Sec. 2. Functions of banks. Almost every bank performs various functions useful to its customers, but some of which are not essentially bound up with banking, and may be performed by institutions that are not truly banks. Among these are:

(a) Maintaining a safe deposit vault, where space may be rented by an individual to keep his valuable papers, jewels, etc. The customer does not usually deliver to the bank possession of the valuables, but himself retains the key to the box which the bank has no right to open. In larger cities this work is often done by separate institutions.

(b) Acting as money-changer to buy and sell moneys of different nations. This function is of less importance in America than elsewhere because of the great size of our country and of the small portion of our boundaries touching those of other nations using different monetary units. Moreover, the function is in large part performed for Americans by ticket agencies at the ports of embarkation and by the steamship companies en route.

(c) Selling bonds and other investments to customers. In smaller communities the customers of a bank turn to it as the best source of information for safe investments of personal or trust funds. This opens to it a new possibility of service. Large investments, however, are usually made through the agency of more specialized investment brokers.

(d) Acting as trustee and business manager for passive investors, and especially as executor and administrator of estates or as guardian of a minor heir. This function has been taken up rapidly since about 1890 by the trust company[3] organized under state laws.

Sec. 3. The essential banking function. The one essential function of a bank, however, is selling (lending) its credit to its customers in some form which will conveniently serve the same function as money. A bank is sometimes defined as a business whose income is derived from lending its promises. The bank's credit is sold in the form of its promises, the evidences of which are its receipts, depositors' account books, drafts and checks on other banks, and bank notes. The indispensable condition to the exercise of this function by a bank is public confidence in its ability to fulfil its promise to pay whenever it is due. This confidence is built upon the bank's paid-up capital; its surplus and undivided profits: the further liability of the stockholders to make good any losses up to an amount equal to the capital stock each holds ("stockholder's double liability"); the financial prestige of the bank's officers, directors, and stockholders; the bank's established reputation and "good will" in the community after a period of successful operation; the character of its loans and of the securities which it owns; and, finally, by the reliance placed in the control and inspection by official examiners. The bank may then sell its credit in any one or in all of the following five ways: (1) by receiving time deposits; (2) by receiving demand deposits; (3) by the method of discount and deposit; (4) by selling exchange of funds to distant points; (5) by issuing bank notes.

Sec. 4. Time deposits. Time deposits are funds to the credit of customers which, by agreement, are to be left for some specified minimum time or on condition that the bank may require notice in advance of the depositor's intention to withdraw them. The notice that may be required is usually thirty to ninety days; but only in times of general financial crises or of runs on particular banks is this requirement enforced. A sufficient deterrent to irregular withdrawal of funds is usually found in the loss of interest if deposits are withdrawn at other than stated times. The bank's right to require notice makes prudent the investment of a much larger proportion of its deposits and for a longer time; it reduces the proportion of deposits needed for reserves, and yet reduces the danger of a "run" upon the bank in time of financial distress. These are reasons why banks can and usually do pay interest on time deposits (at from 2 to 4 per cent), as until more recently they rarely did on demand deposits[4]. From the standpoint of the depositor a time deposit is, by its very nature, an investment and not a demand credit available for current monetary uses. Only that portion of a person's capital that for some more or less considerable period is not likely to be needed for other purposes ought to be put into time deposits. A bank, however, is generally a much safer place in which to keep a fund of purchasing power for the future than is the strongest private treasure box. Receiving time deposits is the one essential function of savings banks, but this function is increasingly performed by other banks[5]. Sometimes time deposits are cared for by a separate department and kept separate from the general business of a commercial bank.

Sec. 5. Demand deposits. Demand deposits are those payable on demand, the demand in practice being by means of personal checks requesting the bank to pay to (or on the order of) a specified person, or to pay to bearer. A customer's bank account consisting of demand deposits is called a checking account. Since the turn of the century it has become increasingly the practice to pay a low rate of interest (about 2 per cent) on current balances, oftener to large depositors. Banks attract demand deposits mainly by the convenience and economy which they offer to their customers in the guarding of funds from theft and fire and in saving the time, trouble, and expense of carrying money for making payments. A deposit in a bank is to the depositor for most purposes "just as good" as money in the pocket and for many purposes is even better. Thus the banks have become the custodians of a large proportion of the money (or funds) needed for current use by individuals and business corporations.

Sec. 6. Discount and deposit. The process of discount and deposit is the purchase of the promissory note of a customer,[6] the price being a credit in the form of a demand deposit on the books of the bank. This—the central and most characteristic banking operation—has something of mystery in it at first view. The simplest idea of making a deposit is that of bringing to a bank window bags and rolls of money or other funds (credit papers such as checks and drafts, calling for the payment of money). The bank in that case becomes the debtor and the depositor becomes the creditor of the bank. But in discount and deposit the depositor brings no money, and the credit paper that he gives is his own promise to pay whereby he becomes the bank's debtor. For example, when a bank discounts a thousand dollar note for three months and credits its customer with the proceeds, its deposits are at that moment increased (let us say) $985. Notice that hereby the bank does not add a cent to the cash in its vaults while it has added to its liabilities payable on demand. As an off-setting asset it holds the note of its customer receivable at some future time.

Sec.7. Nature of banking reserves. Banks would have nothing to gain by receiving deposits or by issuing notes if they were obliged to keep in the vaults actual money to the amount of their deposits and outstanding notes (unless they were paid by depositors for taking care of deposits). Banks have found it necessary in practice to keep on hand money amounting to only a fraction of all their outstanding obligations in order to be able to pay promptly all due demands, excepting in periods of general financial distress. The sum thus kept on hand is called the reserve or the reserves of the bank, and this is frequently expressed as a percentage of reserves against deposits or against note issues, respectively. Frequently, as in the United States, a minimum percentage of reserves is fixed by law.[7]

A bank's reserves consist, first, of the lawful money which it actually holds in its vaults at any moment and secondly, of certain other credit items in other banks or with the government, of such a nature that a bank is permitted to count them as tho immediately available.

The explanation of the adequacy of a mere fractional reserve is found in the nature of the individual monetary demand[8] and in the effective way in which a checking account serves as a substitute for actual money.[9] Every customer, if he would avoid overdrawing his account, must at most times keep a goodly balance to his credit that he does not immediately need. Many individuals and corporations must at times keep very large balances. The times of maximum monetary need of the customers of a bank never exactly coincide and many payments are made among the customers of a single bank, requiring only bookkeeping transfers. A fractional reserve is therefore ordinarily fully adequate, altho with any less than a 100 per cent reserve any bank would be insolvent if all of its demand obligations were presented at the same instant. Such a contingency is made impossible by business custom and public opinion especially among the larger customers of banks, but the panic of small depositors often brings about dangerous conditions.

Sec. 8. Bills of exchange, domestic. Foreign and domestic exchange is the sale of orders for the payment of specified sums of money at distant points. But for this, payments at distant points would ordinarily have to be made by sending the money in some way. It must often occur, for example, that hundreds of payments, aggregating millions of dollars, must be made by persons in and near Chicago to those in and near New York, while, at the same time, equally large sums are due from New York to Chicago. The wasteful process of shipping these sums back and forth is avoided by the cancellation of indebtedness between the two localities. It has been the practice for each small bank to keep a part of its legal reserves in correspondent banks in one or more of the larger cities on which it draws bills of exchange for its customers and to which in turn it remits for collection drafts and checks which it has received. From time to time, as balances of accounts increase on the one side or the other, shipments of actual money become necessary, but these are only a small fraction of the total amount of the bills of exchange. Similarly, the settlement of accounts between any two localities can be made by the shipment of comparatively small sums of money. Under the Federal Reserve Act the reserve banks are in various ways assuming the functions of the correspondent banks.

The wider use and acceptance of individual checks at long distances from the banks upon which they are drawn limit by so much the proportion of special bills of exchange drawn by the banks themselves. Domestic exchange involves just the same principles as foreign exchange of funds, except that in the latter, usually, two different units of standard money are used. In connection with the discussion of foreign trade below, foreign exchanges will be explained and further light will be thrown upon the adjustment of the money supplies and levels of prices of the various sections of a single country as well as between different countries.

Sec. 9. Issue of notes. The issue of bank notes as a mode of lending a bank's credit calls for consideration here. Yet it must be observed at once that comparatively few banks in the world have now the legal right to issue their own notes. In some cases the right has been granted as a monopoly to certain banks in return for specified payments and services. But in general the function of bank note issue has come to be treated as so closely connected with that of the coinage and regulation of the standard money that it has been increasingly limited in each country to a central national bank, or group of banks, which is in many respects practically if not technically an organ of the government. This public nature of bank note issues has been strikingly evident in Russia, England, France, Germany, and other countries since the outbreak of the war in 1914.

