Thus, despite the immeasurable advantages which England enjoyed, political, social, and industrial, her great colonial possessions from which she drew enormous wealth, and her exemption from destructive war; despite also the distressing condition of France and her recent enormous losses, we find that in seventy years of bimetallism the working Frenchman had gained wealth almost twice as fast as the working Englishman had in the same number of years of monometallism.

France became a creditor nation, and yielded to the general pressure for a single gold standard; she has lost heavily, as shown in her table of exports, but she still retains a large part of the momentum acquired during seventy years of bimetallism. Her wealth is still rated at something over $40,000,000,000; her people have accumulated stocks of the precious metals far in excess of those of any other country; and their business is so solidly founded that the storm which recently shook the foundations of credit throughout the British Empire scarcely produced a quiver in France. They have wisely avoided the excessive issues of faith money (or check money) which are the ever-present danger of England, America, and other monometallic countries; and as a result, they have almost entirely escaped those fearful convulsions have that threatened the political stability of great nations. In fact, it is no exaggeration to say that France has only felt the convulsions of recent years by their reflex action on her from other countries; and twice within very recent years has the Bank of England been compelled to go to France for the coin to stay the devastating work of panics resulting from over-expansion of faith money on an insufficient metallic basis.

France has an area less than that of Texas by some 60,000 square miles, yet its aggregate wealth is two-thirds that of the United States; and on the basis of assessed value her agricultural wealth is very much greater than ours. Mulhall, the great British statistician, says of France that she is "the best cultivated country in Europe." Her 6,000,000 peasant proprietors are the owners of nearly all her cultivatable soil, which is worth, on an average, $160 per acre. She has over 400,000 miles of the finest common roads in the world, which have cost her, at the ordinary rate of labor, over $5,000,000,000. Their benefit goes chiefly to agriculture, binding the farmers of different provinces and farmers and city dwellers together. She has over 10,000 miles of canals and canalized rivers; she has 25,000 miles of railways, all in the highest state of efficiency. She has, during her bimetallic period, become the second colonial power of the world, and has acquired foreign territory at such a rate as to excite the jealousy of England. She has become the second naval power on the globe, and the second exporting nation, her exports averaging some $900,000,000 per year, an amount larger than the exports from this country, which has a population nearly double that of France, nearly all of it being manufactures; and had the same rate of growth continued as was maintained before France became monometallic, it is fair to presume that her exports at this time would have equalled those of Great Britain. Best of all, the great increase of wealth is in the hands of those who created it. It is the universal testimony of all observers that the condition of the French people and the general aspect of France has steadily improved throughout this century. It is a country in which poor-houses are unknown; in her cities a beggar is a curiosity. In their country's emergency the common people came forward and out of their savings paid $1,000,000,000 accumulated during the bimetallic period. Despite the loss of $240,000,000 in the Panama Canal and of $1,000,000,000 in the indemnity to Germany, as well as two of her richest provinces, France has accumulated hundreds of millions of dollars in the securities of other countries, and has only recently been able to subscribe twenty-five times over the Russian loan, and is negotiating a loan to China, the money for which is to be supplied by her working people.

Be it noted also that the debt of France is held by the people of France, largely by the industrial class, and especially by the agricultural class, and the interest thereon paid, instead of being a foreign drain, is a perpetual renewal of the current circulation.

One more brief contrast between France and England. No reader of current literature need be told of the appalling prevalence of poverty in Great Britain. As France is a country without poor-houses, so it may be said that England is a land of poor rates and poor unions. The latest official announcement is that the agricultural interest is declining more rapidly than ever before; and in regions where only fifteen years ago the land rented readily at several pounds per acre, statesmen and economists are appalled at the sight of that which so alarmed our New England people a few years ago: the phenomenon of abandoned farms. We are told that there is a revival of industry because British capitalists have withdrawn their money from other countries and will put it in anything rather than have it entirely idle; but the condition of agriculture steadily grows worse.

And have we anything to boast of in our own happy land in comparison with France? Our natural resources so far exceed those of any old country that a comparison would be ridiculous; and the monometallists tell us, when they are trying to prove that gold is not enhanced in value, that, by reason of inventions, a day's labor will produce at least twice as much as in 1870, and in many lines a great deal more than twice as much. Why, then, does not the laborer receive twice as much as he did in 1870? As wages are labor's dividend of its own product, and as capital had its dividend then as now, if a day's labor does not bring the laborer twice what it did, he is wronged; and, considering our resources, if we are not five times as well off as the French people, the only reason can be that we have slighted our opportunities, and blundered most fearfully in our management.

The monometallists profess to be great sticklers for experience and demonstrated fact; to have a horror of "theory." We present them the example of France as an unanswerable proof that one great nation can maintain bimetallism, and that by maintaining it she escaped the worst evils that have affected the monometallic countries, and assured for herself an extraordinary progress and prosperity. We present them, in contrast, the example of England, and point them especially to the great difference in the progress of the common people of the two countries. We ask them, with this experience, to consider the present condition of this country, and the evils that have affected it since 1873, and seriously to consider the question as to whether something is not radically wrong; whether some malign influence has not gone between us and the reward of our work, and robbed us of that to which we are honestly entitled.



BIMETALLISM ABROAD.

Many monometallists start with the assumption that what they call the "silver craze" is a mere fad, temporary and local; that the advocates of bimetallism are confined chiefly to the United States, and to the western part of it, and that, if they are thoroughly defeated at the November election, the discussion will be at an end.

"Mistaken souls that dream of heaven."

They do not realize that, although it has not taken the same popular form, the discussion is quite as serious in monometallic Germany and England, and in the latter country opinion has so far advanced that both parties agree on the enormous enhancement in the value of gold. There is now scarcely a difference of opinion in England on this point, but there is as to the effect. British monometallists assert that as England is a great creditor nation, the world owing her, as estimated, $12,000,000,000, every advance in the purchasing power of money is greatly to her advantage. In Mr. Gladstone's last public speech on the subject he stated that fact with great frankness, claiming that it was to England's interest that money should remain as now in purchasing power, and that if she should abandon the gold basis, because gold is worth far more than it was a few years ago, the world might applaud her generosity, but it would sneer at her wisdom.

