Do you not realize that the State is a thing of great importance and should not be disturbed carelessly? How can you then experiment with it and treat it as if you were putting a chest into a dead hole, saying "Let me place it here for the moment and I will see to it later." The status of the State can be likened to marriage between man and woman. The greatest care should be taken during courtship. The lady should then exercise care to see that the man whom she is taking to be a life companion is worthy of her. During this period it is the duty of her relatives and friends to point out to her any danger or misunderstanding even to the extent of offending her feelings. But if you leave her alone at this stage when there is plenty of time to change her course, and—what is more—urge her to tie the knot despite incompatibility, what right have you afterwards to make the impudent suggestion to the wife that her husband is not a man to whom she should cling for life? Is such a course a charitable way of doing things?

If indeed the republican cause is enough to cause the destruction of the nation then you, the advocates of monarchy, have placed the country in a position from which she has no hope of ever coming out independent. You are the men who—to the best of your ability—inculcated and pressed the adoption of the republican cause. The proverb says, "If now, why not then?" How many days can a person live that you, not satisfied with one great sin, are again to commit another. It is not long since the Republic was first established; yet you, the veterans of republicanism, are the leaders to-day in advocating the overthrow of the Republic. Yes. It is indeed strange that I, a man who once opposed the republican cause, should now be opposing you. Nothing is stranger and nothing is so fateful.

But our modern critics say we prefer a constitutional monarchy to an autocratic republic. Now whether we are constitutional or not is a question concerning the administration, while the question whether we are republican or not is a question concerning the form or status of the country. We have always held that the question of Kuo-ti is above discussion and that what we should consider is the actual condition of administration. If the administration (government) is constitutional, then it matters not whether the country is a Republic or a Monarchy. If the government is not constitutional then neither a republic nor a monarchy will avail. There is no connexion, therefore, between the question of Kuo-ti and the question of Cheng-ti. It is an absurd idea to say that in order to improve the administration we must change the Kuo-ti—the status or form of the country—as a necessity. If this idea is to be entertained for a single moment the changes even in constitutional countries will be endless. But the curious paradox is that in former days the critics said that only a republic, not a monarchy, could be constitutional; whereas, the critics now say that a monarchy, not a republic, can alone be constitutional!

IV. THE PRESIDENT AND THE CONSTITUTION

Let me therefore lay down a simple definition of what a Constitution is before discussing whether the contentions of the critics are reasonable. My opponents will agree with me that the main principle of a constitutional government is that the legislative organ should always balance the executive and that the exercising of the administrative power is always limited to a certain extent. They will also agree that the most important point of a so-called constitutional monarchy is that the monarch should act as a figurehead, and that the establishment of a responsible cabinet is an indispensable accompaniment. If these simple principles are recognized then we must put up the theory for discussion. Let us then raise the question who shall be the monarch. In plain words, is the person in our mind the President? or any other person? (In view of the repeated declarations of the President that he will never consent to become an Emperor, this suggestion on my part is a gross insult to his character, but I crave to excuse myself as this is only mere speculation and supposition.) What shall we do with the President if we find another man? The President, having so long borne the burdens of the State, will certainly be only too willing to vacate his post to live in retirement as far as his own person is concerned, but can we imagine that the country will allow the President to retire? If not, then are we going to ask the President to form a responsible cabinet under a figurehead monarch? Even if we take it for granted that the President, out of love for the country, would be willing to sacrifice his own principles and yield to the wish of the country, it will be dangerous indeed if he—a person on whom the whole nation depends—is placed in the path of parliament. Therefore the contention that a constitutional monarchy will be attained if a person other than the President be made a monarch is false and baseless.

Shall we then make the present President a monarch? Of course the President will not consent to this. But leaving this aside let us suppose that the President, in consideration of the permanent welfare of the country, is willing to sacrifice everything to satisfy the wish of the people, do we expect that he will become a mere figurehead? A figurehead monarch is, to adapt the saying of the west, a fat porker, a guinea-pig, that is, good as an expensive ornament. Will it be wise to place so valuable a personage in so idle a position at a time when the situation is so extremely critical?

Even if we are willing to suffer the President to become a figurehead it will remain a question whether a responsible cabinet can ever be formed. I do not say that the President will not allow a responsible cabinet to exist under him. My contention is that there is no one, within my knowledge, who commands respect enough and is capable of taking over the responsibilities of President Yuan. For who can replace the Great President in coping with our numerous difficulties? If we select an ordinary man and make him bear the great burdens, we will find that in addition to his lack of ability rendering him unequal to the occasion, his lack of dominating influence will disqualify him from exercising authority. It was for the purpose of meeting the requirements of the existing conditions that the Cabinet system was changed into a Presidential system—an excellent substitution for a weakened administration. Conditions in the next two or three years will not be very much different from what they are now. Therefore, the contention that the administration will be changed overnight for the better after a change in the form of the State is, if not a wicked untruth to deceive the common people, the ridiculous absurdity of a bookworm. Thus the theory that a constitutional monarchy will immediately follow, if the President consents to become a monarch, is also fallacious.

Can it be possible that those who are now holding up the constitutional principle as a shield for their monarchical views have a different definition for the term "constitution"? The Ching (Manchu) Dynasty considered itself as possessing a constitution in its last days. Did we recognize it as such? Let me also ask the critics what guarantee they have to offer that the constitution will be put into effect without hindrance as soon as the form of State is changed. If they cannot give any definite guarantee, then what they advocate is merely an absolute monarchy and not a constitutional monarchy. As it is not likely to be a constitutional monarchy, we may safely assume that it will be an imperial autocracy. I cannot regard it as a wise plan if, owing to dislike of its defects, the Republic should be transformed into an Imperial autocracy. Owing to various unavoidable reasons, it is excusable in spite of violent opposition to adopt temporarily autocratic methods in a republican country. But if the plan proposed by present-day critics be put into effect, that on the promise of a constitution we should agree to the adoption of a monarchy, then the promise must be definitely made to the country at the time of transition that a constitutional government will become an actuality. But if, after the promise is made, existing conditions are alleged to justify the continuance of autocratic methods, I am afraid the whole country will not be so tolerant towards the Chief Executive. To assume outwardly the role of constitutional government, but in reality to rule in an unconstitutional manner, was the cause of the downfall of the Ching Dynasty. The object lesson is not obscure. Let us take warning by it.

V. FALLACIES OF THE MONARCHISTS

If, on the other hand, the present-day critics are really in earnest for a constitution, then I am unable to understand why they believe that this cannot be secured under the Republic but must be obtained in a roundabout way by means of a monarchy. In my view the real hindrances to the adoption of a constitution at the present day in China are the existing conditions, viz. the attitude of the officials and the traditions and intellectual standards of the people. But these hindrances have not resulted from the adoption of republicanism. Therefore they cannot be expected to disappear with the disappearance of the Republic. For instance, from the President downward to the minor official of every official organ in the capital or in the provinces, every one inclines to be independent of the law, and considers it convenient to deal with affairs as he pleases. This is the greatest obstacle to constitutional government. Now has that anything to do with the change or not of the form of State? Again, the absence, on the part of the people, of interest in political affairs, of knowledge of politics, of political morality and strength, and their inability to organize proper political parties to make use of an inviolable parliament, are also hindrances to the attainment of a constitution. Now what have these things to do with a change in the form of the States? If I were to go on naming such hindrances one by one, I should count my fingers many times over and I should not be through. Yet it is quite plain that not a single one of these hindrances can be attributed to republicanism.

To say that what we cannot get under the republic can be secured immediately upon accepting a monarchical regime, or to say that what can be secured under a monarchical regime can never be secured in a republican period is beyond the understanding of a stupid man like myself, although I have searched my brain for a valid reason.

My view is that if China is really in earnest for a constitution, the President should set the example himself by treating the Constitutional Compact as sacredly inviolable and compel his subordinates to do the same. Every letter of the compact should be carried out and no attempt should be made to step beyond its limits.

Meantime give the people as many opportunities as possible to acquaint themselves with political affairs, and do not stifle the aspirations of the people or weaken their strength or damp their interest or crush their self-respect. Then within a few years we shall be rewarded with results. If, instead of doing all these things, we vainly blame the form of State, we are, as Chu Tse says, like a boat that blames the creek for its curves.

The most powerful argument of those who advocate a change to a monarchy is that there is every possibility of disturbance at the time of a Presidential election. This is a real danger. It is for this reason that ten years ago I did not dare to associate myself with the advocates of republicanism. If the critics want to attack me on this point to support of their contentions, I advise them not to write another article but to reprint my articles written some time ago, which, I think, will be more effective. Fortunately, however, we have discovered a comparatively effective remedy. For, according to the latest President Election Law, the term of the President is to all intents and purposes a term for life. It is therefore impossible for such dangers to appear during the life of the President. What concerns us is therefore what will happen after the departure of the present President for another world. This, of course, is a question that we do not wish to touch upon; but since every one, even the patriarchs, must die some day, let us face the matter openly. If Heaven blesses China and allows the Great President to devote himself to the country for ten or more years—during which he will be able to assert the authority of the government, cleanse officialdom, store-up strength, consolidate the country, and banish all hidden dangers—then there will be nothing to choose between a republic or a monarchy. If, on the other hand, Heaven should not be pleased so to favour us and takes away our Great President before he is half through with his great task, then the fate of China is sealed. No changes in the form of State will avail under any circumstances. Therefore the question whether China will be left in peace or not depends entirely on the length of years the Great President will live and what he will be able to accomplish in his lifetime. Whether the country is ruled as a republic or a monarchy, the consequences will be the same.