No two countries have quite the same system and kind of bank notes. It is well to consider first, therefore, the qualities of typical bank money. This consists of notes issued by banks on the credit of their general assets, without special regulation by law. With such a form of note we have had until 1914 no experience in the United States since 1866, at which time a federal tax of 10 per cent on state bank notes made their issue unprofitable. Since the passage of the Federal Reserve Act we have temporarily two kinds of national-bank notes, the old bond-secured notes, in use since 1863 (very different from the typical form),[10] and the new kind of Federal reserve notes very nearly typical in character but issued only by the Federal reserve banks, not by individual banks.

A bank, by the issue of notes, puts into circulation as money its own promises to pay. The customer, in borrowing money or in withdrawing deposits or cashing checks and drafts from other banks, is paid with the bank's notes instead of with standard money. These notes may be returned to the issuing bank either to be redeemed in specie or to be paid in some other form of credit, such as deposits or exchange. The limit of the issue of such notes is the need of the community for that form of money, and if they are promptly redeemed in standard money on demand, they never can exceed that amount. A holder of a note (in the absence of special regulations) has the same claim on the bank that a depositor has. As it is to the interest of the bank to keep in circulation as many notes as possible, there is a temptation to abuse the power of note issue, to which many banks in America yielded in the period of so-called "wild-cat" banking before the Civil War.

Sec. 10. Divergent views of typical bank notes. Some persons seeing in bank notes but a form of ordinary commercial credit (like a promissory note or an individual's check) have contended that their issue should be entirely unlimited and unregulated except by the ordinary law of contract which makes the bank liable to redeem the notes on demand. Such bank notes would not be legal tender, and every one would be free to take or refuse them as he pleased. Each bank would thus put into circulation as many notes as it could, and as they would constantly be returned for redemption when not needed as money their volume would expand and contract with the needs of business.

It may be conceded that there is much truth in this view, but not the whole truth. For, in reality, when bank notes are in common use, every one is compelled to take the money that is current. This offers a constant temptation to the reckless and unscrupulous promotion of banking enterprises, as has been repeatedly shown (notably in America in the days of "wild-cat" banking before 1860). The average citizen cannot know the credit of distant banks, and thus has not the same power of judging wisely in taking bank notes that he has even in making deposits in the bank of his own neighborhood. Between bank notes and ordinary promissory notes there are other differences. Bank notes pass without endorsement and thus depend on the credit of the bank alone, not, like checks, on the credit of the person, from whom received. Unlike ordinary promissory notes, they yield no interest to the holder. They go into circulation and remain in circulation for considerable time by virtue of their monetary character in the hands of the holders. Thus they approach political money in their nature, and the banks are near to exercising the sovereign right of the issue of money.

At the other extreme of view have been those who consider bank notes to be essentially of the nature of political money. If they are so, it is argued, the power of issue should not be exercised by any but the sovereign state. In this view it is overlooked that bank notes, unlike inconvertible paper money, depend for their value on the credit of the bank, not on their legal-tender quality and on political power.[11] They must be redeemed on penalty of insolvency; government notes need not be, and yet will circulate at par if properly limited. Adequate provision for the prompt return and redemption of bank notes makes them "elastic" in their adaptation to monetary needs, which fluctuate with changes in commerce and industry from season to season and even from day to day.

The predominant opinion to-day is that in their economic nature bank notes share to some extent the character both of private promissory notes and of political paper money. They stand midway between the two. Everywhere it has come to be held that the issue of paper money of any kind is in its nature a public monopoly, and yet everywhere the bank note policy has come to be that of permitting the issue only to certain institutions, under strict public legislation and regulation, and of requiring in return for this privilege some substantial services or payments to the government.

Sec. 11. Banking credit as a medium of trade. The credit which, in five ways, banks sell (see above, section 3) serves, in most cases, the purposes of money to their customers. This is least true of time deposits, for the motive of the depositor in such cases is usually to invest his funds for a time rather than to keep them available as money. However, there are many cases in which persons save for some moderately distant use—such as the purchase of furniture, of a piano, of a house. The safety and convenience of time deposits, combined with the reward of a small rate of interest, cause great sums, in the aggregate, to be deposited as temporary savings, which otherwise would be hoarded in the form of money and thus withdrawn from circulation. In all such cases the time deposit is serving both as an investment and as a monetary fund for future use. This is a great economy in the use of money, for experience shows that in the savings banks of America the average reserves of actual money kept against deposits are only about 1-1/2 per cent. In countries where banks are little known, the amount of actual money hoarded is therefore vastly greater than it is in the United States where there are $5,000,000,000 of individual deposits in regular savings banks, besides large sums in time deposits in commercial banks.

Demand deposits, while not money, clearly perform the function of a reserve of purchasing power for depositors and reduce by so much the amount of money each must keep at hand to meet his current needs of purchasing power. If the depositor's credit balance bears no interest, he has no motive to keep a balance greater than he would require of actual money, and he has the motive to spend it or invest it in income-bearing capital whenever his balance (plus his cash in hand) exceeds his monetary needs.[12] Thus demand deposits are often spoken of (somewhat inaccurately) as "deposit currency," being funds at the command of depositors which are as disposable and as active and current for the monetary function as so much actual money would be. It is estimated that the rate of turnover of deposits in the United States is about 50 times a year. We may view the demand deposits subject to check as either a substitute for money or as a means by which the rapidity of circulation and the monetary efficiency of actual money held in bank reserves is multiplied many fold.[13]

The method of payment by bank drafts in domestic exchange reduces the need for, or increases the efficiency of, money in just the same way as does the use of checks. By the mutual credit of banks in different parts of the country, very large payments may be made in both directions with the movement of only the comparatively small amount of physical money needed to pay the balance after the cancellation of drafts, bills of exchange, and checks.

The use of bank notes reduces the amount needed of other kinds of money more directly, tho not more effectively, than do deposit accounts. Bank notes are money, and so long as their amount is limited by prompt redemption they circulate instead of so much of other kinds of money. Redemption is possible by the use of a reserve of standard (or of legal tender) money very much smaller than the amount of notes outstanding.

Sec. 12. Productive services of banks. There have always been some erroneous ideas regarding the magic power of banks to multiply the power of money. But there should be no more of mystery about banking credit than about the nature of money itself. Banks are the labor-saving machinery of finance. They gather loanable funds, reduce hoarding, make money move more rapidly, and create a central market between borrowers and lenders for the sale of credit. While not creating more physical wealth directly, they add to the efficiency of wealth; they simplify and quicken the movement of nearly all commercial transactions. Banks perform incidentally a further service in developing better business methods in the community. They enforce promptness and exactitude in business dealings. In supplying credit to enterprises, banks are constantly passing judgment on the collateral security presented to them and on the soundness of the enterprises that are seeking support. This gives to bankers great economic power, capable at times of misuse in political and social affairs, especially where a group of selfish men come to exercise a practical monopoly of business credit in any community.

Sec. 13. Income of banks. The income of banks is drawn from different sources, according to the size of the community and the nature of the banks. While in the villages and smaller cities the commercial banks perform a number of functions, in the larger cities they usually specialize in a far greater degree. The trust companies, however, with their greater versatility, are increasing in number. The income of banks is derived from discounts, interest on their own capital, charges for exchange and collection, dividends, interest and rents on investments, and profit from their bank notes. The capital with which a bank starts in business[14] could be loaned with less trouble and more cheaply without starting a bank, but used as a banking capital it can be loaned in part while still serving to attract deposits, which are the main source of the income of banks to-day. Charging smaller customers for exchange is a source of income to some banks, but in many cases this service is freely performed for regular customers and becomes a considerable expense. Banks make few investments in real estate or other physical property; it is, in fact, their duty to keep out of ordinary enterprises, but they are forced sometimes to take for unpaid debts things that have been held as security. Profits on bank notes have at times been the main, almost the sole, motive for starting banks; but that is not the case to-day when the right of issue is so strictly limited.

[Footnote 1: These are classified as follows:

Number —Per Cent— National charter: 28.56 National banks 7,404 28.56 State charter: 67.52 State banks 14,011 54.05 Loan and trust companies 1,515 5.84 Savings banks 1,978 7.63 Private: 3.92 Private banks 1,016 3.92 ——— ——— ——— 25,924 100.00 100.00 ]

[Footnote 2: Opinion favors prohibiting the use of the word bank to any except regularly incorporated organizations, or at least subjecting private banks to the same supervision as the chartered banks.]

[Footnote 3: Not to be confused with a trust in the sense of a monopolistic enterprise, with which it has no connection except by mere verbal accident, through the word trust.]

[Footnote 4: See next sec.]

[Footnote 5: The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 has given encouragement to this practice by reducing to 5 per cent the reserve required to be kept against time deposits. See ch. 9, sec. 7.]

[Footnote 6: Usually with deduction of interest in advance; a process called discount. See Vol. 1, pp. 275, 302.]