The bimetallists of England, on the other hand, assert that the enormous losses of traders owing to the dislocation of the par with silver-using countries, of manufacturers by reason of the rapidly increasing competition of the same countries, of home debtors and of many other classes, and especially the loss to agriculture, far outweigh any gain made by the creditors as such.

The national debts of Europe now amount in round numbers to some $22,000,000,000. Including all other countries, the total of national debts exceeds $26,000,000,000, and the growth for many years averaged $500,000,000 per year. The local public debts of England and Canada are set at $1,735,000,000. According to the best authorities, the mortgage indebtedness of the principal European nations is as follows:

For Great Britain and Ireland........ $8,000,000,000 For Germany.......................... 8,500,000,000 For France........................... 3,850,000,000 For Russia........................... 3,250,000,000 For Austria.......................... 1,500,000,000 For Italy............................ 2,675,000,000 And for all other European countries. 3,050,000,000

A total of nearly $31,000,000,000.

Hon. Samuel Smith, M. P., places the mortgages of England at something over $2,000,000,000, which is more than half the value of the landed property, and those of Scotland and Ireland (the latter one of the worst mortgaged countries in the world) make up the grand total given above.

A highly suggestive fact is that, as experience develops the enormous evils of the monometallic system, the number of conversions among prominent men to bimetallism steadily increases, and they become more outspoken and radical in their views.

At the Paris Monetary Conference of 1867, Mr. Mees, President of the Bank of the Netherlands, protested against a single gold standard and foretold literally what has followed. Two years later Baron Alphonse de Rothschild said: "As a sequel we should have to demonetize silver completely. That would be to destroy an enormous part of the world's capital; that would be ruin."

At the conference of 1878, Mr. Henry Hucks Gibbs, director and former governor of the Bank of England, was an advocate of the single gold standard; but a few years' experience so completely changed his views that he said: "Mr. Goschen and I were together in the conference in Paris; both of us were sturdy defenders of gold monometallism; but I have changed my mind. I do not say Mr. Goschen has changed his mind, but he has somewhat modified it."

In the Paris Conference of 1878, Mr. Goschen said: "If other states were to carry on a propaganda in favor of a gold standard and of the demonetization of silver, the Indian Government would be obliged to reconsider its position, and might be forced by events to take measures similar to those taken elsewhere. In that case the scramble to get rid of silver might provoke one of the gravest crises ever undergone by commerce."

As it is the fashion of our monometallists to sneer at the possibility of bimetallism, it may be well to quote here the report of the Royal Commission on gold and silver, made in 1888. This commission was composed of six monometallists and six bimetallists, but they assented unanimously to this proposition:

"SECTION 107. We think that in any conditions fairly to be contemplated in the future, so far as we can forecast them from the experience of the past, a stable ratio might be maintained if the nations we have alluded to (herein), the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Latin Union, were to accept and strictly adhere to bimetallism at the suggested ratio. We think that if in all these countries gold and silver could be freely coined and thus become exchangeable against commodities at the fixed ratio, the market value of silver as measured by gold would conform to that ratio and not vary to any considerable extent."

Mr. Leonard H. Courtney, one of the monometallist members of that commission who signed the report, has since become an avowed bimetallist, as have many other prominent Englishmen. Among them may be mentioned Professor Alfred Marshall and Professor Sidgwick, of Cambridge University; Professor Nicholson of Edinburgh; Professor H. S. Foxwell, Professor of Political Economy in University College, London; Professor E. G. Gonner, of Liverpool; Professor J. E. Munro, of Kings College, London; and many others.

Mr. Courtney says, in his article in the Nineteenth Century, April, 1893: "Is it true that gold is this stable standard? I was one of the six members of the Gold and Silver Commission who could not see their way clear to recommend bimetallism, and reported: 'When we look at the character and power of the fall in the price of commodities, we think that the sounder view is that the greater part of the fall has resulted from causes touching the commodities rather than from an appreciation or increase in value of the standard,' In the same paragraph we had said: 'We are far from denying that there may have been, and probably has been, some appreciation in gold, though we may hold it impossible to determine its extent.'" Now, then, he goes on to say: "Let me make a confession. I hesitated a little about this paragraph. I thought there was perhaps more in the suggestion of an appreciation of gold than my colleagues believed; but while I thus doubted it, I did not dissent. I am now satisfied that there has been an appreciation of gold greater than I anticipated when I signed the report, and I should not be able to concur in that same paragraph again. We have been passing through a period of an appreciation of gold, and no one can tell how long it will last. This is a serious matter. The pressure of all debts, private and public, has increased. The situation is serious. It is a dream to suppose that gold is stable in value. It is no more stable than silver. It has undergone a considerable appreciation in recent years, and industry and commerce have been more hampered by this movement than they would have been had silver been our standard. Every step taken towards the further demonetization of silver must tend to the enhancement of the value of gold. It is true that much inconvenience is involved in the use of gold as a standard in some countries, and of silver as a standard in others, with no link to check their divergent relations; but the advantage of having the same monetary standard throughout the world would be counterbalanced if we made gold that universal basis and tied all the fortunes of the nations to it."

The bimetallic sentiment in England is not confined to the mere theorist and doctrinaire or statesman, but is advocated by some of the ablest journalists in the kingdom. Thus, the Statist, which undoubtedly ranks in that country as the highest authority in financial and economic matters, is quite as pronounced as Mr. Balfour and others in its views upon the effect the demonetization of silver has had upon the value of gold. In its issue of July 1, 1893, it says: "The new policy is likely to intensify the appreciation of gold. One consequence of the further appreciation of gold will be to intensify the agricultural depression all over Europe. Most of the charges upon land having been fixed heretofore, they will weigh more and more heavily upon land-owners as gold rises in value. So, again, rents will become more onerous, and it will be found by and by that the settlement of the last few years was only provisional, and that a further reduction will become necessary. Also it is evident that the burden of debt, not only upon individuals, but upon governments, will be much increased. Everywhere the burden of debt will necessitate increased taxation, and so will weigh very heavily upon the general population."

