.

2. Notes are created and issued on the security of bills of exchange and on the cash balance, so that a relation is established between the notes issued and the discounts.

3. The notes issued are controlled by a fixed ratio of gold to notes or of the cash balance to notes.

4. This fixed ratio may be lowered on payment of a tax.

5. The notes should not exceed three times the gold or cash balance.

By this revolution Sir Edward would abolish all legal restriction on the issue of notes by the Bank of England. It would hold a certain amount of gold or a certain amount of cash balance against its notes, but in the "cash balance" Sir Edward apparently would include 11 millions odd of Government debt, or of Treasury notes. As long as its notes were only three times the amount of the gold or of the "cash balance," and were backed as to the other two-thirds by bills of exchange, the situation would be regarded as normal, but if, owing to abnormal circumstances, the Bank desired to increase the amount of notes issued against bills of exchange only and to reduce the ratio of its gold or its cash balance to its notes, it would, at any time, be enabled to do so by the payment of a tax, without going through the humiliating necessity for an appeal to the Treasury to allow it to exceed the legal limit.

At the same time, by the abolition of Peel's Act the cumbrous methods of stating the Bank's position, as published week by week in the Bank Return, would be abolished. The two accounts would be put together, with the result that the Bank's position would be apparently stronger than it appears to be under the present system, which makes the Banking Department's Return weak at the expense of the great strength that it gives to the appearance of the Issue Department. This will be shown from the following statement given by Sir Edward Holden of the Return as issued on January 16th, and as amended according to his ideas:—

BANK STATEMENT, JANUARY 16, 1918.

ISSUE DEPARTMENT

Notes Issued .. L76,076,000 Gold .................. L57,626,000 Government Debt ....... 11,015,000 Other Securities ...... 7,435,000 —————- —————- L76,076,000 L76,076,000 Ratio of Gold to Notes Issued = 75.7 per cent.

BANKING DEPARTMENT.

Capital ....... L14,553,000 Government Securities ...... L56,768,000 Rest .......... 3,363,000 Other Securities ........... 92,278,000 Deposits— Notes .......... L30,750,000 Public L41,416,000 Gold and Silver 1,143,000 Other 121,589,000 —————- 163,005,000 ——————- 31,893,000 Other Liabilities ... 18,000 —————- —————- L180,939,000 L180,939,000

Ratio of Cash Balance to Liabilities = 19.6 per cent.

RECONSTRUCTED BALANCE-SHEET OF THE BANK, JANUARY 16, 1918.

Capital L14,553,000 Rest 3,363,000 Notes Issued (circulation) 45,325,000 Deposits 163,005,000 Other Liabilities 18,000 ___ L226,264,000

Gold L58,768,000 Currency Notes 11,015,000 ___ L69,783,000

Government Securities 56,768,000 Other Securities 7,435,000 64,203,000

Other Securities 92,278,000 ___ L226,264,000

Ratio of Gold to Notes =129.7 per cent. " " Cash Balance to Liabilities = 33.5 "

It need not be said that these proposals have aroused the liveliest interest. At the Bank Meetings held since then several chairmen have been asked by their shareholders to express their views on Sir Edward's proposed revolution. Sir Felix Schuster pronounced cautiously in favour of the revision of the Bank Act, and said that he had advocated it seventeen years ago. Lord Inchcape, at the National Provincial Meeting, thought that the matter required careful consideration. Most of us will agree with this view. There is certainly much to be said for a reform of the Weekly Statement of the Bank of England, giving, it may be added, a good deal more detail than Sir Edward's revised balance-sheet affords. But concerning his proposal to reconstruct our system of note issue on a foreign model, there is certain to be much difference of opinion. In the first place, owing to the development of our system of banking by deposit and cheque rather than by issue and circulation of notes, the note issue is not nearly so important a business in normal times in this country as it is in Germany and France. Moreover, the check imposed upon our banking community by the need for an appeal to the Treasury before it can extend its note issue beyond a certain point often acts with, a salutary effect, and the view has even been expressed that if that check were taken away from our system it might be difficult, if not impossible, to maintain the gold standard which has been of such enormous value in building up the prestige of London as a financial centre. I do not think there is much weight in this argument, since, under Sir Edward's plan, the note issue could only be increased against discounts, and the Bank, by the charge that it made for discounts, would still be able to control the situation. From the practical point of view of the present moment, a strong objection to the scheme is that it would open the door to fresh inflation by unrestricted credit-making just when the dangers of this process are beginning to dawn even on the minds of our rulers.