Do you still doubt my words? Let me go deeper into the analysis. The difference between a republic and a monarchy lies only in the methods of succession of the head of the nation. It is evident that although a certain law of succession may be made during the lifetime of the Head, it cannot take effect until his death; and whether or not the effect thus intended will come up to expectations will depend on two factors: (1) whether or not the merits and personal influence of the predecessor will continue effective after his death, and (2) whether or not there will be unscrupulous and insubordinate claimants at the death of the Head, and, if any, the number of such men and whether the point of dispute they raise be well-founded. If these are taken as the basis for discerning the future we will arrive at the same conclusion whether the country be a republic or a monarchy.

VI. THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LAW

The Presidential Election Law, however, provides that the successor should be nominated by his predecessor, and the name of the successor so nominated is to be locked in the golden box in the stone strong-room. The President may now, on the one hand, multiply his merits and strengthen his personal influence so that the whole country will gladly bow to his wishes to the extent that even after his death they will not want to disobey his last wish, and on the other hand, the President may quietly ascertain the likely causes which would produce dissension, and take suitable steps to prevent and be rid of them. If the seed of dissension is in the ordinances, then alter the ordinances so that they may not be used as a tool by possible claimants. If the seed of dissension is in a person then cultivate that man, lead him to righteousness, place him in a suitable position so that he may be protected from temptation. Meanwhile let the President carefully select his successor on whom he may eventually lay the responsibilities of State (according to the Presidential Election Law the President is at liberty to suggest any one he likes, his own son or some one else). Let the nominee be placed in a responsible position so as to bring him to public notice. Give him real authority so that he may establish his influence. Place his name at the head of other men of little consequence in the golden box. Then there will be absolutely no ground for dispute when the time comes to open the box.

If every President will do likewise this system can be used without fear of a break for hundreds of years. Otherwise we will have only the Imperial system on paper to rely on for assistance, which is not even to be thought of. A glance through the pages of Chinese history will show the numerous cases in the reign of Emperors when princes fought in the very confines of the Emperor's palace while the corpse of their royal father lay unburied in the hall. Thus it is seen that the hidden cause of the safety or otherwise of the country does not lie with the mere formality of a constitution either in a republic or a monarchy.

VII. THE CASE OF DIAZ, THE DICTATOR

The critics bring up the example of Mexico where live rivals have been struggling with each other for the presidency, and the internal confusion of the Central and South American republics as well as Portugal, as an unquestionable proof of their contention that a republic is not so good as a monarchy. I imagine that the idea of these critics is that all these disturbances can be avoided if all these republics were changed into monarchies. Let me tell them that Diaz ruled over Mexico for thirty years, and only died as an exile in May last (I am not quite sure of the exact month). If indeed the struggle in Mexico was a fight for succession then the fight should not have begun until this year. And indeed if it were necessary to have a monarch to avoid the disturbance, and supposing that Diaz, thirty years ago, had a man like Dr. Goodnow to make the suggestion, and men like the Chou An Hui to spread it, and suppose that Diaz boldly took the advice and set up an Imperial system for himself, would Mexico then have a peace that would last as long as the ages?

If Diaz had assumed the throne I am positive he would long ago have been an exile in a foreign country before his imperial system could have come into effect or he himself become the proud founder of a new dynasty. What he would have held as an imperial charter would have become a mere scrap of paper. If he could not prevent rebellion even during his lifetime how can we expect an empty Imperial system to prevent it after his death. Even a child can see this. The disturbances in Mexico were unavoidable no matter under a republic or a monarchy. The reason? It is because Diaz, under the mask of a republic, actually played the role of a despot. During all the thirty years he held office he never devoted himself to the strengthening of the fundamental things of State, but diligently strengthened his own position. He massed an enormous number of troops for his own protection so that he might overawe the people. For fear that the troops might become arrogant and insubordinate, he provoked disagreement among them in order that he might play them round his fingers. He banished all those who opposed him, relying on force alone. In dealing with those who were really patriotic, he either corrupted their character by buying them with silver or removed them by assassination. He was a vainglorious man and spent money like water. From the foreign capitalists he borrowed in a most indiscriminate manner, while on the Mexican people he levied all sorts of cruel taxes. Thus the strength of the people was drained and the resources of the country were exhausted, creating a position over which he eventually had no control whatever. Ten years ago I wrote an article in the Hsin Min Tsung Pao remarking that Diaz was a matchless fraud. I said then that a nation-wide calamity would befall Mexico after his death and that the Mexican nation would be reduced to a mere shadow. (My friend Mr. Tang Chio-tun also wrote an article, before the internal strife in Mexico broke out, on the same subject and in an even more comprehensive way.) Luckily for Diaz he ruled under the mask of republicanism, for only by so doing did he manage to usurp and keep the presidential chair for thirty years. He would long ago have disappeared had he attempted to assume the role of an emperor. This is also true of the other republics of Central and South America. Their presidents almost without a single exception used military force as a stepping-stone to the presidential chair. We have yet to see the last military aspirant. The unsuitability of the country to the republican system is of course one of the reasons but I cannot agree with those who say that this is the only reason.

As to Portugal it is true that the change from the monarchy to republic has not stopped internal disturbance; but is it not a fact that Portugal became a republic as a result of internal disturbance and was it not during the existence of the monarch that the disturbance started? It is ridiculous to suppose that a republic will surely court disturbance while a monarchy will surely ensure peace and order. Is not Persia a monarchy? Is not Turkey a monarchy? Is not Russia a monarchy?

Read their history in recent decades and see how many years of peace they have had. There have been no election of presidents in these countries. Why then such unrest?

Again, why was the state of affairs during the Sixteen States of the Five Dynasty-Period and the Ten States of the Five Successions as deplorably miserable and disastrous as the state of affairs now prevailing in Mexico, although there was no election of Presidents then? In quoting objective facts as illustrations the critic should not allow his choice to be dictated by his personal like or dislike. Otherwise he will not be deceiving others than himself. Soberly speaking, any form of state is capable of either ensuring a successful government or causing rebellion. And nine cases out of ten the cause of rebellion lies in the conditions of the administration and not in the form of state. It cannot be denied, however, that the chances of rebellion and dissension are more frequent and easier when the form of state does not suit the conditions of the people. That is why I did not advocate republicanism; and even now I am not a blind believer in republicanism. In this I agree with you, the Chou An Hui people.

The reason why I have not decided to advocate boldly a change in the form of state is because for years my heart has been burdened with an unspeakable sorrow and pain, believing that ever since the mistake made in 1911 the hope for China's future has dwindled to almost nothing. On one hand I have been troubled with our inability to make the Republic a success, and on the other I have been worrying over the fact that it would be impossible to restore the monarchy. The situation has so worked on my troubled mind that at times I seemed to be beside myself. But as the whole country seemed to be already in a state of desperation I have come to the conclusion that it would not do any good to add pain to sorrow. Therefore, instead of uttering pessimistic views I have been speaking words of encouragement to raise our spirits. In this, however, I have exhausted my own strength. My friend, Mr. Hsu Fo-su, told me some five or six years ago that it was impossible for China to escape a revolution, and as a result of the revolution could not escape from becoming a republic, and by becoming a republic China would be bound to disappear as a nation. I have been meditating on these words of ill-omen and sought to help the country to escape from his prediction but I have not yet found the way.

VIII. "DIVINITY DOTH HEDGE A KING"

Now my friends, you have stated in a worthy manner the reasons why the republican form of state cannot assist China to maintain her existence; now let me state why it is impossible to restore the monarchical system. The maintenance of the dignity of a monarch depends on a sort of mystical, historical, traditional influence or belief. Such an influence was capable of producing unconsciously and spontaneously a kind of effect to assist directly or indirectly in maintaining order and imparting blessing to the country. In this lies the value of a monarchy. But dignity is a thing not to be trifled with. Once it is trodden down it can never rise again. We carve wood or mould clay into the image of a person and call it a god (idol). Place it in a beautiful temple, and seat it in a glorious shrine and the people will worship it and find it miraculously potent. But suppose some insane person should pull it down, tread it under foot and throw it into a dirty pond and suppose some one should discover it and carry it back to its original sacred abode, you will find the charm has gone from it. Ever since the days of monarchical government the people have looked on the monarch with a sort of divine reverence, and never dared to question or criticize his position. After a period of republicanism, however, this attitude on the part of the common people has been abruptly terminated with no possibility of resurrection. A survey of all the republics of the world will tell us that although a large number of them suffered under republican rule, not a single one succeeded in shaking itself free of the republican fetters. Among the world republics only France has had her monarchical system revived twice after the republic was first inaugurated. The monarchy, however, disappeared almost immediately. Thus we may well understand how difficult it is for a country to return to its monarchical state after a republican regime. It may be said that China has had only a short experience of the republican regime; but it must also be remembered that the situation has been developing for more than ten years and in actual existence for about four years. During the period of development the revolutionists denounced the monarch in most extravagant terms and compared him to the devil. Their aim was to kill the mystic belief of the people in the Emperor; for only by diminishing the dignity of the monarch could the revolutionary cause make headway. And during and after the change all the official documents, school text-books, press views and social gossip have always coupled the word monarch with reprobation. Thus for a long while this glorious image has been lying in the dirty pond! Leaving out the question that it is difficult to restore the monarchy at the present day, let us suppose that by arbitrary method we do succeed in restoring it. You will then find that it will be impossible for it to regain in former dignity and influence.