Hon. Robert Giffen, the well-known chief of the statistical department of the Board of Trade, London, was long known as the most determined and uncompromising monometallist in England. In 1888 he read a paper before the Royal Statistical Society, in which he showed that gold had notably gone up in purchasing power; that the increase was continuous and likely to continue, and that this was the true explanation of the fall in the prices of commodities.

In a former paper read in 1879 he had predicted the rise in the purchasing power of gold, and in his paper of 1888 he said: "If the test of prophecy be the effect, there was never surely a better forecast. The fall of prices in such a general way as to amount to what is known as rise in purchasing power of gold is, I might almost say, universally admitted. Measured by any commodity or group of commodities usually taken as the measure for such a purpose, gold is undoubtedly possessed of more purchasing power than was the case fifteen or twenty years ago, and this high purchasing power has been continued over a long enough period to allow for all minor oscillations."

In 1871, when the discussion may be said to have begun, the French economist Ernest Seyd pointed out very plainly that the adoption of the gold standard by Europe and the United States would lead to the destruction of the monetary equilibrium hitherto existing, and then added this singular prophecy: "The strong doctrinarianism existing in England as regards the gold valuation is so blind that when the time of depression sets in the economic authorities of that country will refuse to listen to the cause here foreshadowed. Every possible attempt will be made to prove that the decline of commerce is due to all sorts of causes and irreconcilable matters. The workman and his strikes will be the first convenient target; then speculating and over-trading will have their turn; many other allegations will be made, totally irrelevant to the real issue, but satisfactory to the moralizing tendency of financial writers."

How literally has that been fulfilled in our sight. At this very time, the monometallists of the United States are pointing to all sorts of causes and irreconcilable matters to explain the ruinous fall in prices. They not only allege all the causes here assigned, but many more peculiar to this country; and, after the fashion of all who oppose any reform in the interests of producing labor, they particularly and even savagely deprecate agitation.

By the way, does not every clear-headed American, know that any system that cannot stand agitation is totally unfitted to this country? Agitation, investigation, public discussion in the papers and on the stump, are the very life-blood of our institutions. And if our finances were as they should be, the more thoroughly they were discussed, the more warmly would the system be approved, and the more would investigation be invited.

Hon. G. J. Goschen, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, pointed out as early as 1883 that the enormous increase in the demand for gold consequent upon the demonetization of silver was liable to create great evil. After elaborating this subject, and saying that the fall in prices had already produced serious evils, he added: "Some writers have appeared to show something approaching to irritation at the view of the situation that gold should have largely influenced prices. I scarcely know why, unless through the apprehension that the bimetallists may utilize the argument." A little later he said: "I must repeat that to my mind the connection between the additional demand for gold and the fall of prices seems as sound in principle as I believe it to be sustained by facts."

We might multiply at length quotations to show that opinion is unanimous in England, regardless of party, to the effect that there has been a great increase in the purchasing power of gold. As to the effect of this Mr. Giffen says: "The weight of all permanent burdens is increased.... Our people, in paying annuities or old debts, have to give sovereigns, which each represent a greater quantity of the results of human energy. The debtors pay more than they would otherwise, and the creditors receive more. It is a most serious matter to those who have debts to pay."

Mr. S. Dana Horton says that on the basis of prices "The national debt, regarded as a principal sum, has increased its weight upon the shoulders of the British taxpayer between 1875 and 1885 by nearly two hundred millions sterling, an amount nearly equal to the Franco-German war fine."

This gives us the explanation of the fact that the consols on which the interest was reduced by Mr. Goschen, when Chancellor of the Exchequer, to 2-3/4 per cent., are now selling at a much higher premium than formerly; the smaller amount of money paid in interest will purchase a very much larger amount of commodities than the former larger interest did.

The matter is very clearly set forth by Hon. Samuel Smith, M. P.: "If the question of protection is to be introduced into the discussion, then it will be found to tell more forcibly against our opponents. What do they seek for, but the protection of gold as against silver? They wish, as far as lies in their power, to boycott silver and throw the world upon gold alone, even though such a course should change the value of gold. In trying to boycott silver, they are giving protection to the wealthy capital class, just as truly as the old corn laws did to the landed owners of this country. The only difference is that the amounts involved are much larger and the protected class much richer and the confiscation of the fruits of the toiler much greater than under the old system of the corn laws. When the masses of this country awake as those of America have awakened to the magnitude of this question, they will brush away this idle talk that we are trying to restore protection." If Mr. Smith were in Congress instead of Parliament, what a howl there would be about him as an anarchist!

It being now the unanimous opinion of English statesmen and financiers that gold has greatly appreciated, and that such enhancement has already wrought great evil, the important question arises, Will this process continue? In the speech already quoted Mr. Giffen says: "I am bound to say that all the evidence seems to me to point to a continuance of the appreciation. It is impossible to suppose that the movement will not extend to other countries. All these facts point to a continued pressure on gold. The better probability seems to be, that the increase of the purchasing power of gold will continue from the present time."

The Right Hon. A. J. Balfour, now the head of the British Cabinet, in a speech delivered at Manchester, October 27, 1892, said: "We want two things of our currency. We require that it shall be a convenient medium of exchange between different countries, and we require of it that it shall be a fair and permanent record of obligation over long periods of time. In both of these great and fundamental requirements of a currency, our existing currency totally and lamentably fails." After showing that within fifteen years the money of Great Britain and Ireland had advanced in purchasing power no less than 30 or 35 per cent., he went on to say that of its further progressive appreciation "No living man can prophesy the limit." A little later he spoke of it as progressing "steadily, continuously, indefinitely," and closed his remarks on that subject in these words: "If you will show me a system which gives absolute permanence, I will take it in preference to any other. But of all conceivable systems of currency, that system is assuredly the worst which gives you a standard steadily, continuously, indefinitely appreciating, and which by that very fact throws a burden on every man of enterprise, upon every man who desires to promote the agricultural or industrial resources of the country, and benefits no human being whatever but the owner of fixed debts in gold."