VII

THE COMPANIES ACTS

March, 1918

Another Government Committee—The Fallacy of imitating Germany—Prussianising British Commerce—The Inquiry into the Companies Acts—Will Labour Influence dominate the Report?—Increased Production the Great Need—Will it be met by tightening up the Companies Acts?—The Dangers of too much Strictness—Some Reforms necessary—Publicity, Education, Higher Ideals the only Lasting Solution—The Importance of Foreign Investments—Industry cannot take all Risks and no Profits.

Every week—almost every day—brings with it the announcement of some new committee considering some question that may, or may not, arise now or when the war is over. Especially in the realm of finance has the Government's output of committees been notably prolific of late. We have had a Committee on Currency, a Committee on Banking Amalgamations, and a Committee appointed, humorously enough, by the Ministry of Reconstruction to consider what measures, if any, should be taken to protect the public interest in connection with the policy of industrial combinations—a policy which the Board of Trade has been sedulously fostering. Now comes a Committee to inquire "what amendments are expedient in the Companies Acts, 1908-1917, principally having regard to the circumstances arising out of the war, and to the developments likely to arise on its conclusion, and to report to the Board of Trade and to the Ministry of Reconstruction." It is composed of the Right Hon. Lord Wrenbury (chairman), Mr A.S. Comyns Carr, Sir F. Crisp, Mr G.W. Currie, M.P., Mr F. Gaspard Farrer, Mr Frank Gore-Browne, K.C., Mr James Martin, the Hon. Algernon H. Mills, Mr R.D. Muir, Mr C.T. Needham, M.P., Mr H.A. Payne, Sir Owen Philipps, M.P., Sir William Plender, Mr O.C. Quekett, and Mr A.W. Tait. The secretary is Mr W.W. Coombs, 55, Whitehall, S.W. 1. There are some good names on the Committee. Mr. Gaspard Farrer represents a great issuing house; Sir Frank Crisp, company lawyers; Sir William Plender, the accountants; Mr O.C. Quekett, the Stock Exchange; and Sir Owen Philipps, the shipping interest. Nevertheless, one cannot help shuddering when one considers the dangers that threaten British finance and industry from ill-considered measures which might possibly be recommended by a Committee influenced by the atmosphere of the present outlook on financial and commercial affairs.

One of the interesting features of the present war atmosphere is the fact that, now when we are fighting as hard as we can to defeat all that is meant by Prussianism a great many of our rulers and public men are doing their best to impose Prussianising methods upon this unfortunate country, merely because it is generally assumed that Prussian methods have been shown, during the course of the war, to carry with them a certain amount of efficiency. It is certainly true that Prussian methods do very well as applied to the Prussians and submitted to by other races of Germans. On the other hand, it is at least open to argument that the British method of freedom, individual initiative, elasticity and adaptability have produced results, during the present war, which have so far been paralleled by no other country engaged in the contest. Working on interior lines with the assistance of docile and entirely submissive allies, Germany has certainly done wonderful things in the war, but it by no means follows that the verdict of posterity will not give the palm of achievement to England, who has not only carried out everything that she promised to do before the war, but has incidentally and in the course of it created and equipped an Army on a Continental scale, and otherwise done very much more for the assistance of her Allies than was contemplated before the war began.