Turning to another aspect, the most natural course would seem to be a revival of the last dynasty. It might have been possible for a Charles II and Louis XVIII of China to appear again, if not for the hatred of racial domination. But since the last dynasty was Manchu this is out of the question. If a new dynasty were set up it would require many years of hard labour and a great deal of organizing to succeed. Even then only a few have succeeded in this way in prolonging their dynasties by actually convincing the people of their merits. Therefore for several years I have been saying to myself that it would be easier to strengthen the country and place it on a sounder basis if it were possible for us to return to our monarchical state. And to revive the monarchical government there are two ways.

One is that after thoroughly reforming the internal administration under the leadership of the present Great President, that is, when all the neglected affairs of the country have been well attended to, every family in the land made happy and prosperous, the army well-trained and all the necessary bitterness "eaten," the President, when a suitable opportunity presented itself, should have the rare fortune to gain a decisive victory over a foreign foe; then his achievements would be such that the millions of people would compel him to ascend the throne, and so he would hand his sceptre on to his descendants for endless ages.

The second possibility is that after a second great internal disturbance, resulting in the whole country being thrown into a state of utter confusion and cut up into small independent states, the President should suppress them and unite the country into one empire. We will, of course, not pray for the second possibility to come about as then there will be little left of the Chinese people. And no one can be certain whether the person who shall succeed in suppressing the internal strife will be a man of our own race or not. Thus the result will not differ very much from national extinction. As to the first possibility, we know that an exceedingly capable man is now in a most powerful position; let him be given time and he will soon show himself to be a man of success. Does not the last ray of hope for China depend on this?

IX. THE UNRIPE PEAR

This is why I say we should not deliberately create trouble for the Republic at this time to add to the worries of the Great President so that he might devote his puissant thoughts and energies to the institution of great reforms. Then our final hope will be satisfied some day. But what a year and what a day we are now living in? The great crisis (Note: The reference is to the Japanese demands) has just passed and we have not yet had time for a respite. By the pressure of a powerful neighbour we have been compelled to sign a "certain" Treaty. Floods, drought, epidemics and locusts visit our country and the land is full of suffering while robbers plunder the people. In ancient times this would have been a day for the Imperial Court to remove their ornaments and live in humiliation. What do the people of our day mean by advising and urging the President to ascend the throne? To pluck the fruit before it is ripe, injures the roots of the tree; and to force the premature birth of a child kills the mother. If the last "ray of hope" for China should be extinguished by the failure of a premature attempt to force matters, how could the advocates of such a premature attempt excuse themselves before the whole country? Let the members of the Chou An Hui meditate on this point.

The Odes say, "The people are tired. Let them have a respite." In less than four years' time from the 8th moon of the year Hsin Hai we have had many changes. Like a bolt from the blue we had the Manchu Constitution, then "the Republic of Five Races," then the Provisional President, then the formal Presidency, then the Provisional Constitution was promulgated, then it was suddenly amended, suddenly the National Assembly was convoked, suddenly it was dissolved, suddenly we had a Cabinet System, suddenly it was changed to a Presidential System, suddenly it was a short-term Presidency, suddenly it was a life-term Presidency, suddenly the Provisional Constitution was temporarily placed in a legal position as a Permanent Constitution, suddenly the drafting of the Permanent Constitution was pressed. Generally speaking the average life of each new system has been less than six months, after which a new system quite contrary to the last succeeded it. Thus the whole country has been at a loss to know where it stood and how to act; and thus the dignity and credit of the Government in the eyes of the people have been lowered down to the dust. There are many subjects respecting internal and diplomatic affairs which we can profitably discuss. If you wish to serve the country in a patriotic way you have many ways to do so. Why stir the peaceful water and create a sea of troubles by your vain attempt to excite the people and sow seeds of discord for the State?

X. THE ASSEVERATIONS OF THE PRESIDENT

One or two points more, and I am finished. These will be in the nature of a straight talk to the Chou An Hui. The question I would ask in plain words is, who is the person you have in your mind as the future Emperor? Do you wish to select a person other than the Great President? You know only too well that the moment the President relieves his shoulder of the burdens of State the country will be thrown into confusion. If you entertain this plot with the deliberation of a person bent upon the destruction of the country, then the four hundred million of people will not excuse you.

Is the man you have in mind the present President? Heaven and earth as well as all living creatures in China and other lands know what the President swore to when he took the oath of office as President. Rumours have indeed been circulated, but whenever they reached the ears of the President he has never hesitated to express his righteous mind, saying that no amount of pressure could compel him to change his determination. All officials who have come into close contact with the President have heard such sentiments from the lips of the President on not a few occasions. To me his words are still ringing in my ears. General Feng Kuo-chang has conveyed to me what he was told by the President. He says that the President has prepared a "few rooms" in England, and that if the people would not spare him he would flee to the refuge he has prepared. Thus we may clearly see how determined the President is. Can it be possible that you have never heard of this and thus raise this extraordinary subject without any cause? If the situation should become such that the President should be compelled to carry out his threat and desert the Palace, what would you say and do then?

Or, perhaps, you are measuring the lordly conduct of a gentleman with the heart of a mean man, saying to yourself that what the President has been saying cannot be the truth, but, as Confucius has said, "say you are not but make a point to do it," and that, knowing that he would not condemn you, you have taken the risk. If so, then what do you take the President for? To go back on one's words is an act despised by a vagabond. To suggest such an act as being capable of the President is an insult, the hideousness of which cannot be equalled by the number of hairs on one's head. Any one guilty of such an insult should not be spared by the four hundred million of people.

XI. THE CHOU AN HUI AND THE LAW

Next let me ask if you have read the Provisional Constitution, the Provisional Code, the Meeting and Association Law, the Press Regulations, the various mandates bearing on the punishment of persons who dare conspire against the existing form of state? Do you not know that you, as citizens of the Republic, must in duty bound observe the Constitution and obey the laws and mandates? Yet you have dared openly to call together your partisans and incite a revolution (the recognized definition in political science for revolution is "to change the existing form of state"). As the Judiciary have not been courageous enough to deal with you since you are all so closely in touch with the President, you have become bolder still and carry out your sinister scheme in broad daylight. I do not wish to say what sort of peace you are planning for China; but this much I know, that the law has been violated by you to the last letter. I will be silent if you believe that a nation can be governed without law. Otherwise tell me what you have got to say?

It is quite apparent that you will not be satisfied with mere shouting and what you aim at is the actual fulfilment of your expectations. That is, you wish that once the expected monarchy is established it may continue for ever. Now by what principle can such a monarchy continue for ever, except that the laws and orders of that dynasty be obeyed, and obeyed implicitly by all, from the Court down to the common people? For one to adopt methods that violate the law while engaged in creating a new dynasty is like a man, who, to secure a wife, induces the virtuous virgin to commit fornication with him, on the plea that as a marriage will be arranged preservation of her virtue need not be insisted upon. Can such a man blame his wife for immorality after marriage? If, while still citizens of a republican country, one may openly and boldly call meetings and organize societies for the overthrow of the Republic, who shall say that we may not in due time openly and boldly call meetings and organize societies for the overthrow of the monarchy? What shall you say if in future there should be another foreign doctor to suggest another theory and another society to engage in another form of activity? The Odes have it, "To prevent the monkey from climbing a tree is like putting mud on a man in the mire." For a person to adopt such methods while engaged in the making of a dynasty is the height of folly. Mencius says, "a Chuntse when creating a dynasty aims at things that can be handed down as good examples." Is it not the greatest misfortune to set up an example that cannot be handed down as a precedent? The present state of affairs is causing me no small amount of anxiety.

XII. A POSTSCRIPT

A copy of Yang Tu's pamphlet, "Constitutional Monarchy or the Salvation of China" reached me after I had finished writing the above discussion. On a casual glance through it I alighted upon the following passage: "What is known as a constitutional country is a country which has definite laws and in which no one, from the ruler down to the common people, can take any action that is not permitted by law. Good men cannot do good outside of the bounds of law; neither can bad men do evil in violation of it." This is indeed a passage that breathes the very spirit of constitutionalism. Let us ask Mr. Yang if the activities of the Chou An Hui, of which he is the President, are acts within the bounds of law? Mr. Yang is a good man. It is therefore possible for him to believe that he is not doing evil in violation of the law; but has he not at least been doing good outside of the bounds of law? If an advocate of constitutional monarchy is capable of doing such unlawful acts, we may easily imagine what sort of a constitutional monarchy he advocates; and we may also easily imagine what the fate of his constitutional monarchy will be.