In his work "The Bimetallic Question" Hon. Samuel Smith, M. P., presents as an evidence of the hardships due to the increasing purchasing power of money these facts: "The English landlords who borrowed L400,000,000 on their property, agreeing to pay, let us say, L16,000,000 a year, interest at 4 per cent., supposing that it represented one-quarter of their rents, now find, owing to the fall of prices, that it represents one-third, or even in some cases one-half of their rent.... The factory owner, the mine owner, the ship owner, who thought it safe twenty years ago to borrow half the value of his plant in order to find capital for his business, now finds that the mortgagee is the virtual owner. Nearly all the profits go to pay the mortgagee's claim, and in many cases he has foreclosed, and sold out the unhappy borrower, ruined through no fault of his own, but through the extraordinary sinking of prices. As a matter of fact, I believe that if all the fixed capital engaged in trade in England could be valued to-day at its real selling price, it would be found that it would do little more than pay the mortgages and debts upon it. Trade is very greatly and injuriously affected by sudden alterations in the standard of value, especially when the alteration is, as now, towards increased values. It arises in this way: trade is largely carried on by borrowed capital, or, in other words, by the use of credit in some shape or other; the vast banking deposits are mainly loaned to traders; a very great deal of the invested capital of this country is lent upon mortgages upon trading property such as ships, factories, and warehouses. A prudent trader usually considers it safe to draw considerably beyond his floating capital, and to borrow say 50 per cent. upon his plant or a fixed capital. Now, the constant decline in prices within the last few years has virtually swept away his own portion of the capital, and only left him enough to pay the loans and mortgages. For instance, a ship or a factory built at a cost of twenty thousand pounds, of which ten thousand were borrowed, is now worth only twelve thousand pounds, or 40 per cent. less; and so the mortgage represents five-sixths of the value instead of one-half, the trader's interest having sunk to two thousand pounds in place of ten thousand. Probably, if trade is unprofitable, he fails to pay the interest and the mortgage is foreclosed; the property is forced off at just sufficient to cover the loan and he is ruined. I have no doubt that this exactly describes the condition that confronts numbers of traders in this country and other countries having the gold standard. A great portion of the commercial capital of the country has passed into the hands of the mortgagees and bondholders who have neither toiled or spun. The discouragement this state of things produces is intense. After it has gone on for several years, a kind of hopelessness oppresses the commercial community, all enterprise comes to a standstill, many works are closed, labor is thrown out of employment, and great distress is felt, both among laborers and the humbler middle class. Indeed, it strikes higher than this; for multitudes of people who were once prosperous traders have now become dependent on charity. I know many such myself."

How fitly that describes the condition of the United States to-day. This was written some years ago, and so rapid has been the subsequent decline in prices that it almost equals the decline he had estimated for the fifteen or twenty years preceding the date of his work. And the end is not yet.

In his comments upon Mr. Goschen's address, delivered in 1883, wherein he pointed out that in the decade from 1873 to 1883 the annual supply of gold had decreased in a marked degree, and concurrent with this there was a marked increase in the demands upon the world's stock of gold, which was intensified by the substitution of gold for silver as money in Germany and other countries, Mr. Smith makes the following observations:

"The gold production, which for some years exceeded L30,000,000 annually, has fallen to 19,000,000 a year; and the best continental authorities, such as Soetbeer and Laveleye, reckon that more than half that amount is consumed in the arts.

"It may, therefore, be reckoned that since 1873 only some 10,000,000 on the average has been available for currency purposes.

"But Germany during that period has introduced a gold currency of 80,000,000, the United States has used up 100,000,000, and Italy has drawn some 20,000,000 for a similar purpose.

"So that 200,000,000 have been drawn for these special purposes, whereas the whole supply of new gold for coinage has not exceeded in that time 130,000,000.

"The balance must have been drawn out of existing stocks. Besides, a steady drain of some 4,000,000 a year has gone to India, further depleting stock in Europe.

"While trade and population constantly grow and demand more metallic currency, there is a steadily diminishing quantity to meet it. If you put the present product of gold at L19,000,000 a year, and the requirements of the arts at 8,000,000 or 10,000,000 a year, while the India demand is 4,000,000, there is only left 5,000,000 to 7,000,000 a year for Europe, America, and the British Colonies.

"It will seem to subsequent ages the height of folly that just at this period, when gold was running short, the chief states of the world decided to close their mints against silver, and cut off, so to speak, one-half the money supply of the world from performing its proper functions.

"Had the world continued to use both metals as freely as before, the painful crisis we have passed through would have been much mitigated. But by a suicidal policy silver was cut off at the very time it was most needed, and a double burden thrown upon gold just when it was able to bear only half of its former burden.

"As Bismarck has well said, two men were struggling to lie under a blanket only big enough for one."

Bad as have been the effects of monometallism in England, they have been far worse in Ireland; and dark as is the future of the former, it is light itself compared with that evidently in store for the latter. Those familiar with Irish affairs know that after a long agitation several acts have been passed to enlarge the rights of tenants and to secure them a larger share of what they produce. The Act of 1881 reduced the rents and fixed the amount to be paid at a specific annual sum in money for a long term of years; and the subsequent Ashbourne Act (so called from Lord Ashbourne, who introduced it) gave tenants a chance to buy and pay for lands in fixed yearly installments for forty-nine years. The intent was to create a peasant ownership somewhat like that of France. It was the end of a long fight, and was supposed to be a great victory and the inauguration of a very great reform.

Scarcely, however, was the great victory won and the great reform inaugurated when it became evident that, owing to the demonetization of silver and increased purchasing power of gold, the tenants were, in reality, bound to much heavier payments than before. Whatever may have been the intent, the tenant, who bound himself to pay a fixed annual sum as rent for a long term of years, found himself bound to deliver a much larger share of produce; and the purchaser under the Ashbourne Act found that what looked so easy in figures soon became impossible in fact, as the prices of his produce fell so rapidly that each successive payment became more oppressive until it finally became impossible. Thus it looks now as if by the appreciation of gold all that was gained for the tenant is more than lost, and that in the future his condition may be worse than in the worst days of rack-renting. In recent years this has become plain to those who have the good of Ireland at heart; they have taken the alarm, and are outspoken on the threatening evils. Among these is the Most Reverend Dr. Walsh, Archbishop of Dublin. In a recent interview he says, referring to the rise in the value of gold:

"All this is indisputable; it is now fully in the public view; yet not even an attempt is being made in Parliament, or even out of it, to bring about an equitable readjustment of the conditions which are proving so disastrous in other nations, conditions too that are imposed under the provisions of statutes enacted as measures of protection for the tenants. The Irish Land Acts of 1881, 1885, and 1891 have, nevertheless—as a result of the increased and increasing value of our present unbalanced and consequently untrustworthy monetary standard of value—become fruitful sources of difficulty, and may very soon become fruitful sources of disaster, to those for whose benefit they were intended."