It is untrue to say that we were unprepared for the war. We were more than prepared to do all that we promised to do. What we were unprepared for was finding ourselves required to turn ourselves into, not only the greatest naval Power in the world, but one of the greatest military Powers also. This demand was sprang upon us, and we have met it with extraordinary success. The whole idea that Germany's achievement has been such as to warrant any attempt on our part to model our institutions on her pattern seems to me to fall to pieces as soon as one looks calmly at the actual results produced by the different systems. Moreover, even if we were to admit that Germany's achievement in the war has been immeasurably greater than ours, it still would not follow that we could improve matters here by following the German system. It ought not to be necessary to observe that a system which is good for one nation or individual is not necessarily good for another. In the simple matter of diet, for instance, a most scientifically planned diet given to a child who does not happen to like it will not do that child any good. These things ought to be obvious, but unfortunately in these times, which call for eminently practical thought and effort, there is a curious doctrinaire spirit abroad, and the theorist is continually encouraged to imagine how much better things would be if everything were quite different, whereas what we want is the application of practical common sense to practical facts as they are.

In the realm of finance the freedom and individual initiative and elasticity of our English system have long been the envy of the world. Our banking system, as was shown, on an earlier page, has always worked with much less restriction on the part of legislative and official interference than any other, and, with the help of this freedom from official control, English bankers and finance houses had made London the financial centre of the world before the war. The attempt of Parliament to control banking by Peel's Act of 1844 was quietly set aside by the banking machinery through the development of the use of cheques, which made the regulations imposed on the note issue a matter of quite minor importance, except in times of severe crisis, when these regulations could always be set aside by an appeal to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. There was no Government interference in the matter of new issues of securities on the London Stock Exchange or of the quotations granted to new securities by the Committee of the Stock Exchange. Now the Companies Acts are to be revised in view of what may be necessary after the war, and there is only too much reason to fear that mistakes may occur through the imposition of drastic restrictions, which look so easy to work on paper, but are more than likely to have the actual effect of doing much more harm than good.

"Circumstances arising out of the war and developments likely to arise on its conclusion" give this Committee a roving commission to consider all kinds of things, which may or may not happen, in the light of wisdom which may be put before it by interested witnesses, and, worse still, in the light of semi-official pressure to produce a report which will go down well with the House of Commons. Our politicians are at present in a state of extreme servility before the enterprising gentlemen who are now at the head of what is called the Labour Party. Every one will sympathise with the aspirations of this party in so far as they aim at bettering the lot of those who do the hard and uninteresting work of the world, and giving them a larger share of the productions that they help to turn out; but that is not the same thing as giving obsequious attention to the views which their representatives may have concerning the management of financial affairs, on the subject of which their knowledge is necessarily limited and their outlook is likely to be, to a certain extent, prejudiced. A recent manifesto put forward by the leaders of the new Labour Party includes in its programme the acquisition by the nation of the means of production—in other words, the expropriation of private capitalists. The Labour people very probably think that by this simple method they will be able to save the labourer the cost of providing capital and the interest which is paid for its use; and people who are actuated by this fallacy, which implies that the rate paid to capital is thinly disguised robbery, inevitably have warped views concerning the machinery of finance and the earnings of financiers. These views, expressed in practical legislation, might have the most serious effects not only upon England's financial supremacy but also on the industrial activity which that financial supremacy does so much to maintain and foster.