Mencius says, "Am I argumentative? I cannot help it." Who would have thought that a man, who cares not for the question of the form of state like myself and who opposed you—Mr. Yang Tu—during your first campaign for the change in the form of State—you were a Republican then—would be opposing you again now that you are engaged in advocating another change in the form of state? A change in the form of government is a manifestation of progress while a change in the status of the State is a sign of revolution. The path of progress leads to further progress, but the path of revolution leads to more revolution. This is a fact proved by theory as well as actual experience. Therefore a man who has any love for his country, is afraid to mention revolution; and as for myself I am always opposed to revolution. I am now opposing your theory of monarchical revolution, just as I once opposed your theory of republican revolution, in the same spirit, and I am doing the same duty. My belief is that since the country is now in a most weakened state, we may yet fail even if we do all we can at all times to nurse its wound and gather up its scattered strength. How can any one devote his time and energy to the discussion of a question of no importance such as the form of state, and so obstruct the progress of the administration? But this is not all. The whole country is now stirred up to an excited state and is wondering how long this ever-changing situation is going to stop. The loss caused by this state of affairs, though unnoticed, is incalculable. In the Odes, it is written "Alas! my brethren. Befriended of the countrymen. No one wants rebellion. What has no parents?" Let the critics remember this—let them remember.

Some will say to me that a revolution is an unavoidable thing. Of all things only the facts cannot be undone. Why then should I bother myself especially as my last effort fell on deaf ears. This I realize; but it is not my nature to abandon what is my conviction. Therefore, although aware of the futility of my words, I cannot refrain from uttering them all the same. Chu Yuan drowned himself in the Pilo and Chia Sheng died from his horse. Ask them why they did these things, they will say they did not know. Once I wrote a piece of poetry containing the following lines:

"Ten years after you will think of me, The country is excited. To whom shall I speak?"

I have spoken much in my life, and all my words have become subjects for meditation ten years after they were uttered. Never, however, have any of my words attracted the attention of my own countrymen before a decade has spent itself. Is it a misfortune for my words or a misfortune to the Country? My hope is that there will be no occasion for the country to think of my present words ten years hence.



CHAPTER XI

THE DREAM EMPIRE

"THE PEOPLE'S VOICE," AND THE ACTION OF THE POWERS (FROM SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER, 1915)

The effect of Liang Ch'i-chao's appeal was noticeable at once: there were ominous mutterings among all the great class of "intellectuals" who form such a remarkable element throughout the country. Nevertheless there were no overt acts attempted against the authority of Peking. Although literary and liberal China was now thoroughly convinced that the usurpation which Yuan Shih-kai proposed to practise would be a national disgrace and lead to far-reaching complications, this force were too scattered and too much under the power of the military to tender at once any active opposition as would have been the case in Western countries. Yuan Shih-kai, measuring this situation very accurately, and aware that he could easily become an object of popular detestation if the people followed the lead of the scholars, decided to place himself outside and beyond the controversy by throwing the entire responsibility on the Tsan Cheng Yuan, the puppet Senate he had erected in place of the parliament destroyed by his coup d'etat of the 4th November, 1913. In a message issued to that body on the 6th September, 1915, he declared that although in his opinion the time was inappropriate for making any change in the form of State, the matter demanded the most careful and serious consideration which he had no doubt would be given to it. If a change of so momentous a character as was now being publicly advocated were decided in too great a haste it might create grave complications: therefore the opinion of the nation should be consulted by the method of the ballot. And with this nunc dimittis he officially washed his hands of a plot in which he had been the prime mover.

The Senate now openly delivered itself over to the accomplishment of the scheme which had been broached by Yang Tu, the monarchist pamphleteer. Although this individual still posed as the leader of the movement, in reality he was nothing but the tool of a remarkable man, one Liang Shih-yi, famous throughout the country as the most unscrupulous and adroit politician the Revolution had thrown up. This person, who is known to have been gravely implicated in many assassinations, and who was the instrument used in 1912 by Yuan Shih-kai to persuade the Manchu Imperial Family to abdicate, had in a brief four years accumulated a vast fortune by the manipulations he had indulged in as Director-General of The Bank of Communications, an institution which, because it disposed of all the railway receipts, was always in funds even when the Central Treasury itself was empty. By making himself financially indispensable to Yuan Shih-kai he had become recognized as the power behind the Throne; for although, owing to foreign clamour, he had been dismissed from his old office of Chief Secretary to the President (which he had utilized to effect the sale of offices far and wide) he was a daily visitor to the Presidential Palace and his creatures daily pulled all the numerous strings.

The scheme now adopted by the Senate was to cause the provinces to flood Peking with petitions, sent up through the agency of "The Society for the Preservation of Peace," demanding that the Republic be replaced by that form of government which the people alone understood, the name Constitutional Monarchy being selected merely as a piece of political window-dressing to please the foreign world. A vast amount of organizing had to be done behind the scenes before the preliminaries were completed: but on the 6th October the scheme was so far advanced that in response to "hosts of petitions" the Senate, sitting in its capacity of Legislative Chamber (Li Fa Yuan) passed a so-called King-making bill in which elaborate regulations were adopted for referring the question under discussion to a provincial referendum. According to this naive document the provinces were to be organized into electoral colleges, and the votes of the electors, after being recorded, were to be sent up to Peking for scrutiny. Some attempt was made to follow Dr. Goodnow's advice to secure as far as possible that the various classes of the community should be specially represented: and provision was therefore made in the voting for the inclusion of "learned scholars," Chambers of Commerce, and "oversea merchants," whose votes were to be directly recorded by their special delegates. To secure uniformly satisfactory results, the whole election was placed absolutely and without restriction in the hands of the high provincial authorities, who were invited to bestow on the matter their most earnest attention.



In a Mandate, issued in response to this Bill, Yuan Shih-kai merely limits himself to handing over the control of the elections and voting to the local authorities, safe in the knowledge that every detail of the plot had been carefully worked out in advance. By this time the fact that a serious and dangerous movement was being actively pushed had been well-impressed on the Peking Legations, and some anxiety was publicly manifested. It was known that Japan, as the active enemy of Yuan Shih-kai, could not remain permanently silent: and on the 28th October in association with Great Britain and Russia, she indeed made official inquiries at the Chinese Foreign Office regarding the meaning of the movement. She was careful, however, to declare that it was her solicitude for the general peace that alone dictated her action.[18] Nevertheless, her warning had an unmistakable note about it and occasioned grave anxiety, since the ultimatum of the previous May in connection with the Twenty-one Demands had not been forgotten. At the beginning of November the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, replying verbally to these representations, alleged that the movement had gone too far for it to be stopped and insisted that no apprehensions need be felt by the Foreign Powers regarding the public safety. Dissatisfied by this reply all the Entente Powers, now including France and Italy, renewed their representations, receiving a few days later a formal Note in which absolute guarantees were given that law and order would be sedulously preserved. Baffled by this firmness, and conscious that further intervention in such matter would be fraught with grave difficulties, the Entente Powers decided to maintain a watchful attitude but to do no more publicly. Consequently events marched forward so rapidly that by December the deed was done, and Yuan Shih-kai had apparently been elected unanimously Emperor of China by the provincial ballot.

The explanation of this extraordinary business was only made public months later with the outbreak of the Yunnan rebellion and the secession of the Southern provinces. In a remarkable publication, entitled satirically "The People's Will," the Southern Republican Party, which now possessed access to all the confidential archives of the provinces, published in full the secret instructions from Peking which had brought about this elaborate comedy. Though considerations of space prevent all documents being included in our analysis, the salient ones are here textually quoted so as to exhibit in its proper historical light the character of the chief actor, and the regime the Powers had supported—until they were forced by Japan to be more honest. These documents, consisting mainly of telegraphic dispatches sent from Peking to the provinces, do more to explain the working of the Government of China than a dozen treatises; for they drag into the garish light of day the most secret Yamen machinery and show precisely how it is worked.

The play was set in motion by a circular code telegram sent out on the 30th August by Tuan Chih-kuei, Governor of Moukden and one of Yuan Shih-kai's most trusted lieutenants, the device of utilizing a centre other than the capital to propagate revolutionary ideas being a familiar one and looked upon as a very discreet procedure. This initial telegram is a document that speaks for itself:

CODE TELEGRAM DATED AUGUST 30, 1915, FROM TUAN CHI-KUEI, MILITARY GOVERNOR OF MOUKDEN, ET ALIA, CONTAINING INSTRUCTIONS FOR PRESENTING PETITIONS TO PEKING IN THE NAME OF THE CITIZENS OF THE PROVINCES

To the Military and Civil Governors of the Provinces:—

(To be deciphered personally with the Council of State Code)

The proposal of changing the form of the State into a monarchy having been unanimously agreed to by the provinces, the first step to be taken has now to be decided. We propose that petitions be sent in the name of the citizens of the respective provinces to the Senate acting in the capacity of Legislative Chamber, so as to demonstrate the wish of the people to have a monarchy. The acting Legislative Chamber will then decide upon the course to be adopted.

The plan suggested is for each province to send in a separate petition, the draft of which will be made in Peking and wired to the respective provinces in due course. If you approve, you will insert your name as well as those of the gentry and merchants of the province who agree to the draft. These petitions are to be presented one by one to the Legislative Chamber, as soon as it is convoked. At all events, the change in the form of the State will have to be effected under the colour of carrying out the people's will.

As leading members of political and military bodies, we should wait till the opportune moment arrives when we will give collateral support to the movement. Details of the plan will be made known to you from time to time.