Again, referring to the importance of some remedy, possibly that which bimetallism might provide, he says:

"The adoption of bimetallism or of some equivalent remedy, if there be any equivalent remedy, is, I am convinced, a matter of imperative necessity; that is, if the agricultural tenants of Ireland—and I do not limit this to Ireland—are to be saved from otherwise irretrievable ruin. If things go on as they are, even the excellent land purchase scheme, which is associated with the name of Lord Ashbourne, may become, before many years are over, a source of widespread disaster to the tenants who have purchased under it."

Again, in view of the steady and dangerous increase in the burdens of the obligations entered into under either of the acts referred to, by reason of the continued enhancement in the price of gold, he says:

"The bimetallists may be right or they may be wrong; but, at all events, if they are right, then it is noticeably plain that the Irish tenants who have the misfortune to have their rents fixed for terms of ten or fifteen years under the Act of 1881, and in much the same way the Irish tenant purchasers who have the misfortune to have found themselves saddled with the obligation of making annual payments fixed for forty-nine years, are simply sliding down an inclined plane with bankruptcy awaiting them at the bottom of it."

And again:

"The point, as I have already stated it, is that so long as our monetary system remains what it is, every one who is placed under an obligation to make yearly payments of a fixed amount of money is thereby placed under a burden which is growing heavier from year to year."

In discussing the question of variability in the purchasing power of gold, he says:

"The reason of the liability to fluctuation in the purchasing power of the sovereign is plain: When gold rises in value a larger quantity of any other commodity, say of corn, of meat, of butter, or of cloth, will have to be given in exchange for any given quantity of gold, such, for example, as the quantity contained in a sovereign. On the other hand, when gold falls in value a smaller quantity of any other commodity, say of corn, of meat, of butter, or of cloth, will suffice to obtain in exchange any given quantity of gold, such as that which is contained in the sovereign. It is an obvious inference that our gold coinage, however useful as a medium of exchange, does not furnish us with a standard of value fixed and unalterable. It does not furnish us, for example, with such a standard as the yard is of length or as the pound troy is of weight. The popular notion that the pound sterling constitutes a fixed standard of value is merely a popular delusion. The sole foundation for that delusion manifestly is that in these countries the values of all commodities are commonly stated in terms of a pound sterling; in other words, in pounds, shillings, and pence; a shilling being a twentieth part of the pound, and a penny the twelfth part of that again.

"The natural result of this method of enhancing the value of commodities other than gold is that when prices rise or fall the impression is conveyed to a superficial observer that it is the value of other things that changes, the value of the sovereign remaining fixed."

Under this head he says again:

"The price of things estimated in gold—their gold price—may change, whilst their price estimated in silver—their silver price—remains unaltered. This will occur if the value or purchasing power of gold goes up or down, while the value or purchasing power of silver remains unaltered. Suppose, for instance, that gold is in any way scarce in relation to the demands upon it. Then, in any country where gold is the standard metal of the currency, those who wish to obtain, a certain quantity of gold, whether in coin or in bullion, will have to give a larger quantity of other commodities in exchange for it; or, to put the matter in another light, those who have only a definite commodity to part with will receive less gold in return for that; in other words, there is a fall in gold prices. Suppose, on the contrary, that gold is abundant in relation to the demands upon it, then those who wish to obtain a certain quantity of gold, whether in currency or in bullion, will not have to give so large a quantity of other commodities to obtain the quantity of gold they require; or, to put the matter as before in another light, those who have a definite quantity of other commodities to dispose of will obtain more gold in return for them; in other words, there is a rise in gold prices. If in either case there is no change in the value of silver, then the price of commodities stated in silver, that is, their silver price, will remain unchanged."

In referring to the very prevalent notion, especially among the uneducated classes, that the gold unit of measure of value does not vary, he says:

"As for the tenant purchaser, he probably thinks that after the extra pressure of the first few years he may look forward to easy times for the rest of his life. He little knows what is before him. If things go on as they are, it will be harder for him, ten or fifteen years hence, to pay forty pounds a year than it would be to pay fifty pounds a year now; but of all this he knows nothing—how could he? His only idea is that a pound is always a pound, and a sovereign is always a sovereign; so, in the belief that the yearly payment, when it is reduced to forty pounds, will be well within his reach, he puts his head into the halter."



THE "DUMP" OF SILVER.

All the world will dump its silver on us if we adopt free coinage, says the monometallist. How much, and where will it come from? asks the bimetallist. Oh, the world has billions of it ready for us, is the vague general reply; but when we ask for a bill of particulars we get instead a fine confusion of prophecy.

One answers that it will come from Spanish America. But we have already shown that all nations from the Rio Grande to Cape Horn have but $100,000,000 for their 60,000,000 people. The South Americans have but 83 cents apiece. The Mexicans have $4.54. The Central Americans have $2.14. And the South Americans have $550,000,000 in paper money, to bring which to par and maintain it there will require at least $300,000,000 more in silver than they now have. No "dump" from there.

From France, says another. Well, France has $487,000,000 in silver coin, and some bullion; only $12.94 per capita in coin, and valued at 15-1/2 to 1 of gold. At her ratio an ounce is worth $1.3336; at ours $1.2929. Will she rob herself of coin, when she has none too much for business, and sell it to us at a loss of 4 cents on the dollar and freight charges? Germany has but $215,000,000 in silver coin, less than half as much as France, though having 13,000,000 more people, and Great Britain has but half as much as Germany. All the other Europeans together have much less than these three nations, and used at a higher valuation than ours. How then can they "dump" any on us?