What, after the war, will be the most important need, from the material point of view, for the inhabitants of this country? However the war may end, and whatever may happen between now and the end of it, there can be only one answer to this question, and that answer is greatly increased production. The war has already diminished our capital resources to the extent of the whole amount that we have raised by borrowing abroad, that is to say, by pledging the production of our existing capital, and by selling to foreign countries the foreign securities in which our capitalists had invested during the previous century. No one knows the extent to which our capital resources have been impaired by these two processes, but it may be guessed at as somewhere in the neighbourhood of 1500 millions; that is to say, about 10 per cent. of a liberal estimate of the total accumulated property of the country at the beginning of the war. To this direct diminution in our capital resources we have to add the impossibility, which has existed during the war, of maintaining our factories and industrial equipment in first-class working order by expenditure on account of depreciation of plant. On the other side of the balance-sheet we can put a large amount of new machinery introduced, which may or may not be useful for industrial purposes after the war; greatly improved methods of organisation, the effect of which may or may not be spoilt when the war is over by uncomfortable relations between Capital and Labour; and our loans to Allies and Dominions, some of which may have to be written off, and most of which will return us no interest for some time to come, or will at first pay us interest if we lend our debtors the money to pay it with. What the country will need, above all, on the material side, is an abundant revenue, which can only be produced by vigorous and steady effort in industry, which, again, can only be forthcoming if the machinery of credit and finance is given the fullest possible freedom to provide every one who wants to engage in industry and increase the output of the country with the financial facilities, without which nothing can be done.

Is it, then, wise at such a time to impose restrictions by a drastic tightening up of the Companies Act, upon those who wish by financial activity, to further the efforts of industries and producers? On the contrary, it would seem to be a time to give the greatest possible freedom to the financial machine so that there shall be the least possible delay and difficulty in providing enterprise with the resources that it needs. We can only make good the ravages of war by activity in production and strict economy in consumption. What we want to do is to stimulate the people of this country to work as hard as they can, to produce as much as possible, to consume as little as possible on unnecessary enjoyment and luxury, and, so, by procuring a big balance of production over consumption, to have the largest possible volume of available goods for sale to the rest of the world, in order to rebuild our position as a creditor country, which the war's demands upon us have to some extent impaired.

It is a commonplace that if it had not been for the great mass of foreign securities, which this country held at the beginning of the war, we could not nearly so easily have financed the enormous amount of food and munitions which we have had to provide for our population, for our armies, and for the population and armies of our Allies. If, instead of holding a mass of easily marketable securities, we had had to rely, in order to pay for our purchases of foreign goods, on the productions of our own mines and factories, and on our power to borrow abroad, then we should have had to restrict very greatly the number of men we have put into the firing-line so as to keep them at home for productive work, or, by the enormous amount of our borrowings, we should have cheapened the value of British credit abroad to a much greater extent than has been the case. Our position as a great creditor country was an enormously valuable asset, not only during the war but also before it, both from a financial and industrial point of view. It gave us control of the foreign exchanges by enabling us, at any time, to turn the balance of trade in our favour by ceasing for a time to lend money abroad, and calling upon foreign countries to pay us the interest due from them. The financial connections which it implied were of the greatest possible assistance to us in enhancing British prestige, and so helping our industry and commerce to push the wares that they produced and handled.

Reform of the Companies Acts has often before the war been a more or less burning question. Whenever the public thought that it had been swindled by the company promoting machinery, it used to write letters to the newspapers and point out that it was a scandal that the sharks of the City should be allowed to prey upon the ignorant public, and that something ought to be done by Parliament to insure that investments offered to the public should somehow or other be made absolutely watertight and safe, while by some unexplained method the public would still be somehow able to derive large benefits from fortunate speculations in enterprises which turned out right. Every one must admit there have been some black pages in the history of British company promoting, and that many swindles have been perpetrated by which the public has lost its money and dishonest and third-rate promoters have retired with the spoil. The question is, however, what is the remedy for this admitted and glaring evil? Is it to be found by making the Companies Laws so strict that no respectable citizen would venture to become a director owing to the fear of penal servitude if the company on whose board he sat did not happen to pay a dividend, and that no prospectus could be issued except in the case of a concern which had already stood so severe a test that its earning capacity was placed beyond doubt? It would certainly be possible by legislative enactment to make any security that was offered as safe as Consols, and less subject to fluctuation in value. But when this had been done the effect would be very much like the effect upon rabbits of the recent fixing of their price. No more securities would be offered.