[Footnote 7: The legal requirements as to minimum reserves vary greatly from no specific per cent to 40 or more in different countries, for different classes of banks, and for different purposes. Some examples of legal reserve requirements in the United States occur in the two following chapters.]

[Footnote 8: See above, ch. 4, sec. 5.]

[Footnote 9: See below, sec. 10.]

[Footnote 10: Including, now, some Federal Reserve bank notes secured by United States bonds.]

[Footnote 11: In some cases, as during the bank restriction in England, 1797-1821, bank notes become inconvertible—practically political money.]

[Footnote 12: Payment of interest on credit balances reduces the motive to withdraw for investment elsewhere any such excess, and mingles in the depositor's thought monetary and investment motives.]

[Footnote 13: In the United States in 1914 there were individual deposits reported in banks other than savings banks to the amount of about $13,400,000,000

In national banks .................................. $6,000,000,000

In state banks ..................................... 3,250,000,000

In loan and trust companies .......................... 4,000,000,000

In private banks ..................................... 150,000,000

Nearly all these were doubtless demand deposits (what proportion were time deposits we have no data for determining), and were available as immediate purchasing power for the depositors. The total money (other than bank notes) in the commercial banks of the country was hardly 11 per cent of this amount. In that year the total amount of money of all kinds in circulation (and in banks) in the United States (outside the Treasury), including gold and silver and certificates represented by bullion in the treasury, United States notes of all kinds, and national bank notes, was about one fourth of the amount of these individual deposits in commercial banks. This may suggest the enormous influence that banking has in determining the average efficiency of the circulating medium of the country.]

[Footnote 14: See above, sec. 3.]



CHAPTER 8

BANKING IN THE UNITED STATES BEFORE 1914

Sec. 1. The First and Second Banks of the United States. Sec. 2. Banking from 1836 to 1863. Sec. 3. National Banking Associations, 1863-1913. Sec. 4. Defects of our banking organization before 1913. Sec. 5. Lack of system. Sec. 6. Inelasticity of credit. Sec. 7. Periodical local congestion of funds. Sec. 8. Unequal territorial distribution of banking facilities. Sec. 9. Lack of provision for foreign financial operations. Sec. 10. The "Aldrich plan."

Sec. 1. The First and Second banks of the United States.

A knowledge of the history of banking is helpful to an understanding of the present banking system in our country. The form of our present banking system has been affected by various economic and political events which will be sketched here in broad outline to give a background for our present study.

Alexander Hamilton, the great first Secretary of the Treasury in Washington's cabinet, advocated the charter of a central national bank as one portion of his larger plan of national financiering. His purpose was realized in the chartering, in 1791, of the First Bank of the United States, for a period of twenty years. The capital for this institution was in small part subscribed by the government, but mostly by private capitalists. The management of the bank was left almost entirely in private hands. The central bank established branches in many parts of the country, issued bank notes which circulated everywhere without depreciation, acted as the governmental depository of funds and as governmental agency in various ways. It seems to have been successful and useful as a banking institution until the expiration of its charter in 1811, but it was touched by the contemporary controversies over state rights and was from the first opposed by those who feared the growth of a strong central government. This opposition prevented the extension of its charter.

In 1816, however, after only a moderate discussion, the Second Bank of the United States was chartered for a period of twenty years. This also, in its purely banking aspects, seems to have been distinctly successful, conducting numerous branches in various parts of the country, maintaining at all times the parity of its notes, facilitating domestic exchange throughout the country, and enjoying unquestioned credit and solvency. However, this bank became, even in a greater degree than did the First Bank, the creature of political rivalries. In the period of rising democratic sentiment typified and led by Andrew Jackson, the bank came to be looked upon as the embodiment, or the stronghold, of plutocratic interests, and Congress permitted its charter to expire by limitation in 1836, near the close of Jackson's administration.

Sec. 2. Banking from 1836 to 1863. The Federal Government, which up to that time had deposited its funds in the central bank and its branches and in local state banks, established the "independent treasury," in 1840 (abolished in 1841 and re-established in 1846). By this plan the government kept its money of all kinds in various depositories (or sub-treasuries) in charge of public officials. While from 1792 to 1836 almost continuously a central banking system was in operation, other banks, organized under state charters, were steadily increasing in number. They received deposits, issued bank notes under state laws, and cared for local commercial needs. The abolition of the central national bank in 1836 left to the various state banks for twenty seven years all the banking functions of the country. The banks of some states (notably those of New England and New York), under careful regulation and held to strict standards by public sentiment, for the most part maintained a high credit; but many banks, under lax laws and regulations, were guilty of great abuses of credit and of downright dishonest practices. The evils were more especially evident in connection with excessive issues of bank notes.

Sec. 3. National Banking Associations, 1863-1913. The next step in federal legislation was taken in 1863 in the midst of the Civil War by chartering local "national banking associations." The purpose was in part to provide banks under national charters for banking purposes (both of deposit and of issue), and in part it was to make a wider market for United States bonds at a time when government credit was at low ebb. The plan adopted followed the experience of New York state (1829 on) with a system of bond-secured bank notes. Congress provided that every bank taking out a national charter must purchase bonds of the United States and deposit them with the treasurer of the United States, in return for which it would receive bank notes to the amount of 90 per cent of the denomination or of the market value of the bonds.[1] Bank notes issued on this plan, being secured by the bonds, rest ultimately on the credit of the government, not on the credit of the bank. They are not promptly sent back for redemption to the banks issuing them, as should be done if they were typical bank notes. They may circulate thousands of miles away from the bank that issued them, and for years after the bank has gone out of business. They are not an "elastic currency," increasing or diminishing with the needs of business. The changes in their amount depend upon the chance of the banks to make more or less in this way than by any other use of their capital, and this in turn depends largely on the price of bonds and on the rate of interest they bear. From 1864 to 1870, fortunes were made from this source, but thereafter banks could make little more from note issues than they could by investing the same amount in other ways. Many banks for a long period did not avail themselves in the least of their privilege of issue. The notes were subject to a tax.[2]

A national bank (as the law now stands) may be organized, with $25,000 capital in towns not exceeding three thousand population, with $50,000 in towns not exceeding six thousand, with $100,000 in cities not exceeding fifty thousand, and with $200,000 in large cities. Three cities, New York, Chicago, and St. Louis, have long been designated as central reserve cities, and some 47 other cities as reserve cities, in which the reserves of banks were required to bear a considerably larger proportion to their deposits than in other cities.[3] Other banks might count as part of their legal reserves their deposits in reserve city banks, up to a certain proportion. The national banks in the larger cities thus became the great capital reservoirs of cash for the whole country.

National banks have been subject to stricter inspection than have been the banks in most of the states, a fact which has strengthened public confidence in their stability. Except in this and the other respects above mentioned, a national charter offered few, if any, attractions to small banks, a majority of which have found it more advantageous to operate under state charters because of less stringent regulations as to amount of capital, reserves, and supervision.

Sec. 4. Defects of our banking organization before 1913. Taken altogether, the banks in the United States since 1868 have represented great banking power and very efficient service for the community in times of normal business. But in several respects it long ago became evident that our banks were operating less satisfactorily than those of several other countries. American banking organization had failed to keep pace with the increasing magnitude and difficulty of its task. Especially at the recurring periods of financial stress, such as occurred in 1893, 1903, and 1907, our banking machinery showed itself to be wofully unequal to the strain put upon it. Financial panics were more acute here than in any other land, and the evil clearly was traceable in large part to defects in the banking situation. In academic teaching and in public conferences of bankers, business men, publicists, and students, the subject was continually discussed after 1890. At length Congress in 1908 created a "National Monetary Commission" to inquire into and report what changes were necessary and desirable in the monetary system of the United States or in the laws relative to banking and currency. After the most extended inquiry and discussion that the subject had ever received, the commission submitted its report in January, 1912. The defects to be remedied, as enumerated in the report,[4] may be reduced to the following five headings: (a) Lack of system, (b) Inelasticity of credit, (c) Periodic local congestion of funds. (d) Unequal territorial distribution of banking facilities. (e) Lack of provision for foreign banking.

Sec. 5. Lack of system. Only in a loose sense could the banks of the United States be said (before 1914) to constitute a system at all. Both national and state laws dealt with individual banks only. It was not legal for a bank to establish branches in another city as is done in most countries. The several national banks in one city were legally quite separate. It was only by voluntary agreement that in some of the larger cities they came together into clearing-house associations. They made possible some measure of cooeperation which, small as it was, proved at times of stress to be of much service within a limited sphere for the local communities. But even with the aid of these organizations the banks were unable in times of emergency to avoid the suspension of cash payments.