From India, say a few. Well, India has a deal of silver—$950,000,000, according to our Director of the Mint. But she has 296,000,000 people, so it is but $3.21 apiece. And the best evidence that she has not too much is found in the fact that she is importing more. China has but $2.08 per capita; Japan has but $4, and is importing heavily; Australia but $1.49, and the black and brown races still less. In short, all the world outside of the United States has but $3,444,900,000 in silver coin, or $2.46 per capita. It is a plain case that there will be no "dump" from the coined silver.

But the bullion, the old silver, the scrap heap, will they not ship that to us by billions? Well, how much is there, and where is it? Will the nobility and gentry of Europe melt down their family plate, the plain people everywhere their silver ornaments, and the Hindoos their household gods, to send us the silver? If so, why did they not do it when a cup, a watch, or a silver god would buy twice as much gold as now? But the supposition is absurd. The manufactured articles are worth very much more than the metal in them, to say nothing of the sentimental value. A prize silver cup, for instance, won in a great race or regatta, could not be bought for ten times its weight in gold. There remain, then, only the scrap heap and the stored bullion, and nobody has been able to locate any great mass of it. Is it reasonable to suppose that moneyed men have been storing away silver for years, making no profit on it and losing the interest, and doing it in the face of a falling market? No, the timid may be reassured; there will be no "dump."

Another class threaten us that a great mass of securities will be "unloaded on us." Well, Great Britain, Germany, and Holland, all gold countries, are the nations which hold practically all the American stock and bonds held abroad. Of course they did not invest expecting to be paid principal and interest in coin, for they know that there is not enough in this country to pay it; it is in commodities that we must pay. So far as these securities are bad, as we are sorry to say very many are, foreigners having been badly "plucked" by some of our operators, they will be returned anyhow. In fact, they are coming back now. As to those which are good, being held against property capable of earning a steady and reliable income, they will not be returned. Held in gold countries, the interest and dividends on them will be paid in our products measured in the currency of those countries, no matter what our monetary system may be.

But suppose the "prophets" of evil are correct to this extent that silver and securities will be "dumped" on us to the amount of a billion or two. Will the foreigners give us all these good things? Assuredly not. They must all be paid for; and with what? Manifestly with agricultural products, for there is little or nothing else. The farmer must furnish the stuff, and he is ready and willing to do it—yes, anxious. At least three-fourths of our exports are agricultural, and of the new exports probably seven-eighths would be. We find, moreover, that in 1891 55,131,948 bushels of wheat exported brought us $51,420,272, and in 1892, 157,280,351 bushels brought us $161,399,132, while in 1894 the 88,415,230 bushels exported brought us only $59,407,041, and in 1895, 76,102,704 bushels brought us but $43,805,663. Similarly it may be shown that our largest cotton exports have brought us the least money; but this is an old story. It goes without saying, that to the farmer there are three great factors in the present situation: a ruinously low price for his products, a tremendous surplus left over from last year, and an immense crop for this year now adding to the surplus, with no possible home consumption to give an adequate outlet. Suppose then the "dump" should come and the farm produce go—what then?

First of all there must come as a result a rise in prices. Farmers receiving much more money would immediately pay their most pressing debts; the release of idle money would break the deadlock which now paralyzes trade, and from the farmer the money would at once be poured into the channels of rural business. The consumptive demands would be tremendous because of the long and forced abstinence, and the farmer would supply himself with those things he has so long wanted. The railroads would have a vastly increased business, and as a result there would be a greatly increased demand for labor. Instead of the ruinous "cut in rates" which we read of almost every day, made in order to stimulate the movement of crops, we should soon hear of vastly increased shipments at profitable rates; these of course would soon be followed by increased net earnings, which would in time create increased values of securities, which again would check foreign sales and stimulate purchases. There would be a boom in stocks to dispel the gloom of Wall Street, and we should do the money-mongers good in spite of themselves.

Is this all supposition? Well, we are proceeding upon the theory of the monometallists, that a billion dollars' worth of silver and securities would be shipped here. We are showing what must inevitably result if their predictions should hold good—more money for the farmers, more business for the merchants, more transportation for the railroads, and more business for their correlated industries; and, as a result, more work, abundant work, for those now idle. And this last would be the greatest blessing of all. The benefit would be to the farmer, the handlers of grain and all who serve them, to the retail tradesmen, the small manufacturers, all the country artisans immediately dependent upon the farmer, and all those who supply all of these classes. In short, there would be a general quickening of all branches of production and trade as a certain result of the transfer of foreign silver and securities for our agricultural surplus. Is there anything in all this to alarm Americans?



ASIA'S DEMAND FOR THE PRECIOUS METALS.

Among the many errors which distort men's opinions on the so-called "silver question" is the belief that the gold supply of the present and near future need be considered merely as it may affect Europe and America. Asia and Africa are in most men's minds entirely excluded from the calculations. The popular belief in the United States may be briefly stated thus: Asia is and is long to be the land of stagnation. Asiatics are unprogressive and will remain so. In contact with the higher civilization of Europe the yellow and brown races are likely to fade away as did the Maori and the American Indian; or if they continue to increase, their trade and government will be conducted chiefly by Europeans.

One finds this belief expressed in many standard works. "The helpless apathy of Asiatics" is a favorite phrase of Macaulay. "Man is but a weed in those vast regions," says DeQuincey. "In Asia there are no questions, only affirmations," says another philosopher. And no amount of experience seems to shake the popular faith in this notion that what Asia was she is always to be. And yet enough has occurred within the memory of men still middle-aged to dissipate it. Only a few years ago Americans looked upon Russia as an inert mass, semi-barbarous in large part; and when Kennan pictured the horrors of Siberia most readers thought the condition only such as might be expected from such a government and such people as they believed the Russians to be. But Russia is to-day one of the world's greatest powers, with 120,000,000 of people, building the two longest railways in the world, developing the Siberian and Transcaspian region with a rapidity only exceeded in our own far West, and drawing gold from this country and western Europe at a rate that threatens the stability of our financial system.