It is certainly extremely important for the future financial and industrial development of this country that the machinery of finance and company promotion should be made as clean as possible. What we want to do is to make everybody see that a great increase in output is required, that this great increase in output can only be brought about if there is a great increase in the available amount of capital, that capital can only be brought into being by being saved, and that it is therefore everybody's business, both for his own sake and that of the country, to earn as much as he can and save as much as he can so that the country's capital fund can be increased; so that industry, which will have many difficult problems to face when the war is over, shall be as far as possible relieved from any difficulty of finding all the capital that it needs. To produce these results it is highly necessary to increase the confidence of the public in the machinery of the Stock Exchange, in company promotion and all financial issues. Any one who sincerely believes that these results can be produced by tightening up the Companies Acts is not only entitled but bound to press as hard as he can for the securing of this object. But is this the right way to do it? There is much to be said at first sight for making more strict the regulations under which prospectuses have to be issued under the Companies Acts, demanding a franker statement of the profits in the past, a fuller statement concerning the prices paid to vendors, and the prices paid by vendors to sub-vendors, and so forth. Any one who sits down with a pre-war industrial prospectus in his hand can find many openings for the hand of the reformer. The accounts published by public companies might also be made fuller and more informing with advantage. But even if these obviously beneficial reforms were carried out, there would always be danger of their evasion. They might tend to the placing of securities by hole-and-corner methods without the issue of prospectuses at all, and to all the endless devices for dodging the law which are so readily provided as soon as any attempt is made by legislation to go too far ahead of public education and public feeling.

This is the real solution of this problem—publicity, the education of the public, and a higher ideal among financiers. As long as the public likes to speculate and is greedy and ignorant enough to be taken in by the wiles of the fraudulent promoter, attempts by legislation to check this gentleman's enterprise will be defeated by his ingenuity and the public's eagerness to be gulled. The ignorance of the public on the subject of its investments is abysmal, as anybody knows who is brought into practical touch with it. Just as the cure for the production of rotten and fraudulent patent medicines thrust down the public's throat by assiduous advertising is the education of the public concerning the things of its stomach, so the real cure for financial swindles is the education of the public concerning money matters, and its recognition of the fact that it is impossible to make a fortune in the City without running risks which involve the possible, not to say probable, loss of all the money with which the speculator starts. When once the public has learnt to distinguish between a speculation and an investment, and has also learnt honesty enough to be able to know whether it wants to speculate or invest, it will have gone much further towards checking the activity of the fraudulent promoter than any measure that can be recommended by the most respectable and industrious of committees. At the same time, it must be recognised by those responsible for our finance, that it is their business, and their interest, to keep the City's back premises clean; because insanitary conditions in the back yard raise a stink which fouls the whole City.

In the meantime, if gossip is to be believed, some of the members of the Government have the most disquieting intentions concerning the kind of regulations which they wish to impose on the activities of the City, especially in its financial branch. It is believed that some of the bright young gentlemen who now rule us are in favour of Government control over the investment of money placed at home, and the prohibition of the issue of foreign securities; and it is even whispered that a fantastic scheme for controlling the profits of all industrial companies, by which anything earned above a certain level is to be seized for the benefit of the nation, is now a fashionable project in influential Parliamentary circles. Every one must, of course, admit that a certain amount of control will be necessary for some time after the war. It may not be possible at once to throw open the London Money Market to all borrowers, leaving them and it to decide between them who is to be first favoured with a supply of the capital for which there will be so large a demand when the war is over. Certain industries, those especially on which our export trade depends, will have to be first served in the matter of the provision of capital. If it is a choice between the engineering or shipbuilding trades and a company that wants to start an aeroplane service between London and Brighton for the idle rich, it would not be reasonable, during the first few months after the war, that the unproductive project should be able, by bidding a high price for capital, to forestall the demand of the more useful producer. And with regard to the issue of foreign securities, there is this to be said, that foreign securities placed in London have the same effect upon foreign exchange as the import into England of goods shipped from any country; that is to say, for the time being they turn the exchange against us. On the other hand, it is a well-known commonplace that imports of securities have to be balanced by exports of goods or services; and as the times when our export trade is most active are those when most foreign securities are being placed in London, it follows that any restrictions placed upon the issue of foreign securities in London will hinder rather than help that recovery in our export trade which is so essential to the restoration of our position as a creditor country.