This method of circular telegrams, which had been inherited from the last days of the Manchus, and vastly extended during the post-revolutionary period, was now to be used to the very utmost in indoctrinating the provinces with the idea that not only was the Republic doomed but that prompt steps must be taken to erect the Constitutional Monarchy by use of fictitious legal machinery so that it should not be said that the whole enterprise was a mere plot. Accordingly, on the 10th September, as a sequel to the telegram we have just quoted, an enormous circular message of several thousand words was sent in code from Peking to all the Military and Civil Governors in the provinces instructing them precisely how to act in order to throw a cloak over the nefarious deed. After explaining the so-called "Law on the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives" (i.e. national referendum) the following illuminating sentences occur which require no comment showing as they do what apt pupils reactionary Chinese are in the matter of ballot-fraud.

... (1) The fact that no fewer than one hundred petitions for a change in the form of State have been received from people residing in all parts of the country shows that the people are of one mind concerning this matter. Hence the words in the "General Convention Law": "to be decided by the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives," refer to nothing more than the formal approval of the Convention and are by no means intended to give room for discussion of any kind. Indeed, it was never intended that the citizens should have any choice between a republic and a monarchy. For this reason at the time of voting all the representatives must be made unanimously to advocate a change of the Republic into a Monarchy.

It behooves you, therefore, prior to the election and voting, privately to search for such persons as are willing to express the people's will in the sense above indicated. You will also make the necessary arrangements beforehand, and devise every means to have such persons elected, so that there may be no divergence of opinion when the time arrives for putting the form of the State to the vote.

(2) Article 2 provides: "The citizens' representatives shall be elected by separate ballot signed by the person voting. The person who obtains the greatest number of votes cast shall be declared elected."

The citizens' representatives, though nominally elected by the electors, are really appointed beforehand by you acting in the capacity of Superintendent of Election. The principle of separate signed ballot is adopted in this article with the object of preventing the voters from casting their votes otherwise than as directed, and of awakening in them a sense of responsibility for their votes....

These admirable principles having been officially laid down by Peking, it is not hard to understand that the Military and Civil Governors in the provinces, being anxious to retain their posts and conciliate the great personage who would be king, gave the problem their most earnest attention, and left no stone unturned to secure that there should be no awkward contretemps. On the 28th September, the Peking Government, being now entirely surrendered into the hands of the plotters, thought it advisable to give the common people a direct hint of what was coming, by sending circular instructions regarding the non-observance of the Republican anniversary (10th October). The message in question is so frankly ingenuous that it merits inclusion in this singular dossier:

CODE TELEGRAM DATED SEPTEMBER 26, 1915, FROM THE COUNCIL OF STATE TO THE MILITARY AND CIVIL GOVERNORS OF THE PROVINCES RESPECTING THE NON-OBSERVANCE OF THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE REPUBLIC

To the Military and Civil Governors and the Military Commissioners of the Provinces and the Intendant of Shanghai:—

(Code Telegram)

Now that a monarchical form of government has been advocated, the National Anniversary in commemoration of the Republic should, of course, be observed with least possible display, under the pretext either of the necessity for economy owing to the impoverished condition of the people, or of the advisability of celebrating the occasion quietly so as to prevent disturbances arising in consequence of the many rumours now afloat. In this way public peace and order may be maintained on the one hand, money and trouble saved on the other. How to put this suggestion into practice will be left to your discretion.

(Signed) COUNCIL OF STATE.

By October such progress had been made in Peking in the general work of organizing this coup d'etat that, as we have seen, the Senate had passed on the 6th of that month the so-called "King-making Bill." The very next day, so that nothing should be left in doubt, the following circular telegram was dispatched to all the provinces:

CODE TELEGRAM DATED OCTOBER 7, 1915, FROM CHU CHI-CHUN, MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR, ET ALIA, DEVISING PLANS FOR NOMINATING YUAN SHIH-KAI AS EMPEROR

To the Military and Civil Governors of the Provinces:—

(To be deciphered with the Hua Code)

Our telegram of the 12th ult. must have reached you by this time.

The Administrative Council, at a meeting held on the 4th inst., passed the Bill for a General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives. Article 12 of the Bill was amended so as to contain the following clause:—"The Superintendent of Election may, in case of necessity, delegate his functions to the several district magistrates." This will soon be communicated officially to the provinces. You are therefore requested to make the necessary preparations beforehand in accordance with the instructions contained in our telegram of the 29th September.

We propose that the following steps be taken after the votes have been duly polled:—

(1) After the form of the state has been put to the vote, the result should be reported to the sovereign (meaning Yuan Shih-kai) and to the Administrative Council in the name of the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives.

(2) In the telegrams to be sent by the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives for nominating the emperor, the following words should be specifically used: "We respectfully nominate the present President Yuan Shih-kai as Emperor of the Chinese Empire."

(3) The telegrams investing the Administrative Council with general powers to act on behalf of the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives should be dispatched in the name of the General Convention of the Citizens of the Provinces.

The drafts of the dispatches under the above-mentioned three heads will be wired to you beforehand. As soon as the votes are cast, these are to be shown to the representatives, who will sign them after perusal. Peking should be immediately informed by telegram.

As for the telegrams to be sent by the commercial, military, and political bodies, they should bear as many signatures as possible, and be wired to the Central Government within three days after the voting.

When the enthronement is promulgated by edict, letters of congratulation from the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives, as well as from the commercial, military, and political bodies, will also have to be sent in. You are therefore requested to draw up these letters in advance.

This is specially wired for your information beforehand. The details will be communicated by letter.

In ordinary circumstances it would have been thought that sufficiently implicit instructions had already been given to permit leaving the matter in the hands of the provincial authorities. Great anxiety, however, was beginning to reign in Peking owing to continual rumours that dangerous opposition, both internal and external, was developing. It was therefore held necessary to clinch the matter in such a way that no possible questions should be raised later. Accordingly, before the end of October—and only two days before the "advice" was tendered by Japan and her Allies,—the following additional instructions were telegraphed wholesale to the provinces, being purposely designed to make it absolutely impossible for any slip to occur between cup and lip. The careful student will not fail to notice in these remarkable messages that as the game develops, all disguise is thrown to the four winds, and the central and only important point, namely the prompt election and enthronement of Yuan Shih-kai as Emperor, insisted on with almost indecent directness, every possible precaution being taken to secure that end:

CODE TELEGRAM DATED OCTOBER 26, 1915, FROM CHU CHI-CHUN, MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR, ET ALIA, RESPECTING THE NOMINATION OF YUAN SHIH-KAI AS EMPEROR

To the Military and Civil Governors of the Provinces:—

(To be deciphered with the Hua Code)

Your telegram of the 24th inst. came duly to hand.

After the form of the state has been put to the vote, the nomination of Yuan Shih-kai as emperor should be made forthwith without further voting. You should address the representatives and tell them that a monarchy having been decided on, not even a single day should pass without an emperor; that the citizens' representatives present should nominate Yuan Shih-kai as the Great Emperor of the Chinese Empire; and that if they are in favour of the proposal, they should signify their assent by standing up. This done, the text of the proposed letter of nomination from the citizens should be handed to the representatives for their signatures; after which you should again address them to the effect that in all matters concerning the nomination and the petition for immediate enthronement, they may, in the name of the citizens' representatives, invest the acting Legislative Council with general powers to act on their behalf and to do the necessary things until their petition is granted. The text (already prepared) of the proposed telegram from the citizens' representatives to the acting Legislative Council should then be shown to the representatives for approval. Whereupon three separate telegrams are to be drawn up: one giving the number of votes in favour of a change in the form of the state, one containing the original text of the letter of nomination, and the third concerning the vesting of the acting Legislative Council with general powers to act on behalf of the citizens' representatives. These should be sent officially to the acting Legislative Council in the name of the citizens' representatives. You should at the same time wire to the President all that has taken place. The votes and the letter of nomination are to be forwarded to Peking in due course.

As for the exact words to be inserted in the letter of nomination, they have been communicated to you in our telegram of the 23rd inst. These characters, forty-five in all, must on no account be altered. The rest of the text is left to your discretion.

We may add that since the letter of nomination and the vesting of the acting Legislative Council with general powers to act on behalf of the citizens' representatives are matters which transgress the bounds of the law, you are earnestly requested not to send to the National Convention Bureau any telegraphic enquiry concerning them, so that the latter may not find itself in the awkward position of having to reply.

Two days after this telegram had been dispatched the longfeared action on the part of Japan had been taken and a new situation had been created. The Japanese "advice" of the 28th October was in fact a veritable bombshell playing havoc with the house of cards which had been so carefully erected. But the intrigue had gone so far, and the prizes to be won by the monarchical supporters were so great that nothing could induce them to retrace their footsteps. For a week and more a desperate struggle went on behind the scenes in the Presidential Palace, since Yuan Shih-kai was too astute a man not to understand that a most perilous situation was being rapidly created and that if things went wrong he would be the chief victim. But family influences and the voice of the intriguers proved too strong for him, and in the end he gave his reluctant consent to a further step. The monarchists, boldly acting on the principle that possession is nine points of the law, called upon the provinces to anticipate the vote and to substitute the title of Emperor for that of President in all government documents and petitions so that morally the question would be chose jugee.