It is only forty-one years since our Commodore Perry astonished the world by securing admission to Japan and proving to the western people that it was at least worthy of their notice, yet that empire has undergone a most beneficent revolution in which the Daimios or local lords consented to a self-sacrifice without a parallel in history, has been the victor in a great war, has adopted the best features of the western civilization while sacrificing none of its own, and is advancing in material development with a rapidity rarely equalled and perhaps never excelled. Five years ago the first complete census showed thirty-six cotton factories with 377,970 spindles; three years later the number of factories had doubled and that of the spindles had much more than quadrupled, and there is every indication that next year's tabulation will show a still more rapid increase. In 1894 there were 17,000 people employed in that industry.

Hon. Robert P. Porter, who has recently returned from Japan, after making a thorough study of her progress and resources, tells us that while her export of textiles of all kinds in 1885 was worth but $511,990, they were in 1895 worth $22,177,626, the estimate of both years in silver dollars. Similarly in the same years the exports of raw silks increased from $14,473,396 to $50,928,440, of grain and provisions from $4,514,843 to $12,723,771, of matches from $60,565 to $4,672,861, of porcelain, curios, and sundries from $2,786,876 to $11,624,701, and several other articles in the like proportion, while the commerce for 1895 showed an increase of $30,000,000 over 1894, reaching a total of exports and imports of $296,000,000, or about $7.50 per capita.

The government granted 2,250,000 yen as a bounty to the first iron works, begun in 1892, and already the products of those iron works in hand-made articles are underselling American products on our Pacific coast. In five years, prior to those covered by Mr. Porter's figures above, Japan's exports rose from 34,800,000 to 68,400,000 yen, and her imports from 27,000,000 yen to 64,000,000 yen. Nor does there appear any reason to doubt the confident statement of British experts that development for the coming years will go on much more rapidly. Politics in the empire already turns upon fiscal and economic questions; of two bills urged in the Imperial Parliament by the progressists, one decrees the nationalization of all railways not yet owned by the state, and the other asks for an appropriation of 50,000,000 yen for the building of a new railroad. While this is going through the press it is announced that Japan has established two new steamship lines, one running from Yokohama to our own Pacific coast, and the other from Yokohama to Marseilles, stopping at Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Columbo.

The western mind has long looked upon China as given over to hopeless inertia and stagnation, but China has awakened at last. In one year the importation of illuminating oil rose 50 per cent., of window glass 58 per cent., of matches 23 per cent., and needles 20 per cent. In six years the tonnage of vessels discharging in Chinese ports rose by one-third. While these lines are going through the press Li Hung Chang is in Europe negotiating for a loan of 400,000,000 francs to be expended in internal improvements, and he gives the weight of his very high authority to the statement that China is no longer opposed to the introduction of railways.

Consul-General Jernigan reports to the Department of State that the prospectus of a new industry is now before the public at his station, Shanghai. It is called the Shanghai Oil Mill Company, and purposes to manufacture oil from cotton seed. It is the logical result of the cotton mills at Shanghai, and the consequent stimulus given to the cultivation of cotton in China. Since 1890 there have been forty-five new manufacturing plants established in Shanghai. They are all in successful operation, especially the cotton factories, in which large capital is invested. He adds:

"The area suitable for cultivation of cotton in China is almost as limitless as the supply of labor, and labor being very cheap, there can be no doubt that China will soon be one of the great cotton-producing countries of the world, and that this product, produced and manufactured in China, will command serious consideration in all calculations with reference to the cotton market. It will not be safe to discount the cotton of China because it now grades low, for it is certain to improve. At present it is estimated there are 3,000,000 tons of cotton seed, equal to 90,000,000 gallons of oil, now yearly lost to commerce which would find a ready market. The company will start with a capital of 250,000 Mexican dollars. One company has already ordered its machinery from the United States."

The population of the Chinese Empire is estimated at 400,000,000, but Li Hung Chang declares, and experienced western observers confirm it, that the country with modern improvements could sustain more than twice its present population in a very high state of comfort.

Of all the popular errors, however, the greatest is that of regarding India as an overpopulated, stagnant, and unprogressive land. Suffice it to say here that the population has trebled under British rule, and that the country is abundantly able to sustain in great comfort twice its present numbers by agriculture alone; that the extension of the railway system has recently been rapid, and along with this has gone on a growth of manufactures that is simply amazing. Only recently Burmah borrowed in London $15,000,000 for railway construction, a sum that was subscribed in that market five times over. In these vast fertile regions, which in comparison with what they are destined to be might be called new and undeveloped, live 290,000,000 of people, who are increasing at the rate of something like 2,000,000 per year. And these are but a few of the facts I might present to show that the early development of the Orient is the great fact America must take into account, and that it is almost a certainty that the world's greatest possible production of gold in the future may be absorbed in the East, leaving the West to struggle with an increasing scarcity. Indeed, Prof. Eduard Suess, the great German authority, after giving reasons for his belief that the larger part of the gold product is used in the arts, and that all of it will soon be, points out that Asia will soon, in all probability, absorb almost the entire silver product, and that we shall then have a "crisis" indeed.

In my travels through India and the Orient generally I took notice of her enormous capacity to export wheat. As a result, I predicted that the export, then but fairly begun, would soon menace our supremacy in the British market. I began at the same time to study the social and industrial condition of Russia, and was soon satisfied that she was in the dawn of a great day. I predicted the eastern extension of her enterprises, and increased political influence, especially with China, and the consequent absorption of western gold and capital generally. It appears from the latest summary of the United States Bureau of Statistics that Russia had, on the first of January, 1892, $324,828,300 in gold in her banks, and on the last of last May $424,193,700. If she carries out her present policy, this is less than half of the amount she will require. On a strictly gold basis we must allow her at least $10 per capita, which would make for the empire $1,200,000,000. But if we greatly reduce the per capita, in view of the undeveloped condition of her subjects, the amount still to be required will be enormous. During the same four years and five months the Bank of France has increased its holdings of gold from $260,888,299 to $391,519,658; the Austrian-Hungarian Bank from $26,634,400 to $133,006,312, and the Bank of England from $109,342,800 to $232,791,709, while the Banks of Germany, Belgium, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands have also increased their holdings some $30,000,000. Thus we see that in these few years the leading nations have added nearly $500,000,000 to their previous hoards of gold, which shows too plainly that they are looking forward to a gold famine. How much more will Asia demand? In my opinion, India, notwithstanding British rule and influence there, has developed less rapidly than China will when she once comes into as intimate contact with western nations as has India, for the rigid system of caste which prevails in India and which does not exist in China has been and will be the cause of greater immobility. It is not possible to say how long it will operate as an impediment to a high industrial development, but from the lessons taught in other countries where race and religion create similar castes, we may believe in its long continuance. I take pleasure at this point in referring to the late able work of Prof. Charles H. Pierson, of Oxford, who passed twenty years in the Orient. In his "National Life and Character" he points out that China in 1844 had doubled her population in eighty years, and there since has been a great increase; that Russia has doubled since 1849, very largely by natural increase, the Russian peasant being the most prolific of human beings; and the Hindoos, who had doubled in eighty years, have recently gained 20,000,000 in ten years.