Moreover, our rulers must remember this, that in War-time, when all the letters sent abroad are subject to the eye of the Censor, it is possible to control the export of British funds abroad; but that in peace time (unless the censorship is to continue), it will not be possible to check foreign investment by restricting the issuing of foreign securities in London. If people see better rates to be earned abroad and more favourable prospects offered by the price of securities on foreign Stock Exchanges, they will invest abroad, whether securities are issued in London or not. As for the curious suggestion that the profits of industrial companies are henceforward to be limited and the whole balance above a statutory rate to be taken over by the State for the public good, this would be, in effect, the continuance on stricter lines of the Excess Profits Duty. As a war measure the Excess Profits Duty has much to be said for it at a time when the Government, by its inflationary policy, is putting large windfalls of profit into the hands of most people who have to hold a stock of goods and have only to hold them to see them rise in value. The argument that the State should take back a large proportion of this artificially produced profit is sound enough; but, if it is really to be the case that industry is to be asked for the future to take all the risk of enterprise and handover all the profit above a certain level to the Government, the reply of industry to such a proposition would inevitably be short, emphatic, unprintable, and by no means productive of revenue to the State.



VIII

THE YEAR'S BALANCE-SHEET

April, 1918

The Figures of the National Budget—A Large Increase in Revenue and a Larger in Expenditure—Comparisons with Last Year and with the Estimates—The Proportions borne by Taxation still too Low—The Folly of our Policy of Incessant Borrowing—Its Injustice to the Fighting Men.

At first sight the figures of revenue and expenditure for the year ending March 31st are extremely satisfactory, at any rate on the revenue side. The Chancellor anticipated a year ago a revenue from taxation and State services of L638 millions, and the receipts into the Exchequer on these accounts actually amount to L707 millions. On the expenditure side, however, the increase over the Budget estimate was very much greater. The estimate was L2290 millions, and the actual amount expended was L2696 millions. Instead, therefore, of a deficit of L1652 millions having to be met by borrowing, there was an actual gap, to be filled by this method, of, roughly, L1990 millions.

To take the revenue side of the matter first, this being by far the most cheering and satisfactory, we find that the details of the revenue, as compared with last year's, were as follows:—

Year ending Year ending Mar. 31, 1918. Mar. 31, 1917. Increase. Decrease. L L L L Customs 71,261,000 70,561,000 700,000 - Excise 38,772,000 56,380,000 - 17,608,000 Estate, etc., Duties 31,674,000 31,232,000 442,000 - Stamps 8,300,000 7,878,000 422,000 - Land Tax 665,000 640,000 25,000 - House Duty 1,960,000 1,940,000 20,000 - Income Tax and Super Tax 239,509,000 205,033,000 34,476,000 - Excess Profits Duties, etc. 220,214,000 139,920,000 80,294,000 - Land Value Duties 685,000 521,000 164,000 - Postal Service 35,300,000 34,100,000 1,200,000 - Crown Lands 690,000 650,000 40,000 - Sundry Loans, etc. 6,056,250 8,055,817 - 1,999,567 Miscellaneous 52,148,315 16,516,765 35,631,550 - - - - - 707,234,565 573,427,582 153,414,550 19,607,567 + -+ + L133,806,983 Net Increase.

A more interesting comparison perhaps is to take the actual receipts during the past financial year and compare them, not with the former year, but with the estimates of the expected yield of the various items. In this case we get the following comparisons:—

[Transcriber's Note: Corrected a typo in the table: "Sundry Loans" line should have a minus(-) instead of a plus(+) as printed.]