There was no provision whatever for the concentration of bank revenues so that each bank would be supported by the strength of the other banks, if a movement began to withdraw deposits in unusual amounts. Each bank then was compelled for self-protection to call for any sums it had deposited with other banks,[5] and to keep for its own use all the reserves it might have in excess of its own immediate needs. This threw a great strain upon the banks in the reserve cities, which in normal times had become the depositories of a good part of the reserves of the banks in other places. Thus developed a spirit of panic, like the fright of theater-goers crowding toward the door at the cry of fire.

The maintenance of the government's independent treasury contributed to the difficulties by causing the irregular withdrawal of money from circulation and thus depleting bank reserves in periods of excessive government revenues and by returning these funds into circulation only in periods of deficient revenues. Efforts to modify this system by a partial distribution of the public moneys among national banks had resulted, it was charged, in discrimination and favoritism in the treatment of different banks and of different sections of the country.

Sec. 6. Inelasticity of credit. Our banks, considered both separately and collectively, were unable to increase their loaning powers quickly and easily to respond to business needs. The need of greater elasticity of credit was felt in the more or less regular seasonal variations within the year, and in the more irregular variations in cycles of years from periods of prosperity to those of panic and depression in business. The inelasticity was necessitated by illogical federal and state laws restricting absolutely the further extension of credit when the reserves fell below the percentage of deposits (15 or 25 per cent) fixed by law. Reserves thus could not legally be used to meet demands for cash payments at the very time when most needed. This feature has been likened to the rule of the liveryman who always refused to allow the last horse to leave his stable so that he would never be without a horse when a customer called for one. The refusal of credit by the banks at such times when they still had large amounts of cash in their vaults increased the need and eagerness of the public to draw from the bank all the cash they could, and often precipitated the insolvency of the banks. Clearly some means were needed to enable the loaning power of the individual banks to be increased at such times, so that no customer with good commercial paper need fear to be refused a loan, even tho the rate of interest might have to be somewhat higher for a few days or weeks than the normal rate.

Our bond-secured bank notes lacked almost entirely the quality of elasticity needed to meet these changing business needs.[6] Their value being dependent primarily upon the amount and price of United States bonds, they might be most numerous just when least needed as a part of our circulating medium.

Sec. 7. Periodical local congestion of funds. In times of general confidence each bank finds it profitable, and is tempted, to extend its credit to the extreme limit permitted by the law governing the proportion of reserves to deposits. Of the 15 per cent reserves required in most banks, three-fifths (9 per cent) might be kept in banks in reserve cities, and of the 25 per cent in reserve city banks, 12-1/2 per cent might be kept in central reserve cities, where it counted as part of the depositing banks' legal reserves, was a fund upon which domestic exchanges could be drawn, and usually earned a small rate of interest (usually 2 per cent). Very large reserves were kept in New York city where they could be loaned "on call," and the largest use for call loans was in stock-exchange speculation. Thus every period of prosperity encouraged an unhealthy distribution of reserves, gave an unhealthy stimulus to rising prices, and "promoted dangerous speculation."

Sec. 8. Unequal territorial distribution of banking facilities. Another aspect of this concentration of surplus money and available funds in the larger cities was the comparatively ample provision of banking facilities in the cities and in the manufacturing sections, and imperfect provision in the agricultural districts. The whole financial system seemed designed to induce the poorer country districts to lend funds at low rates of interest to be used speculatively in cities, instead of enabling the richer districts, the cities, to lend to the rural districts for productive enterprise. The rates of bank discount in different sections of our country have long been most unequal—lowest in the largest cities, and highest in the rural South and West—whereas in all parts of Canada, with a different system of banking, the rates have long been much more approximately uniform.

Indeed, our national banking development has been predominantly urban and commercial to the neglect of rural and agricultural interests. National banks were (until 1913) forbidden to make loans on real estate, and this greatly "restricted their power to serve farmers and other borrowers in rural communities." There was "no effective agency to meet the ordinary or unusual demands for credit or currency necessary for moving crops or for other legitimate purposes." The lack of uniform standards of regulation, examination, and publication of reports in the different sections prevented the free extension of credit where most needed. Finally, the methods and agencies for making domestic exchange of funds were, compared with other countries, imperfect and uneconomical even in normal times and could not "prevent disastrous disruption of all such exchanges in times of serious trouble."

Sec. 9. Lack of provision for foreign financial operations. Not without its influence on public opinion was the consideration that we had "no American banking institutions in foreign countries." Many bankers and business men felt, as did the commission, that the time had come when the organization of such banks was "necessary for the development of our foreign trade." Foreign banks in South America and the Orient, handling American trade, were believed to favor their own countrymen rather than the interests of American merchants. In contrast with the European nations with their centralized control of banking, we had "no instrumentality that" could "deal effectively with the broad questions which, from an international standpoint, affect the credit and status of the United States as one of the great financial powers of the world. In times of threatened trouble or of actual panic these questions, which involve the course of foreign exchange and the international movements of gold, are even more important to us from a national than from an international standpoint."

Sec. 10. The "Aldrich plan." The National Monetary Commission submitted with its report a plan which was known by the name of the commission's chairman, Senator Aldrich. This plan was embodied in a bill for a National Reserve Association, a bank for banks which bore some likeness to the great central banks of Europe. In the many details of the plan an effort has been made to remedy every one of the difficulties above described and to supply all the needs indicated. The plan was favored pretty generally by bankers, but called forth many adverse opinions. In the year of a presidential election, however, Congress took no action in the matter. All parties were pledged to some kind of banking reform, but particular proposals were not discussed in the campaign.

[Footnote 1: Whichever was the smaller. In 1900 this was changed so that notes could be issued to the full amount of the denomination of the bonds.]

[Footnote 2: In recent years this has been one half of 1 per cent when 2 per cent bonds, and 1 per cent when bonds bearing a higher interest, were deposited.]

[Footnote 3: In reserve cities 25 per cent and in other cities 15 per cent. The details of the regulations in the old law (given in part below, sec. 7) were ll altered by the legislation of 1913.]

[Footnote 4: The expressions within quotation marks in the following sections are taken from this report.]

[Footnote 5: See further on this in sec. 7 on periodical congestion of funds.]

[Footnote 6: See above, sec. 3.]



Chapter 9

THE FEDERAL RESERVE ACT

Sec. 1. General banking organization. Sec. 2. The Federal Reserve Board. Sec. 3. Federal reserve banks. Sec. 4. Federal reserve notes. Sec. 5. Reserves against Federal reserve notes. Sec. 6. Reserves against Federal reserve bank deposits. Sec. 7. Reserves in member banks. Sec. 8. Rediscount by Federal reserve banks. Sec. 9. Changes in national banks. Sec. 10. Operation of the Act.

Sec. 1. General banking organization. President Wilson and the newly elected Congress with its Democratic majority made banking reform one of the main objects on the program for the special session beginning March 5, 1913. The result was the Glass-Owen bill, which became law as the Federal Reserve Act December 23 of that year. The bill was actively discussed within and without the halls of Congress, and many of its features were attacked by bankers individually and acting through the bankers' associations, at various stages of its progress. As a result it underwent numerous amendments in details, and tho it remained in most essentials as it was first proposed, it was at last accepted even by its critics as on the whole a beneficent act of legislation. Indeed, its strongest critics had been the friends of the Aldrich plan, and the Federal Reserve Act embodies, in a greater degree than its authors were ready to admit, the main features of the Aldrich plan. In one important respect, however, it is different; it provides for more decentralization of control and of reserves than did the Aldrich plan. It created not one central banking reserve, but, in the end, twelve regional, or district, banks each to keep the reserves of its district. The Jacksonian tradition of opposition to a central bank[1] in part helps to explain this; in part the contemporary congressional investigation and discussion of the so-called "money-trust" and the consequent desire to decrease the importance of "Wall Street" and of New York city banking power.

On the accompanying map are given the outlines of the districts as constituted and altered down to 1916.[2]



Sec. 2. The Federal Reserve Board. At the head of the banking system stands the Federal Reserve Board of seven members, five of them appointed by the President and Senate of the United States for this purpose, and two serving ex-officio—the Secretary of the Treasury and the Comptroller of the Currency. One of the five shall be designated by the President as Governor and one as Vice-Governor of the Board, but the Secretary of the Treasury is ex-officio chairman. The term of the appointive members is ten years and the salary is $12,000 a year.

The powers of the board are numerous and important. The board is made the head of a real system of banking, the twelve parts of which can, in times of emergency, and at the board's discretion, be compelled to combine their reserves by means of lending to each other (rediscounting), to the very limit of their resources, at rates fixed by the board. By this means the reserves of the several district banks may be "piped together" and thus be practically made into one central bank under governmental control, altho centralization was in outward form avoided by the bill. Alongside of the Reserve Board, is placed a Federal Advisory Council, consisting of one member from the board of directors of each of the twelve district banks. This council has only the power to confer with, make representations and recommendations to, and call for information from, the Federal Reserve Board.