CODE TELEGRAM DATED NOVEMBER 7, 1915, FROM CHU CHI-CHUN, MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR, ET ALIA, ENJOINING A STRONG ATTITUDE TOWARDS INTERFERENCE ON THE PART OF A CERTAIN FOREIGN POWER

To the Military and Civil Governors of the Provinces:—

(To be deciphered personally with the Council of State Code)

A certain foreign power, under the pretext that the Chinese people are not of one mind and that troubles are to be apprehended, has lately forced England and Russia to take part in tendering advice to China. In truth, all foreign nations know perfectly well that there will be no trouble, and they are obliged to follow the example of that power. If we accept the advice of other Powers concerning our domestic affairs and postpone the enthronement, we should be recognizing their right to interfere. Hence action should under no circumstance be deferred. When all the votes of the provinces unanimously recommending the enthronement shall have reached Peking, the Government will, of course, ostensibly assume a wavering and compromising attitude, so as to give due regard to international relations. The people, on the other hand, should show their firm determination to proceed with the matter at all costs, so as to let the foreign powers know that our people are of one mind. If we can only make them believe that the change of the republic into a monarchy will not in the least give rise to trouble of any kind, the effects of the advice tendered by Japan will ipso facto come to nought.

At present the whole nation is determined to nominate Yuan Shih-kai Emperor. All civil and military officers, being the natural leaders of the people, should accordingly give effect to the nomination. If this can be done without friction, the confidence of both Chinese and foreigners in the Government will be greatly strengthened. This is why we suggested to you in a previous telegram the necessity of immediately substituting the title of "Emperor" for "President." We trust you will concur in our suggestion and carry it out without delay.

We may add that this matter should be treated as strictly confidential.

A reply is requested.

(Signed)

The die now being cast all that was left to be done was to rush through the voting in the Provinces. Obsequious officials returned to the use of the old Imperial phraseology and Yuan Shih-kai, even before his "election," was memorialized as though he were the legitimate successor of the immense line of Chinese sovereigns who stretch back to the mythical days of Yao and Shun (2800 B.C.). The beginning of December saw the voting completed and the results telegraphed to Peking; and on the 11th December, the Senate hastily meeting, and finding that "the National Convention of Citizens" had unanimously elected Yuan Shih-kai Emperor, formally offered him the Throne in a humble petition. Yuan Shih-kai modestly refused: a second petition was promptly handed to him, which he was pleased to accept in the following historic document:

YUAN SHIH-KAI'S ACCEPTANCE OF THE IMPERIAL THRONE

The prosperity and decline of the country is a part of the responsibility of every individual, and my love for the country is certainly not less than that of others. But the task imposed on me by the designation of the millions of people is of extraordinary magnitude. It is therefore impossible for one without merit and without virtue like myself to shoulder the burdens of State involved in the enhancing of the welfare of the people, the strengthening of the standing of the country, the reformation of the administration and the advancement of civilization. My former declaration was, therefore, the expression of a sincere heart and not a mere expression of modesty. My fear was such that I could not but utter the words which I have expressed. The people, however, have viewed with increasing impatience that declaration and their expectation of me is now more pressing than ever. Thus I find myself unable to offer further argument just as I am unable to escape the position. The laying of a great foundation is, however, a thing of paramount importance and it must not be done in a hurry. I, therefore, order that the different Ministries and Bureaux take concerted action in making the necessary preparations in the affairs in which they are concerned; and when that is done, let the same be reported to me for promulgation. Meanwhile all our citizens should go on peacefully in their daily vocations with the view to obtain mutual benefit. Let not your doubts and suspicions hinder you in your work. All the officials should on their part be faithful at their posts and maintain to the best of their ability peace and order in their localities, so that the ambition of the Great President to work for the welfare of the people may thus be realized. Besides forwarding the memorial of the principal representatives of the Convention of the Representatives of Citizens and that of the provinces and special administrative area to the Cheng Shih Tang and publishing the same by a mandate, I have the honour to notify the acting Li Fan Yuan as the principal representatives of the Convention of the Representatives of Citizens, to this effect.

Cautious to the end, it will be seen that Yuan Shih-kai's very acceptance is so worded as to convey the idea that he is being forced to a course of action which is against his better instincts. There is no word of what came to be called the Grand Ceremony, i.e. the enthronement. That matter is carefully left in abeyance and the government departments simply told to make the necessary preparations. The attitude of Peking officialdom is well-illustrated in a circular telegram dispatched to the provinces three days later, the analysis of Japan's relationship to the Entente Powers being particularly revealing. The obsequious note which pervades this document is also particularly noticeable and shows how deeply the canker of sycophancy had now eaten in.

CODE TELEGRAM DATED DECEMBER 14, 1915, FROM THE OFFICE OF COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF OF THE LAND AND NAVAL FORCES, RESPECTING CHINA'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS FOREIGN NATIONS

To the Military and Civil Governors of the Provinces:—

(To be deciphered with the Hua Code)

On the 11th inst. the acting Legislature Council submitted a memorial to the Emperor, reporting on the number of votes cast by the people in favour of a monarchy and the letters of nomination of Yuan Shih-kai as Emperor received from all parts of the country, and begged that he would ascend the Throne at an early date. His Majesty was, however, so modest as to decline. The Council presented a second memorial couched in the most entreating terms, and received an order to the effect that all the ministries and departments were to make the necessary preparations for the enthronement. The details of this decision appeared in the Presidential Orders of the past few days, so need not be repeated now.

The people are unanimously of the opinion that in a republic the foundation of the state is very apt to be shaken and the policy of the government to be changed; and that consequently there is no possibility of enjoying everlasting peace and prosperity, nor any hope for the nation to become powerful. Now that the form of the state has been decided in favour of a monarchy and the person who is to sit on the Throne agreed upon, the country is placed on a secure basis, and the way to national prosperity and strength is thus paved.

Being the trustworthy ministers and, as it were, the hands and feet of His Majesty, we are united to him by more ties than one. On this account we should with one mind exert our utmost efforts in discharging our duty of loyalty to the country. This should be the spirit which guides us in our action at the beginning of the new dynasty. As for the enthronement, it is purely a matter of ceremony. Whether it takes place earlier or later is of no moment. Moreover His Majesty has always been modest, and does everything with circumspection. We should all appreciate his attitude.

So far as our external relations are concerned, a thorough understanding must be come to with the foreign nations, so that recognition of the new regime may not be delayed and diplomatic intercourse interrupted. Japan, has, in conjunction with the Entente Powers, tendered advice to postpone the change of the Republic into an empire. As a divergence of opinion exists between Japan and the Entente Powers, the advice is of no great effect. Besides, the Elders and the Military Party in Japan are all opposed to the action taken by their Government. Only the press in Tokio has spread all sorts of threatening rumours. This is obviously the upshot of ingenious plots on the part of irresponsible persons. If we postpone the change we shall be subject to foreign interference, and the country will consequently cease to exist as an independent state. On the other hand, if we proclaim the enthronement forthwith, we shall then be flatly rejecting the advice,—an act which, we apprehend, will not be tolerated by Japan. As a result, she will place obstacles in the way of recognition of the new order of things.

Since a monarchy has been decided to be the future form of the state, and His Majesty has consented to accept the Throne, the change may be said to be an accomplished fact. There is no question about it. All persons of whatever walk of life can henceforth continue their pursuits without anxiety. In the meantime we will proceed slowly and surely with the enthronement, as it involves many ceremonies and diplomatic etiquette. In this way both our domestic and our foreign policies will remain unchanged.

We hope you will comprehend our ideas and treat them as strictly confidential.

(Signed) Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Land and Naval Force.

After this one last step remained to be taken—it was necessary to burn all the incriminating evidence. On the 21st December, the last circular telegram in connection with this extraordinary business was dispatched from Peking, a delightful naivete being displayed regarding the possibility of certain letters and telegrams having transgressed the bounds of the law. All such delinquencies are to be mercifully wiped out by the simple and admirable method of invoking the help of the kitchen-fires. And in this appropriate way does the monster-play end.

CODE TELEGRAM DATED DECEMBER 21, 1915, FROM THE NATIONAL CONVENTION BUREAU, ORDERING THE DESTRUCTION OF DOCUMENTS CONNECTED WITH THE ELECTIONS

To the Military and Civil Governors of the Provinces, the Military Commissioners at Foochow and Kweiyang; the Military Commandants at Changteh, Kweihuating, and Kalgan; and the Commissioner of Defence at Tachienlu:—(To be deciphered with the Hua Code)

The change in the form of the state is now happily accomplished. This is due not only to the unity of the people's minds, but more especially to the skill with which, in realizing the object of saving the country, you have carried out the propaganda from the beginning, managed affairs according to the exigencies of the occasions, and adapted the law to suit the circumstances. The people have, to be sure, become tired of the Republic; yet unless you had taken the lead, they would not have dared to voice their sentiments. We all appreciate your noble efforts.

Ever since the monarchical movement was started, the people as well as the high officials in the different localities have repeatedly petitioned for the change, a fact which proves that the people's will is in favour of it. In order to enable the people to express their will through a properly constituted organ, the General Convention of the Citizens' Representatives has been created.