Actual. Estimated. Difference. L L L Customs 71,261,000 70,750,000 + 511,000 Excise 38,772,000 34,950,000 + 3,822,000 Estate Duties 31,674,000 29,000,000 + 2,674,000 Stamps 8,300,000 8,000,000 + 300,000 Land Tax and House Duty 2,625,000 2,600,000 + 25,000 Income Tax and Super Tax 239,509,000 224,000,000 + 15,509,000 Excess Profits Tax 220,214,000 200,000,000 + 20,214,000 Land Value Duties 685,000 400,000 + 285,000 Postal Services 35,300,000 33,700,000 + 1,600,000 Crown Lands 690,000 600,000 + 90,000 Sundry Loans, etc. 6,056,000 7,500,000 - 1,444,000 Miscellaneous 52,148,000 27,100,000 + 25,048,000

Certainly, the country is entitled to congratulate itself on this tremendous evidence of elasticity of revenue, and to a certain extent on the effort that it has made in providing this enormous sum of money from the proceeds of taxation and State services. But when this much has been admitted we have to hasten to add that the figures are not nearly so big as they look, and that there is much less "to write home about," as the schoolboy said, than there appears to be at first sight. Those champions of the Government methods of war finance who maintain that we have, during the past year, multiplied the pre-war revenue, of roughly, L200 millions by more than 3-1/2, so arriving at the present revenue of over L700 millions, are not comparing like with like. The statement is perfectly true on paper, and expressed in pounds sterling, but then the pound sterling of to-day is an entirely different article from the pre-war pound sterling. Owing to the system of finance pursued by our Government, and by every other Government now engaged in the war, of providing for a large part of the country's goods by the mere manufacture of new currency and credit, the buying power of the pound sterling has been greatly depreciated. By multiplying the amount of legal tender currency in the shape of Treasury notes, of token currency in the shape of silver and bronze coinage, and of banking currency through the bank deposits which are swollen by the banks' investments in Government securities, the Government has increased the amount of currency passing from hand to hand in the community while, at the same time, the volume of goods to be purchased has not been increased with anything like the same rapidity, and may, in fact, have been, actually decreased. The inevitable result has been a great flood of new money with a greatly depreciated value. Index numbers show a rise of over 100 per cent. in the average prices of commodities during the war. It is, however, perhaps unfair to assume that the buying power of the pound has actually been reduced by a half, but it is certainly safe to say that it has been reduced by a third. Therefore, the revenue raised by the Government during the past year has to be reduced by at least a third before we are justified in comparing our war achievements with the Government's pre-war revenue. If we take one-third off L707 millions it reduces the total raised during the past year by revenue to about L470 millions, less than two and a half times the pre-war revenue.

From another point of view our satisfaction with the tremendous figures of the past year's revenue has to be to some extent qualified. The great elasticity shown by the big increase of actual achievement over the Budget estimate has been almost entirely in revenue items which cannot be expected to continue to serve us when the war is over. The total increase in the receipts over estimate amounts to L69 millions, and of this L20 millions was provided by the Excess Profits Duty, a fiscal weapon which was invented during the war, and for the purpose of the war. It has always been assumed that it would be discontinued as soon as the war was over, and if it should not be discontinued its after-war effect is likely to be very unfortunate at a time when our industrial effort requires all the encouragement that it can get. Another L25 millions was provided by miscellaneous revenue, and this windfall again must be largely due to operations connected with the war. Finally, the L15-1/2 millions by which the income tax exceeded the estimate must again be largely due to inflation and extravagance on the part of the Government, which, by manufacturing money, and then spending it recklessly, puts big profits and big incomes into the hands of those who have stocks of goods to sell or who are in a position to produce them.