Sec. 3. Federal reserve banks. The twelve Federal reserve banks which opened for business November 16, 1914, are of a type of institution new in our financial history. They are "banks for banks" belonging to the system in their respective districts. Every national bank must, and any state bank or trust company may,[3] subscribe for stock to the amount of 6 per cent of its capital and surplus, and thus become a "member bank." The capital of each Federal reserve bank was to be at least $4,000,000; in fact only two of those organized (Atlanta and Minneapolis) had at their opening less than $5,000,000 capital; the largest (New York) had $21,000,000, and the average was $9,000,000. The member banks are to receive dividends of 6 per cent, cumulative, on this stock, and net earnings above that amount are to be paid to the Government as a franchise tax.[4]

Each reserve bank has nine directors, consisting of three classes of three men each. Classes A and B are elected by the member banks by a system of group and preferential voting designed to prevent the large banks from outvoting the smaller ones. Directors of class A are chosen by the banks to represent them, and are expected to be bankers; those of class B, tho chosen by the banks and tho they may be stockholders, shall not be officers of any bank, and shall at the time of their election be actively engaged within the district in commerce, agriculture, or some other industrial pursuit. Directors in class C are appointed by the Federal Reserve Board, one of them being designated as chairman of the board of directors and as Federal reserve agent. They represent the public particularly, and may not be stockholders of any bank.

Any Federal reserve bank may:

a. Receive deposits from member banks and from the United States.

b. Discount upon the indorsement of any of its member banks negotiable papers, with maturity not more than ninety days, that have arisen out of actual business transactions, but not drawn for the purpose of trading in stock and other investment securities.

c. Purchase in the open market anywhere various kinds of negotiable paper.

d. Deal anywhere in gold coin and bullion.

e. Buy and sell anywhere bills, notes, revenue bonds, and warrants of the states and subdivisions in the continental United States.

f. Fix the rate of discount it shall charge on each class of paper (subject to review by the Federal Reserve Board).

g. Establish accounts with other Federal reserve banks and with banks in foreign countries or establish foreign branches.

h. Apply to the Federal Reserve Board for Federal reserve notes to be issued in the manner below indicated.

Sec. 4. Federal reserve notes. In 1914 there were outstanding about $750,000,000 of what we may now call the old-style bank notes (bond-secured). These were by the new act not forcibly retired at once; but, as the law is shaped, they probably will be retired at the rate of about $25,000,000 a year, and will all disappear from circulation in thirty years.[5]

Whenever the banks having old-style bank notes outstanding desire to retire any of their circulating notes, the Federal reserve banks are required[6] to purchase the bonds in due quota (not to exceed $25,000,000 in any one year). On the deposit of these bonds with the Treasurer of the United States, the Federal reserve banks may receive other circulating notes (essentially of the old style) called Federal reserve bank notes, or may receive 3 per cent bonds not bearing the circulating privilege.

The new kind of notes provided by the act are called Federal reserve notes. They are not secured by the deposit of government bonds, but they are secured beyond all question in other ways. First, they are obligations of the United States receivable for all taxes, customs, and other public dues, and are redeemable in gold on demand at the Treasury of the United States. Secondly they are receivable by all member banks in the twelve districts and by all Federal reserve banks, and redeemable by the latter in gold or lawful money (which includes greenbacks and gold and silver certificates). Thirdly, their credit and prompt redemption is insured by certain elastic rules as to reserves in gold which must be kept for the redemption of outstanding notes. Fourthly, they are secured by collateral, consisting of notes and bills accepted for rediscount from member banks, which must be deposited by a Federal reserve bank with the Federal reserve agent of its district, dollar for dollar for every note it receives. Fifthly, the notes become "a first and paramount lien on all the assets of the bank." This is what gives the notes their character of asset currency. It is evident that the notes unite in a manner without example the characteristic of asset bank notes with the characteristics of political paper money.[7]

No notes, it will be observed, are issued by or on request of the member banks, but only on request of a Federal reserve bank. After the notes have been issued, the bank may reduce its liability any day by depositing lawful money with the Federal reserve agent who is right there in the bank. The Federal reserve banks and the United States Treasury must promptly return to the banks through which they were issued all notes as fast as they are received, and "no Federal reserve bank shall pay out notes issued through another on penalty of a tax of ten per centum." The regulations do not apply to the member banks, but their effect must be to keep notes from circulating long in any district except that for which they were issued.

Sec. 5. Reserves against Federal reserve notes. The rule applying in normal times to reserves against note issues is that each bank must provide a reserve in gold equal to 40 per cent "against the Federal reserve notes in actual circulation, and not offset by gold or lawful money deposited with the Federal reserve agent." At least 5 per cent is to be on deposit in the Treasury of the United States. The proportion of reserves to the liability for note issues by any bank, however, may be allowed to fall below 40 per cent, on condition that the Federal Reserve Board shall establish a graduated tax of not more than 1 per cent per annum (it evidently might be made less if the board chose) upon such deficiency, until the reserves fall to 32-1/2 per cent and thereafter a graduated tax of not less than 1-1/2 per cent on each additional 2-1/2 per cent deficiency or fraction thereof.[8]

This tax must be paid by the reserve bank, but it must add an amount equal to the tax to the rates of interest and discount charged to member banks. The effect of these rules is to give a power of note issue in time of emergency without compelling the reserve banks to lock up their reserves held against notes. Suppose for example that the circulating notes were in normal times $1,000,000,000 and the reserves, therefore, were $400,000,000 and the rate of discount 5 per cent. Then the circulation might be doubled with the same reserves, the proportion thus falling to 20 per cent of outstanding notes, and the rate of discount to customers rising to 13.5 per cent (5 plus 8.5). Or, to take a most extreme supposition, suppose that the withdrawal of gold had been so great as to reduce the reserves against notes to $50,000,000; yet outstanding notes might be doubled (becoming $2,000,000,000,) the proportion falling to 2.5 per cent, the rate of discount rising to 24 (5 plus 19).

Sec. 6. Reserves against Federal reserve bank deposits. Every Federal reserve bank shall, under normal conditions, maintain reserves in lawful money of not less than 35 per cent against its deposits. But the Federal Reserve Board may suspend any reserve requirement in the Act for a period not exceeding 30 days and from time to time renew the suspension for periods not exceeding 15 days; but in that case it must establish a graduated tax upon the amounts by which the reserve requirements may be permitted to fall below the levels specified as to note issues. Altho the amount of the tax on the deficiency of reserves against deposits is not indicated in the act (as it is in respect to excess note issues) it is plainly the thought that the Board, to which discretion is left, will follow somewhat the same rule in both cases. The great discretionary power as to reserve requirements thus lodged in the hands of the Board makes possible at times of emergency the use of the reserves both of the reserve banks and of the member banks, down to the last dollar, if need be, without violation of law. This gives practically unlimited opportunity to expand credit both by the issue of bank notes and by discount and deposit in periods of financial crises.

Sec. 7. Reserves in member banks. A fundamental change is made in the rules as to the reserves against deposits that must be maintained by the member banks. A new distinction is made between time and demand deposits. Time deposits are defined as those payable after thirty days or subject to not less than thirty days' notice; and demand deposits as those payable within thirty days. In every case the reserve requirement against time deposits is only 5 per cent. This gives encouragement to banks to maintain savings departments.

The requirements as to reserves against demand deposits are not uniform, being the lowest for banks in smaller cities (the great majority), larger for banks in the reserve cities, and largest for banks in the three central reserve cities (New York, Chicago, St. Louis). The act substitutes the new Federal reserve banks for the banks in reserve and central reserve cities as the depositories of funds that may[9] be counted as a part of the reserves of member banks. The new rule requires that one-third must be in the bank's own possession, a fraction slightly over a third must be in the Federal reserve bank, and the remainder may be kept in either place. This may be tabulated as follows:

Not in In reserve In central reserve cities cities reserve cities

Total reserves, per cent 12 15 18 Must be in its own vaults 4/12 5/15 6/18 May be either place 3/12 4/15 5/18 Must be in a Federal reserve bank 5/12 6/15 7/18

These requirements as to total reserves are, as compared with requirements of national banks under the old law, a reduction respectively of 20 per cent, 40 per cent, and 28 per cent. The total decrease in the amount of reserves required for all three classes of national banks was about $400,000,000 on the amount of deposits held in September, 1914.