Professor Pierson also points out the great error of assuming that the black and yellow races will fade away before the white, and shows it to be far more likely that with the increased security afforded by British and Russian rule they will increase so rapidly as to industrially force the white race back to the higher latitudes of the north temperate zone. Industrial commonwealths will not dispense with great armies—at least not for a long time—but China has passed the militant age, and reached the purely industrial. It may be said that work is a pleasure to the Chinese, as active sports are to Western people. Continuous toil is looked upon as a matter of course. To them it does not seem a hardship that men should work. As a measure of the possibilities of the Orient, consider what has been done in the western world within half a century, where the population is much less than one-half of that of the far East. Over four hundred thousand miles of railroad have been constructed, together with a vast, almost incalculable system of telegraphs, to say nothing of the great cities and common roads, or the enormous mass of productive machinery, which has even outrun the increase of population.

In round numbers, some forty thousand millions in capital have been absorbed in railroads alone. Add the amount absorbed in telegraphs, telephones, steamships, and electric plants, and a thousand and one appliances of civilization, and the total is beyond comprehension. And all these things have yet to be created and adopted in the Oriental countries. How rapidly the development may go on there, and what an enormous mass of capital will be absorbed, is clearly indicated by what has been done in a very few recent years. And so far we have left Africa entirely out of the account, a country with a vast population and richly dowered with natural resources and with a capacity for rapid development.

Possibly the Orientals will not suddenly become progressive to the degree here anticipated, though Russia's eastern march has fairly rivalled our western march; and it must be borne in mind that to develop the appliances of western civilization we had all the experiments to make, all the crude preliminary work to do in creating the system, which the Orient will receive from us in its present perfected form, and be able to go on without any mistakes, and thus enable them to adopt within a very brief time that which we gave the labors of several generations to discover, develop, and apply.

How enormous, then, will be their absorption of western capital and gold.

Is it still maintained that the Orientals lack the capacity for such development? Then look at their achievements in every country to which they have emigrated, and especially in this. Their progress here in the industrial arts, even while they were but a handful, was so rapid that the government was called on to restrict them. Even now the papers contain alarming statements to the effect that Japan is invading our markets with those specialties in the making of which we, but a little while ago, considered ourselves superior to all the rest of the world. And no tariff is high enough to keep them out. It is observed by all travellers in China and other Oriental countries that there exists in as great a degree as in the West a desire for indulgence in those things classed as mere luxuries which, in all nations, absorb so great a share of its total wealth. Every one who travels through the eastern countries marvels at the extraordinary richness and delicacy of those things adopted by them for ornamentation, luxury, and convenience. And they are of such a character as, far more than in the western world, involves the consumption of the precious metals. Along with the national desire to adopt that which is useful and ornamental, a highly mimetic nature prompts them to seize upon and adapt with singular readiness that which is brought to their notice as being useful and constituting a salient feature of western civilization.

To sum it all up, we have in Asia somewhere near 800,000,000 of people, who are certainly increasing by 10,000,000 a year, probably many more, and these people pressed on by Russia on the north and west, by Great Britain and France on the south, as well as by the wonderful energy of the Japanese on the east. How much gold will all these people absorb in the future? And it should not be forgotten that not only is the present population to be supplied, but an increase of population is to be allowed for, which at ten dollars per capita would alone absorb the entire annual gold production above the amount used in the arts. If any one thinks this forecast fanciful, I only ask him to consider what has been done in the last thirty years, and then make his estimate. For what the possible absorption of the precious metals by the Asiatic people may be, we need only to refer to what has been done by India. By reason of the development of her industries and resources caused by her intercourse with western nations she has imported in net excess of exports, from the years 1835 to 1893, $750,000,000 of gold and $1,750,000,000 of silver, or about one-seventh of the entire world's output of gold and about one-half of the world's output of silver during that time. Professor Shaw is authority for the statement that her demand for the precious metals is yet unabated and great as ever. When we remember that the average population of India during this time was only about 200,000,000, and that there are about three times as many people yet in Asia who have even greater latent powers to absorb the precious metals, one can form some feeble estimate of what an exhaustive drain upon the gold and silver supply of the world will ensue when these nations awaken and develop their resources and energies through the stimulating influences of western ideas and example.

Having considered the possible momentous absorption of the precious metals by the Asiatics, it may be well to consider what Europe itself is likely soon to do in the same line. England, France, and Germany are the three most substantial and commercial nations of Europe, and their experience may be taken as an index. We find that these three use on an average $16.40 per capita of gold. To give the same to the rest of Europe, including Russia and Turkey, will require, in addition to their present stock, $3,780,000,000 in gold, or nearly as much as the entire world's present stock of gold coin.

If the example of France and the Netherlands—two of the soundest and most conservative nations in the world—be similarly taken as an index to the probable use of silver, it appears that these two nations average $12.50 per capita. To supply the rest of Europe to the same extent will require an addition of $3,563,000,000 to her present stock of silver, or about three-fourths as much as the present coined silver of the world. In view of these facts, is not the real question, not whether there is gold enough, but whether there is both gold and silver enough for the future monetary requirements of the world? Does it not seem that the nations are soon to be confronted with this dilemma: that the product of the precious metals must be greatly increased—and is that possible?—or that for the want of gold and silver there must be a serious check to the progress of civilization?

THE END