Since the promulgation of the Law on the Organization of the Citizens' Representatives, we, who are devoted to the welfare of the state, desire to see that the decisions of that Convention do not run counter to the wishes of the people. We are so anxious about the matter that we have striven so to apply the law to meet the circumstances as to carry out our designs. It is out of patriotic motives that we have adopted the policy of adhering to the law, whenever possible, and, at the same time, of yielding to expediency, whenever necessary. During the progress of this scheme there may have been certain letters and telegrams, both official and private, which have transgressed the bounds of the law. They will become absolutely useless after the affair is finished.' Moreover, no matter how carefully their secrets may have been guarded, still they remain as permanent records which might compromise us; and in the event of their becoming known to foreigners, we shall not escape severe criticism and bitter attacks, and, what is worse, should they be handed down as part of the national records, they will stain the opening pages of the history of the new dynasty. The Central Government, after carefully considering the matter, has concluded that it would be better to sort out and burn the documents so as to remove all unnecessary records and prevent regrettable consequences. For these reasons you are hereby requested to sift out all telegrams, letters, and dispatches concerning the change in the form of the state, whether official or private, whether received from Peking or the provinces (excepting those required by law to be filed on record), and cause the same to be burnt in your presence. As for those which have already been communicated to the local officials, you are likewise requested to order them to be returned immediately; to commit them to the flames; and to report to this Bureau for future reference the total number of documents so destroyed.

The present change in the form of the state constitutes the most glorious episode of our national history. Not only is this far superior to the succession of dynasties by right of conquest or in virtue of voluntary transfer (as in the days of Yao and Shun), but it compares favourably with all the peaceful changes that have taken place in western politics. Everything will be perfect if whatever mars it (meaning the documents) is done away with.

All of you have acquired greatness in founding the dynasty. You will doubtless concur with us, and will, we earnestly hope, lose no time in cautiously and secretly carrying out our request.

We respectfully submit this to your consideration and wait for a reply.

(Signed) NATIONAL CONVENTION BUREAU.

FOOTNOTES:

[18] A very remarkable illustration of the manner in which Yuan Shih-kai was trapped by official Japan during the monarchist movement has recently been extensively quoted in the Far Eastern press. Here is the substance of a Japanese (vernacular) newspaper account showing the uses to which Japanese politicians put the Press:

"... When that question was being hotly discussed in China Marquis Okuma, interviewed by the Press, stated that monarchy was the right form of government for China and that in case a monarchical regime was revived Yuan Shih-kai was the only suitable person to sit on the Throne. When this statement by Marquis Okuma was published in the Japanese papers, Yuan Shih-kai naturally concluded that the Japanese Government, at the head of which Marquis Okuma was, was favourably disposed towards him and the monarchical movement. It can well be imagined, therefore, how intense was his surprise when he later received a warning from the Japanese Government against the resuscitation of the monarchy in China. When this inconsistency in the Marquis's actions was called in question in the Japanese House of Representatives, the ex-Premier absolutely denied the truth of the statement attributed to him by the Japanese papers, without any show of hesitancy, and thus boldly shirked the responsibility which, in reality, lay on him...."



CHAPTER XII

"THE THIRD REVOLUTION"

THE REVOLT OF YUNNAN

In all the circumstances it was only natural that the extraordinary chapter of history we have just narrated should have marched to its appointed end in just as extraordinary a manner as it had commenced. Yuan Shih-kai, the uncrowned king, actually enjoyed in peace his empty title only for a bare fortnight, the curious air of unreality becoming more and more noticeable after the first burst of excitement occasioned by his acceptance of the Throne had subsided. Though the year 1915 ended with Peking brightly illuminated in honour of the new regime, which had adopted in conformity with Eastern precedents a new calendar under the style of Hung Hsien or "glorious Constitutionalism," that official joy was just as false as the rest had been and awakened the incredulity of the crowd.

On Christmas Day ominous rumours had spread in the diplomatic circle that dramatic developments in South China had come which not only directly challenged the patient plotting of months but made a debacle appear inevitable. Very few days afterwards it was generally known that the southernmost province of China, Yunnan—on the borders of French-Indo-China—had telegraphed the Central Government a thinly veiled ultimatum, that either the monarchy must be cancelled and the chief monarchists executed at once or the province would take such steps as were deemed advisable. The text of these telegrams which follows was published by the courageous editor of the Peking Gazette on the 31st December and electrified the capital. The reader will not fail to note how richly allegorical they are in spite of their dramatic nature:

FIRST TELEGRAM

To the Great President:

Since the question of Kuo-ti (form of State) was raised consternation has seized the public mind; and on account of the interference of various Powers the spirit of the people has been more and more aroused. They have asked the question:—"Who has invited the disaster, and brought upon us such great disgrace?" Some one must be responsible for the alien insults heaped on us.

We have learned that each day is given to rapid preparations for the Grand Ceremony; and it is now true that, internally, public opinion has been slighted, and, externally, occasions have been offered to foreigners to encroach on our rights. Our blood runs cold when we face the dangers at the door. Not once but twice hath the President taken the oath to observe and obey the Constitution and protect and maintain the Republic. The oath was sworn before Heaven and Earth; and it is on record in the hearts of millions of people and the words thereof still echo in the ears of the people of all nations. In the Classics it is said that "in dealing with the people of the country, faith is of the essence of great rule." Again it is written that "without faith a people cannot endure as a nation." How then can one rule the people when he "eats" his own words and tears his own oath? Principle has now been cast to the winds and the Kuo-ti has been changed. We know not how the country can be administered.

Since the suspension of the National Assembly and the revision of the Constitution, the powers of Government have been centred in one person, with the implied freedom to do whatever seems meet without let or hindrance. If the Government were to use this power in order to reform the administration and consolidate the foundations of the nation, there would be no fear of failure. For the whole country would submit to the measures of the Central Government. Thus there is not the least necessity to commit treason by changing the Kuo-ti.

But although the recent decision of the Citizens' Representatives in favour of a monarchy and the request of the high local officials for the President's accession to the Throne have been represented as inspired by the unanimous will of the people, it is well known that the same has been the work of ignoble men whose bribery and intimidation have been sanctioned by the authorities. Although inept efforts have been made to disguise the deceit, the same is unhidden to the eyes of the world.

Fortunately it is said that the President has from the very beginning maintained a calm attitude, speaking not his mind on the subject. It is now as easy to turn the tide as the reversing of the palm. It may be objected that if the "face" of the nation is not preserved in view of the interference of Foreign Powers, there will be great danger in future. But it must be observed that official declaration can only be made in accordance with the will of the people, the tendency of which can easily be ascertained by searching for the facts. If the will of the people that the country should be the common property of the Nation be obeyed and the idea of the President that a Dynasty is as cheap as a worn-out shoe is heeded, the latter has it in his power to loosen the string that suspends the bell just as much as the person who has hung it. If the wrong path is not forsaken, it is feared that as soon as the heart of the people is gone, the country will be broken to pieces and the dismemberment of the Nation will take place when alien pressure is applied to us. We who have hitherto received favours from the President and have received high appointments from him hereby offer our faithful advice in the spirit of men who are sailing in common in a boat that is in danger; we speak as do those who love sincerity and cherish the unbroken word. We hope that the President will, with courage, refuse to listen to the speech of evil counsellors and heed the voice of conscience and of honour. We further hope that he will renew his promise to protect the Republic; and will publicly swear that a monarchical system will never again appear.

Thus the heart of the people will be settled and the foundations of the Nation will be consolidated. Then by enlisting the services of sagacious colleagues in order to surmount the difficulties of the time and sweeping away all corruption and beginning anew with the people, it may be that the welfare and interest of the Nation will be furthered. In sending this telegram our eyes are wet with tears, knowing not what more to say. We respectfully await the order of the President with our troops under arms.

(Signed) THE GOVERNORS OF YUNNAN.

SECOND TELEGRAM

For the Perusal of the Great President:—

In our humble opinion the reason why the people—Chinese and foreign—cannot excuse the President is because the movement for the change of Kuo-ti has been inspired, and indeed actually originated in Peking, and that the ringleaders of the plot against the Min Kuo are all "bosom-men" of the President. The Chou An Hui, organized by Yang Tu and five other men, set the fire ablaze and the circular telegram sent by Chu Chi-chien and six other persons precipitated the destruction of the Republican structure. The President knew that the bad deed was being done and yet he did nothing to arrest the same or punish the evil-doers. The people therefore, are suspicious. A mandate was issued on the 24th of the 11th month of the 3rd year in which it is affirmed: "Democracy and republicanism are laid down in the Constitutional Compact; and there is also a law relating to the punishment of those who spread sedition in order to disturb the minds of the people. If any one Shall hereafter dare to advance strange doctrines and misconstrue the meaning of the Constitution, he will be punished severely in accordance with the law of sedition."

Yang Tu for having publicly organized the said Society and Chu Chi-chien for having directly plotted by telegram are the principal offenders in the present flagrant case of sedition. As their crimes are obvious and the subject of abundant proof, we hereby ask the President to carry out at once the terms of the said mandate and publicly execute Yang Tu, Sun Yu-yun, Yen Fu, Liu Shih-pei, Li Hsieh-ho, Hu Ying, Chu Chi-chien, Tuan Chih-kuei, Chow Tzu-chi, Liang Shih-yi, Chang Cheng-fang and Yuan Nai-kuan to the end that the whole nation may be pacified. Then, and not till then, will the world believe in the sincerity of the President, in his love for the country and his intention to abide by the law. All the troops and people here are in anger; and unless a substantial proof from the Central Authorities is forthcoming, guaranteeing the maintenance of the Republic, it will be impossible to suppress or pacify them. We await a reply within twenty-four hours.