Sec. 8. Rediscounts by Federal reserve banks. More important than any other single feature of the act is, however, that by which each Federal reserve bank is to rediscount notes, drafts, and bills of exchange arising out of actual commercial transactions, when indorsed and presented by any of its member banks. This, quite apart from the note issues, gives a power to the banks collectively, under the general supervision and control of the board, to expand credits indefinitely at any time for real business purposes. Any business man able to offer any commercial paper of sound quality should now be able to borrow on it at some rate of discount, even in the most stringent times. And, in turn, every member bank will now be able at such times to rediscount such paper and thus secure credit toward its reserve requirement on the books of its Federal reserve bank. Suppose, for example, that a member bank (in a central reserve city) saw its reserve in the Federal bank fall below 7 per cent of its deposits. It could by rediscounting $7000 worth of notes increase by $38,888 the amount to which it might legally extend credit to its customers (i.e., $7000 is 18 per cent of that sum). The deposits of the Federal reserve bank would then be increased $7000, against which it must have a reserve of 35 per cent, or $2450. If the reserves of any Federal reserve bank fall too low, it can in turn rediscount its paper with the other Federal reserve banks.[10] If the time comes when no one of the twelve banks can longer maintain a 35 per cent reserve, the board may reduce or suspend the requirement, levying a tax graduated according to the deficiency. The provision here for elasticity of credit combined with union and solidarity of all the central banking reserves of the country to meet unusual demands in emergencies, exceeds any needs which can be expected to arise.

Sec. 9. Changes in national banks. There is here created a national system of reserves, but it will be observed that membership in the new system of the Federal reserve banks is not limited to national banks, but is open on equal terms to banks organized under state laws. While in most respects the general banking law remains as it was, certain changes are of importance. The percentage of reserves henceforth required of all member banks (as above indicated) is a substantial reduction of the former requirement for national banks. In some other respects the powers of national banks are enlarged. One with a capital and surplus of $1,000,000 may with the approval of the Board establish foreign branches, and one not situated in a central reserve city may loan on farm lands for a term not longer than five years, but not to exceed one third of its time deposits or 25 per cent of its capital and surplus. National banks may now be granted permission by the board to act as trustee, executor, administrator, or registrar of stocks and bonds, thus having the rights that have proved in many cases to be of advantage to trust companies organized under state laws.

Sec. 10. Operation of the Act. It was fortunate that this act was nearly ready to be put into operation when, August 1, 1914, the great European war broke out. The able appointees to the Federal Reserve Board commanded the confidence of the bankers and of the public. The knowledge that the reserve banks would early begin operations was reassuring during the grave financial stress of the next three months, and the opening of the district banks in November, 1914, at once made possible the release for commercial uses of cash reserves and credits to meet the needs of reviving business.[11] Only an extended experience can show how this enormous new banking organization will operate as a whole and in its details.

Because of the very wide discretionary powers given to the board in the administration of the act much depends on the character and ability of the members of the board as well as on a sound public opinion that will keep this great power from use in partisan and selfish ways. No doubt amendments of the act will appear necessary, but there can be no question that the Federal Reserve Act has inaugurated a new epoch in the banking and financial history of our country.[12]

[Footnote 1: See ch. 8, sec. 1.]

[Footnote 2: The law provided that an organization committee should designate not less than eight nor more than twelve cities as Federal reserve cities and should divide the continental United States, excluding Alaska, into districts each containing one such city. Twelve districts were designated. Wherever, therefore, the act speaks of "not less than eight nor more than twelve," or of "as many as there are Federal reserve districts," we may, for convenience, speak of twelve.]

[Footnote 3: On agreeing to comply with reserve and capital requirements of national banks and to submit to Federal examination.]

[Footnote 4: Except that until the surplus of any reserve bank amounts to 40 per cent of its paid-in capital stock, one half of its net earnings shall be paid into a surplus fund.]

[Footnote 5: These notes are all secured by the deposit of bonds of the United States, a large share of them bearing interest at the very low rate of 2 per cent. Two per cent is less than the market rate for government loans, for 3 per cent bonds without this privilege sell above par. Therefore these 2 per cent bonds were held almost exclusively by banks, and would have lost a good share of their value had the note-deposit privilege been withdrawn.]

[Footnote 6: Through the Federal Reserve Board or they may do it voluntarily, sec. 4.]

[Footnote 7: The Act does not explicitly say by whom the notes are issued: it says that they are "to be issued at the discretion of the Federal Reserve Board"; that "the said notes shall be obligations of the United States." Further on the notes are spoken of as "issued to" a Federal reserve bank, and again as "issued through" a Federal reserve bank, but not by it. But the phrase occurs (sec. 16) "its [i.e., the Federal reserve bank's] Federal reserve notes." The notes thus are technically issued by the United States, but not as ordinary political (fiat) money, for they are not given a forced circulation by the Government in paying its indebtedness. But the banks "shall pay such rate of interest on" the amounts of notes outstanding as may be established by the Federal Reserve Board (i.e., to the Government of the United States). Practically the notes (as respects choice of time of issue, amounts, profits from them, commercial assets to secure them and to redeem them) are asset currency issued by the several Federal reserve banks.]

[Footnote 8: This may be shown in the following table:

When reserves against notes are the tax rate upon the total are— deficiency shall be—

Below 40.0 to 32.5 per cent 1.0 per cent " 35.5 to 30.0 " " 2.5 " " " 30.0 to 27.5 " " 4.0 " " " 27.5 to 25.0 " " 5.5 " " " 25.0 to 22.5 " " 7.0 " " " 22.5 to 20.0 " " 8.5 " " " 20.0 to 17.5 " " 10.0 " " " 17.5 to 15.0 " " 11.5 " " " 15.0 to 12.5 " " 13.0 " " " 12.5 to 10.0 " " 14.5 " " " 10.0 to 7.5 " " 16.0 " " " 7.5 to 5.0 " " 17.5 " " " 5.0 to 2.5 " " 19.0 " " " 2.5 to 0.0 " " 20.5 " " ]

[Footnote 9: The complete application of the new rule is deferred for a period of three years from the passage of the act.]

[Footnote 10: See on "piping" provision, sec. 2, above.]

[Footnote 11: See sec. 7 above.]

[Footnote 12: Several other features of the law well merit description. Among these features are measures for developing bankers' acceptances, open market operations, the gold clearing system of the Federal Reserve Board, and the clearing of checks and parring of exchange.]



CHAPTER 10

CRISES AND INDUSTRIAL DEPRESSIONS

Sec. 1. Mischance, special and general, in business. Sec. 2. Definitions. Sec. 3. A feature of a money economy. Sec. 4. European crises. Sec. 5. American crises. Sec. 6. A business cycle. Sec. 7. General features of a crisis. Sec. 8. "Glut" theories of crises. Sec. 9. Monetary theories of crises. Sec. 10. Capitalization theory of crises. Sec. 11. The use of credit. Sec. 12. Interest rates in a crisis. Sec. 13. Dynamic conditions and price readjustments. Sec. 14. Tariff changes and business uncertainty. Sec. 15. Rhythmic changes in weather and in crops. Sec. 16. Remedies for crises.

Sec. 1. Mischance, special and general, in business. Every separate business enterprise is subject to chances which suddenly decrease its profits and the prosperity of its owners; such are fire, flood, illness of its owners, unfavorable changes in prices of materials or of the products.[1] The interests of many other persons in the neighborhood may be so bound up with an enterprise that its losses may mean unemployment, lower wages to workingmen, and bankruptcy to local merchants and to banks. Sometimes misfortune and disaster affect whole communities. The lack of cotton while the Civil War was in progress compelled the factories of Manchester to close in 1864, and the earthquake and fire in San Francisco in 1906 left a quarter of a million people homeless.

But a change of business conditions is constantly occurring that is of wider extent, that is of less accidental and of more rhythmic nature, and that appears to be the effect of slowly working and more general causes. The enterprise of a modern community, as a whole, "general business," moves along, in a wavelike manner, going through a somewhat regular series of changes that is called a business cycle. We are now to study the nature of these cycles.

Sec. 2. Definitions. Crisis means, generally, a decisive moment or turning point. The word crisis suggests a brief period, a moment, something that is sudden, severe, and soon over. In medical usage it is the period when the disease must take a turn for better or for worse. As used in economics, the term, however, implies a sudden change of business conditions for the worse, a collapse of prosperity. What precedes has not the appearance of disease, but rather that of exuberant health. Crises in economics may be distinguished as industrial, speculative, and financial, according as one or another influence seems to be more potent, but all are essentially financial. The change that occurs always is connected in some way with the use of money and credit.

A financial crisis is the culmination of a period of rising prices, and a sudden fall which shatters the credit of some banks, brokers, merchants, and manufacturers. Every crisis is marked by much confusion and loss and by hasty efforts of individuals and institutions to meet their pressing obligations. Sometimes this process of liquidation goes on quietly and in other cases it becomes a wild scramble, each one trying to save himself, in which case it is a financial panic. An industrial depression is the period of hard times that usually follows a financial crisis.