If, therefore, the satisfaction with which we regard the big total of the Government's revenue receipts has to be considerably modified in the cold light of close observation, the enormous increase on the expenditure side gives us very little comfort and calls for the most determined and continued criticism if our reckless Government is to be made to turn over a new leaf. In the early days of the war there was much excuse for wasting money. We had to improvise a great Army, and a great organisation for equipping it; there was no time then to look too closely into the way the money was being spent, but this excuse is long obsolete. It is not possible to waste money without also wasting the energy and working power of the nation; on this energy and working power the staying power of the country depends in its struggle to avert the greatest disaster that can be imagined for civilisation, that is, the victory of the German military power. Seeing that for many months past we have no longer been obliged to finance Russia, and to provide Russia with the mass of materials and the equipment that she required, the way in which our expenditure has mounted up during the course of the year is a very serious blot on the year's balance-sheet. We spent during the year ending March 31st, L2696 millions against L2198 millions in the previous year, an increase of close upon L500 millions; L63 millions of this increase were due to interest on war debt, the rest of it was due to increased cost of the war, and few business men will deny that very many of these extra millions might have been saved if our rulers and our bureaucratic tyrants had been imbued with any real sense of the need for conserving the energy of the nation.

Much has been done by the Committee on National Expenditure to bring home to the Government opportunities for economy, and methods by which it can be secured. Can we be equally confident that much has been done by the Government to carry out the advice that has been given by this Committee? The Treasury is frequently blamed for its inability to check the rapacity and extravagance of the spending Departments. It is very likely that the Treasury might have done more if it had not been led by its own desire for a short-sighted economy into economising on its own staff, the activity and efficiency of which was so absolutely essential to the proper spending of the nation's money. But when this has been admitted, the fact remains that the Treasury cannot, or can only with great difficulty, be stronger on the side of economy than the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and that the task of the Chancellor of the Exchequer of imposing economy on a spendthrift War Cabinet is one of extreme difficulty. I hope it is not necessary to say that I do not urge economy from any sordid desire to save the nation's money if, by its spending, victory could be secured or brought a day nearer. I only urge it because I believe that the conservation of our resources is absolutely necessary to maintain our staying power, and that these resources are at present being scandalously wasted by the Government. Inter-departmental competition is still complained of in the latest report of the National Committee on Expenditure, and there seems to be still very little evidence that the Government Departments have yet possessed themselves of the simple fact that it is only out of these resources that victory can be secured, and that any waste of them is therefore a crime against the cause of liberty and progress.

It is possible that before these lines are in print the Chancellor will have brought in his new Budget, and therefore any attempt to forecast the measures by which he will meet next year's revenue would be even more futile than most other endeavours at prophecy. But from the figures of last year as they are before us we see once more that the proportion of expenditure raised by revenue still leaves very much to be desired; L707 millions out of, roughly, L2700 millions is not nearly enough. It is true that on the expenditure side large sums have been put into assets which may some day or other be recoverable, and it is therefore impossible to assume with any approach to accuracy what the actual cost of the war has been for us during the past year. We have made, for instance, very large advances to our Allies and Dominions, and it need not be said that our advances to our own Dominions may be regarded as quite as good as if they were still in our own pockets; but in the case of our Allies, our loans to Russia are a somewhat questionable asset, and our loans to our other brothers-in-arms cannot be regarded as likely to be recoverable for some time to come, owing to the severity with which the war's pressure has been laid upon them. With regard to the other assets in which the Government has invested our money, such as factories, machinery, ships, supplies and food, etc., it is at least possible that considerable loss may be involved in the realisation of some of them. It is, however, possible that the actual cost of the war to us during the year that is past may turn out some day to have been in the neighbourhood of L2000 millions. If, on the other hand, we deduct from the L700 millions raised by revenue the L200 millions which represent the normal pre-war cost of Government to this country we find that the proportion of war's cost raised out of revenue is slightly over 25 per cent. This proportion must be taken with all reserve for the reasons given above, but in any case it is very far below the 47 per cent. of the war's cost raised out of revenue by our ancestors in the course of the Napoleonic wars.