(Signed) THE GOVERNORS OF YUNNAN PROVINCE.



It was evident from the beginning that pride prevented Yuan Shih-kai from retreating from the false position he had taken up. Under his instructions the State Department sent a stream of powerful telegraphic messages to Yunnan attempting to dissuade the Republican leaders from revolt. But the die had been cast and very gravely the standard of rebellion was raised in the capital city of Yunnan and the people exhorted to shed their blood. Everything pointed to the fact that this rising was to be very different from the abortive July outbreak of 1913. There was a soberness and a deliberation about it all which impressed close observers with a sense of the ominous end which was now in sight.

Still Peking remained purblind. During the month of January the splendour of the dream empire, which was already dissolving into thin air, filled the newspapers. It was reported that an Imperial Edict printed on Yellow Paper announcing the enthronement was ready for universal distribution: that twelve new Imperial Seals in jade or gold were being manufactured: that a golden chair and a magnificent State Coach in the style of Louis XV were almost ready. Homage to the portrait of Yuan Shih-kai by all officials throughout the country was soon to be ordered; sycophantic scholars were busily preparing a volume poetically entitled "The Golden Mirror of the Empire," in which the virtues of the new sovereign were extolled in high-sounding language. A recondite significance, it was said, was to be given to the old ceremonial dress, which was to be revived, from the fact that every official would carry a Hu or Ivory Tablet to be held against the breast. The very mention of this was sufficient to make the local price of ivory leap skywards! In the privacy of drawing-rooms the story went the rounds that Yuan Shih-kai, now completely deluded into believing in the success of his great scheme, had held a full dress rehearsal of a ceremony which would be the first one at his new Court when he would invest the numerous ladies of his establishment with royal rank. Seated on his Throne he had been engaged in instructing these interested females, already robed in magnificent costumes, in the parts they were to play, when he had noticed the absence of the Korean Lady—a consort he had won, it is said, in his Seoul days in competition against the Japanese Envoy accredited to Korea, thereby precipitating the war of 1894-95.[19] The Korean Lady had refused to enter the Throne-room, he was told, because she was dissatisfied with the rank he proposed to confer on her. Sternly he sent for her and told her to take her place in the circle. But no sooner had she arrived than hysterically she screamed, "You told me when you wedded me that no wife would be my superior: now I am counted only a secondary consort." With that she hurled herself at the eldest wife who was occupying the post of honour and assailed her bitterly. Amidst the general confusion the would-be-Emperor hastily descended from his Throne and vainly intervened, but the women were not to be parted until their robes were in tatters.

In such childishnesses did Peking indulge when a great disaster was preparing. To explain what had occurred in Yunnan it is necessary to go back and tell the story of a remarkable young Chinese—General Tsao-ao, the soul of the new revolt.

In the revolution of 1911 each province had acted on the assumption that it possessed inherent autonomous rights and could assume sovereignty as soon as local arrangements had allowed the organization of a complete provisional government. Yunnan had been one of the earliest provinces to follow the lead of the Wuchang rebels and had virtually erected itself into a separate republic, which attracted much attention because of the iron discipline which was preserved. Possessing a fairly well-organized military system, largely owing to the proximity of the French frontier and the efforts which a succession of Viceroys had made to provide adequate frontier defence, it was amply able to guarantee its newly won autonomy. General Tsao-ao, then in command of a division of troops had been elected Generalissimo of the province; and bending himself to his task in very few weeks he had driven into exile all officials who adhered to the Imperialist cause and made all local institutions completely self-supporting. Even in 1911 it had been reported that this young man dreamed of founding a dynasty for himself in the mountains of South China—an ambition by no means impossible of realization since he had received a first-class military education in the Tokio Military Schools and was thoroughly up-to-date and conversant with modern theories of government.

These reports had at the time greatly concerned Yuan Shih-kai who heard it stated by all who knew him that the Yunnan leader was a genius in his own way. In conformity with his policy of bringing to Peking all who might challenge his authority, he had induced General Tsao-ao, since the latter had played no part in the rebellion of 1913, to lay down his office of Yunnan Governor-General and join him in the capital at the beginning of 1914—another high provincial appointment being held out to him as a bait.

Once in Peking, however, General Tsao-ao had been merely placed in charge of an office concerned with the reorganization of the land-tax, nominally a very important piece of work long advocated by foreign critics. But as there were no funds available, and as the purpose was plainly merely to keep him under observation, he fretted at the restraint, and became engaged in secret political correspondence with men who had been exiled abroad. As he was soon an open suspect, in order to avoid arrest he had taken the bold step at the very inception of the monarchy movement of heading the list of Generals in residence in Peking who petitioned the Senate to institute a Monarchy, this act securing him against summary treatment. But owing to his secret connection with the scholar Liang Chi-chao, who had thrown up his post of Minister of Justice and left the capital in order to oppose the new movement, he was watched more and more carefully—his death being even hinted at.

He was clever enough to meet this ugly development with a masterly piece of trickery conceived in the Eastern vein. One day a carefully arranged dispute took place between him and his wife, and the police were angrily called in to see that his family and all their belongings were taken away to Tientsin as he refused any longer to share the same roof with them. Being now alone in the capital, he apparently abandoned himself to a life of shameless debauch, going nightly to the haunts of pleasure and becoming a notorious figure in the great district in the Outer City of Peking which is filled with adventure and adventuresses and which is the locality from which Haroun al-Raschid obtained through the medium of Arab travellers his great story of "Aladdin and the Wonderful Lamp." When governmental suspicions were thoroughly lulled, he arranged with a singing-girl to let him out by the backdoor of her house at dawn from whence he escaped to the railway-station, rapidly reaching Tientsin entirely unobserved.

The morning was well-advanced before the detectives who nightly watched his movements became suspicious. Then finding that his whereabouts were unknown to the coachman dozing on the box of his carriage, they roughly entered the house where he had passed the night only to find that the bird had flown. Hasty telegrams were dispatched in every direction, particularly to Tientsin—the great centre for political refugees—and his summary arrest ordered. But fortune favoured him. A bare quarter-of-an-hour before the police began their search he had embarked with his family on a Japanese steamer lying in the Tientsin river and could snap his fingers at Yuan Shih-kai.

Once in Japan he lost no time in assembling his revolutionary friends and in a body they embarked for South China. As rapidly as possible he reached Yunnan province from Hongkong, travelling by way of the French Tonkin railway. Entering the province early in December he found everything fairly ready for revolt, though there was a deficiency in arms and munitions which had to be made good. Yuan Shih-kai, furious at this evasion, had telegraphed to confidential agents in Yunnan to kill him at sight, but fortunately he was warned and spared to perform his important work. Had a fortnight of grace been vouchsafed him, he would have probably made the most brilliant modern campaign that has been witnessed in China, for he was an excellent soldier. Acting from the natural fortress of Yunnan it was his plan to descend suddenly on the Yangtsze Valley by way of Chungking and to capture the upper river in one victorious march thus closing the vast province of Szechuan to the Northern troops. But circumstances had made it imperative for him and his friends to telegraph the Yunnan ultimatum a fortnight sooner than it should have been dispatched, and the warning thus conveyed to the Central Government largely crippled the Yunnan offensive.

The circumstances which had made instant action necessary were as follows. As we have seen from the record of the previous risings, the region of the Yangtsze river has superlative value in Chinese politics. Offering as it does an easy road into the heart of the country and touching more than half the Provinces, it is indeed a priceless means of communication, and for this reason Yuan Shih-kai had been careful after the crushing of the rebellion of 1913 to load the river-towns with his troops under the command of Generals he believed incorruptible. Chief of these was General Feng Kuo-chang at Nanking who held the balance of power on the great river, and whose politics, though not entirely above suspicion, had been proof against all the tempting offers South China made to him until the ill-fated monarchy movement had commenced. But during this movement General Feng Kuo-chang had expressed himself in such contemptuous terms of the would-be Emperor that orders had been given to another high official—Admiral Tseng, Garrison Commissioner at Shanghai—to have him assassinated. Instead of obeying his instructions, Admiral Tseng had conveyed a warning to his proposed victim, the consequence being that the unfortunate admiral was himself brutally murdered on the streets of Shanghai by revolver-shots for betraying the confidence of his master. After this denouement it was not very strange that General Feng Kuo-chang should have intimated to the Republican Party that as soon as they entered the Yangtsze Valley he would throw in his lot with them together with all his troops. Of this Yuan Shih-kai became aware through his extraordinary system of intelligence; and following his usual practice he had ordered General Feng Kuo-chang to Peking as Chief of the General Staff—an appointment which would place him under direct surveillance. First on one excuse, then on another, General Feng Kuo-chang had managed to delay his departure from day to day without actually coming under the grave charge of refusing to obey orders. But finally the position was such that he telegraphed to General Tsao-ao that unless the Yunnan arrangements were hastened he would have to leave Nanking—and abandon this important centre to one of Yuan Shih-kai's own henchmen—which meant the end of all hopes of the Yangtsze Valley rising en masse.