Sec. 3. A feature of a money economy. Financial crises, by their very nature, are confined to communities in which the money economy prevails and where there is a developed state of industry. The periods of industrial hardship in the Middle Ages were connected usually not with the collapse of prices, but with political oppression, famine, wars, pestilence, and scourges of nature. Throughout the lands money was little used and there was no development of credit and of credit prices. The money economy began, as has been noted, in the cities. As the use of money spread, as larger commercial enterprises were undertaken, as borrowing and the payment of interest became common, there began to appear in city trading circles, on a small scale, the phenomena of the modern crisis.[2]

Sec. 4. European crises. In Europe financial crises date from 1763 and have occurred at more or less regular intervals since. The common statement that the cycle of a crisis is run in a period of ten years, finds only partial support in history. The chief crises of the eighteenth century occurred in 1763, 1783, 1793, these dates marking the close of wars of some magnitude. The crises were not widespread or general, but were more marked in England, which was at that time farther developed industrially and in its money economy than other countries. Likewise, in the nineteenth century, the crises were of unequal force in various countries, usually being severer in England. They may be dated 1803, 1825, 1838, 1847, 1857, 1864-66, 1875, 1890, 1900, 1907, and 1914. These were attributed to various causes; that of 1825 to over-trading abroad; that of 1847 to railroad-building; while that of 1866 followed the severe disturbance of trade in 1864 caused by the interruption of the cotton trade and commerce by the Civil War in America. While in many parts of England the crisis of 1864 was unusually severe, in other countries it was of little moment. Germany, after several years of great speculative prosperity, had a most severe crisis in 1875; while France, although prostrated by the war of 1870-71, losing a large amount of wealth, and paying a thousand millions of dollars to Germany as a war indemnity, escaped a commercial crisis almost entirely at that time.

Sec. 5. American crises. Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, the financial connections of the United States with London, the leading loan market of Europe, have been such that every crisis in either England or America has extended its effects to the other country. But the disturbances are so modified by the particular conditions (of crops, politics, and speculation) that the phenomena never correspond exactly in time of occurrence, in duration, or in intensity. The first notable crisis in America occurred about 1817 in the very violent readjustment of trade after the resumption of commerce with Europe in 1816.[3] In 1837-39 came in quick succession two crises, not quite distinct from each other, the second similar to the relapse of a fever patient. The conditions were rapid westward expansion, over-speculation in lands, reckless state internal improvements, great issues of state bank notes, and the financial measures of Andrew Jackson, which included the dissolution of the Second Bank of the United States in 1836.[4] The crisis of 1857 followed a period of great prosperity marked by rising gold production and prices and a great increase in foreign trade. The crisis of 1873, possibly the severest in our history, followed great speculation, especially in the direction of railroad building on an unexampled scale after the war. The blow, when it fell, was intensified by the relative contraction of currency then in progress, leading to the return to a specie basis and lower prices.[5] The crisis of 1884, a comparatively slight one, occasioned (rather than caused) by the discussion of the money question, was followed by some years of noticeable depression. The years 1889 to 1892 witnessed prosperity, only slightly interrupted in 1890, that culminated in a crisis in May, 1893 (likewise generally explained as due to the unsettled state of our monetary system), followed by a period of great depression lasting until 1897. A rapid growth of business was checked but little in 1900 when a crisis occurred in Europe, especially severe in Germany. In November, 1902, began in America what has been called "the rich man's panic" of 1903 in which for a year many securities were sold by holders because European creditors were recalling their loans. American business, however, slackened but little, altho building operations were somewhat checked. General prices, which had been moving upward since 1897, remained almost unchanged in 1903 and 1904, and then continued going upward until 1907. In the period from September to November of that year occurred a severe crisis both in Europe and in America. The industrial depression following this was marked in 1908, slowly growing less. The crisis at the outbreak of the war in August, 1914, was quite exceptional, being due to the sudden demand of Europe upon New York for funds. Within a couple of months it was over and soon prices were again rising as the result of large exports of merchandise followed by gold imports.

Sec. 6. A business cycle. Let us now sketch in broad outline a business cycle, bearing in mind that this series of changes does not repeat itself with unvarying regularity, but that it is fairly typical in the modern business world. The period leading up to a crisis is one of relative prosperity; then occurs a crisis in which prices fall, at first rapidly, and afterward for a while going slowly lower. When prices are at the lowest point many factories are closed, and much labor is unemployed. Let us start at that point. Conditions are worse in some industries than in others. General economy and great caution prevail; few new enterprises are undertaken. For those persons having available funds this is a good time to buy, and property begins to change hands. Then hoarded money begins to come out of its hiding places. Money and credit flow in from other countries, particularly if business conditions are better abroad than here, for when prices are lower than they have been, relative to those of other countries, a country is a good place in which to buy. At the same time that the money in circulation thus increases, there is a general return of confidence that increases credit. Not only are there more dollars, but each does more work. Then old enterprises are resumed and new ones are undertaken. The purchase of materials in larger quantities causes a rapid rise in the prices of many raw materials and of all kinds of industrial equipment. The less efficient laborers and others that have been out of work, begin to find employment, and then, more tardily, wages begin to rise. As a result, the costs of many products begin to rise rapidly. The only classes not sharing in this improvement are the receivers of fixed incomes. As prices rise, the purchasing power of their incomes correspondingly falls.

At length prices begin to go up less rapidly, and the question arises in many minds whether the movement can continue, and if not, when it will cease. Men wish to hold on for the last profits, and are willing to risk something to gain them. When prices rise not only as compared with former domestic prices, but as compared with current foreign prices, foreign imports are stimulated and exports fall. This calls for a new equilibrium of money and requires at length large and continued exportation of specie. This checks prices, and, reducing the specie reserves of the banks, compels them to be more cautious. At the same time the increase of costs in many industries begins to reduce profits. The fall in the value of many stocks and securities held by the banks forces many brokers and speculators to convert their resources into ready money. This is the moment of danger; weak enterprises find their foundations crumbling, and there are many failures.[6] The falling prices, the shattered credit, and the financial losses force many factories to close, and many workmen are thrown out of employment. This moment of widespread loss is the crisis, It is followed by another period of low prices and of small output, and therefore of profits small or negative in many industries. Business must again enter upon a period of retrenchment, for it has completed another cycle.

Sec. 7. General features of a crisis. Altho irregular in time of occurrence and unlike in their immediate occasions, financial crises show certain general features. They are a part of the larger movement here outlined as the business cycle. Some have thought this cycle to be normally a period of ten years, divided into one year of crisis, three years of depression, three years of recovery, and three years of unusual prosperity. This succession of events occurs pretty regularly, though not in the regular intervals of time. Crises are more severe in countries with more extensive use of money and credit, but still more severe where the credit system is more loosely administered and less efficiently cooerdinated. They are harder in the United States and England than in Germany, harder in Germany than in France, harder in western Europe than in eastern Europe, harder in Christendom than in heathendom. They are less severe in rural districts, where prosperity depends more on crop conditions, and business has in it less of financial speculation. Their effects are least felt in the staple industries, for when hard times come people economize on the less essential things. The glove-factory, the silk-factory, the golf-club-factory are more likely to close than the flour-mill. In a crisis wages and salaries are less affected than are profits, but wageworkers suffer in the loss of employment. Those money lenders who have eliminated chance as far as possible and have taken a low rate of interest lose little; the risk-takers who draw their incomes from dividends on stock or from bonds of a less stable kind, often lose much.

Sec. 8. "Glut" theories of crises. Many explanations of the causes of financial crises have been offered.[7] Nearly all of these belong to the general group of "glut" theories, of which genus there are two species, under-consumption and over-production theories. These are, in truth, but two aspects of the same idea.[8] The one view is that too many goods are produced, the other that too few are consumed. The over-production theorist seeing that in a crisis warehouses are filled with goods that cannot be disposed of for what they cost (or at best, not so as to give a profit), and that factories are shut down and men are out of employment for lack of demand, declares that productive power has grown too great. The under-consumption theorist, seeing the same facts, says that the trouble is lack of purchasing power. He observes that there are some people who would like to buy more of some of these things, but that such people lack income with which to buy. Usually he asserts that this is because production grows faster than wages, wages being fixed, as he believes, by the minimum of subsistence—a theory akin to the iron law of wages. In both over-production and under-consumption theories, the inequality of demand and supply is looked upon as a general one. There is supposed to be not merely an unequal and mistaken distribution of production, but a general excess of productive power.

The wide vogue held by these views would justify a fuller discussion and disproof of them here, did space permit. It must suffice to indicate merely that they have the same taint of illogicalness as the "fallacy of waste," and the "fallacy of luxury."[9] They overlook the fact that an income, either of money or of other goods, coming even to the wealthiest, will be used in some way. It may be used either for immediate consumption or for further indirect use in durable form. Through miscalculation there may be, at a given moment, too many consumption goods of a particular kind, but the durable applications can find no limit until the inconceivable day when the material world is no longer capable of improvement. At the time of a crisis, there is unquestionably a bad apportionment of productive agents, and a still worse adjustment of their valuations, but these facts should not be taken as proving that there is an excess of all kinds of economic goods.

Sec. 9. Monetary theories of crises. Another group of theories explains the crises as being due to money, either too much or too little. The unregulated issue of bank notes has been assigned as the cause of crises, especially under the circumstances accompanying such crises as those of 1837 and 1857 in America, when bank note issues greatly contributed to the unsound expansion of credit. The issue of government paper money years before, leading to inflation and speculation, was by many believed to be the cause of the crisis of 1873. The reverse view is taken by the advocates of a cheap and plentiful money. They say that these crises were caused, not by the expansion, but by the contraction of the money stock; for example, not by the inflation of prices through the issue of greenbacks in 1862 to 1865, but by the contraction of the currency from 1866 to 1873.

There is only a fragment of truth in these various views. It is always lack of "money" at the moment of the crisis that causes any particular failure, and in that sense it is always lack of "money" that causes a crisis. The question is, whether in any reasonable sense it can be said that it was lack of a circulating medium before the crisis that brought it on. There is no support for this view, except in the rare case when the money standard is undergoing a rapid change, as in the United States from 1866 to 1873, and the statement then needs much modification and explanation. The monetary theories of crises are a bit nearer to the truth than are those of the over-production type, for the crisis is always connected with prices and credit. But it is clear that these rhythmic price changes occurring in the business cycle are not due to the same causes as are the general movements of the price level, due to an increasing or decreasing output of gold or again to a paper money inflation. Statistics show that while a general price level is slowly changing like a tidal movement, the effect of the rhythmic business cycle appears now in hastening, now in retarding, the changes in the price level.

Sec. 10. Capitalization theory of crises. Here we verge upon a different type of explanation of the financial crisis—one of a psychological nature. The quantity of money, we have seen, affects prices more or less according as credit is more or less used in connection with it. Money plus confidence has a larger power of sustaining prices, than money without, or with less, confidence. And throughout the business cycle the amount of confidence, expressed in such ways as the readiness to grant credits and in the easy extension of the time of collection, is constantly changing. Over-confidence at one time is suddenly followed by widespread lack of confidence. This has led some to say that lack of confidence is the cause of crises. This is a truism, but it does not explain what is the real cause of this lack of confidence, which, when the crisis comes, is not mere unreasoning fear that needs only to ignore the danger to banish it. Might it not just as truly, if not more truly, be said that the cause is over-confidence in the period preceding the crisis?

The essential characteristic of a crisis is the forcible and sudden movement of readjustment in the mistaken capitalization of productive agents. Capitalization runs through all industry. The value of everything that lasts for more than a moment is built in part upon incomes that are not actual, but expectative, whose amount, therefore, is a matter of guesswork, or "speculation."[10] Many unknown factors enter into the estimate of future incomes. The universal tendency to rhythm in motion (material or psychic) manifests itself in an overestimate or underestimate of incomes and of every other factor in value. This is emphasized by a psychological factor called sometimes the "hypnotism of the crowd," and sometimes, the "mob mind." Most men follow a leader in investment as in other things. The spirit of speculation grows till often it becomes almost a frenzy, and people rush toward this or that investment, throwing capitalization in some industries far out of equilibrium with that in others.

The cause of crises immediately back of the maladjusted capitalization thus is seen to be a psychological factor; it is the rhythmic miscalculation of incomes and of capital value, occurring to some degree throughout industry, but particularly in certain lines. This subjective cause in men is given an opportunity for action only when certain favoring objective conditions are present.

Sec. 11. The use of credit. Most noteworthy of these objective conditions is the general use of credit. The credit system greatly enhances the rhythm of price. If the value of a thing that is fully paid for falls, the owner alone loses; but if the value of a thing only partly paid for falls so much that the owner is forced to default in his payment, the loss may be transmitted along the line of credit to every one in a long series of transactions. A credit system, highly developed, is a house of cards at a time of financial stress. Demand liabilities are at such a time the greatest danger, so that the banks, ordinarily the pillars of financial strength, become at such a time the points of greatest weakness in the financial situation. If many of the customers were not restrained by their sense of personal obligation to the banks, by the strong pressure which the banks can bring to bear upon them, or by the force of public opinion among business men, from withdrawing the balances to their credit in a time of crisis, all commercial banks would become insolvent at once in a crisis by the very nature of their business; for all their ordinary deposits are nominally payable on demand.

Sec. 12. Interest rates in a crisis. In normal times there is always outstanding a great mass of short-time, commercial loans.[11] The motive of the borrower, in most cases has been to hire more labor and to buy more materials for use in his business. Ordinarily these loans can and are renewed without difficulty or are replaced by others, based on the security of new business transactions in unbroken succession. Now at the time of a crisis a general contraction of credit occurs, and all borrowers with maturing obligations are faced with bankruptcy. The effort of the business man at such a time is not to make a positive profit, but to save what he can from the threatened wreck. The demand for short-time loans, therefore, in such times of stress, fluctuates rapidly, and exceedingly high interest rates prevail in these loan markets for a few days or a few weeks, rates which have only a remote relationship with the usual capitalization of most agents.

The distress of the business man is magnified by the fact that it is just at such times that both the equipment he has bought and the products he has made become temporarily almost unsaleable at prices as high as he paid for them when he bought them with the borrowed money. He may know that prices will soon be higher, but he cannot wait. Various courses are open to him in this emergency; he may borrow the money at a very high rate of interest, holding the goods for better prices; or he may sell the goods under the unfavorable conditions; or he may sell other capital such as stocks and bonds. The end sought is the same—to get ready money; and the methods are not essentially unlike—the exchange of greater future values for smaller present values. The sacrifice sale thus reveals the merchant's high estimate of present goods in the form of money. The purchaser of some kinds of property in times of depression is securing them at a lower capitalization than they will later have. The rise in value may be foreseen as well by seller as by buyer, but the low capitalization reflects the high interest rate temporarily obtaining. A.T. Stewart, once the most famous New York merchant, is said to have laid the foundation of his fortune when, being out of debt himself, he bought up the bankrupt stocks of his competitors in a great financial panic. The high interest at such times is but the reflection of the high premium on present purchasing power.

The worst of the evils of crises are confined to the markets where the greatest numbers of short-time loans are made. Most of the long-time loans do not fall due in such seasons of stress, and the great mass of slowly exchanging wealth alters little and slowly in price. Such loans as fall due can generally be renewed for long periods at rates little higher than usual, the market for long-time and short-time loans being in large measure independent of each other. But they are not quite independent, and some lenders take whatever sums they can collect on maturing long-time obligations and loan them on short terms at high rates of interest, or buy goods, whole enterprises, bonds, and stocks, at the unusually low prices temporarily prevailing. The effect of this is to raise somewhat the interest rate on long-time paper to accord with the new conditions.

Sec. 13. Dynamic conditions and price readjustments. Another condition favorable to the rhythmic movement of capitalization is a dynamic economic society. The past century has opened up new fields for investment on an unexampled scale. Investment has advanced both intensively and extensively in a series of great waves. New machinery and processes have given undreamt of opportunities for enterprise in the older countries, and the physical frontier of investment has moved outward with the march of millions of immigrants to people the fertile wilderness. Such factors disturb the equilibrium of prices both in time and space, give a powerful impulse toward higher values in the older lands, and stimulate the hopes of all investors. When the balance between the capitalizations of various industries and between the incomes of the various periods proves to be false, the inevitable readjustment causes suffering and loss to many, but particularly in the inflated industries. But, because of the mutual relations of men in business, few even of those who have kept freest from speculation can quite escape the evils.

Among the dynamic conditions in industry are changes in the general price level whether due to changes in the production of the standard money commodity (relative to population) or to changing methods of doing business. If the price level is falling (i.e., the standard unit is appreciating), the burden of the great mass of outstanding debts is growing heavier upon the debtors.[12] Sooner or later some of them break down under its weight. At such times many attempt to shift their capital from active investments such as stocks, to passive investments such as bonds. When the price level is rising, the opposite conditions prevail. But such adjustments proceed uncertainly and unevenly in different industries, with much speculation in shifting from one type of business to another, and with much accompanying miscalculation.

Sec. 14. Tariff changes and business uncertainty. Another variable influence in American business has been the tariff. Every tariff revision, whether the rates go upward or downward, shifts somewhat the relative opportunities and profitableness of different industries. Some of these call for far-reaching readjustments of investments and of productive forces. Some persons gain and some lose by every such change. It is observed that a reduction of tariff rates seems to have a more disturbing effect upon business than does an increase. This probably is because the industries favored by protective tariffs in America are those most fully within the circle affected by crises; whereas most of the consumers adversely affected by a rise of tariff rates are outside the commercial circles where short-time credit is common and where the rapid readjustment of investment leads to a financial crisis. It never has been convincingly shown, however, that there is any large measure of correspondence in time (not to say causal relation) between tariff revisions and crises.[13]