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Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout's large letter, dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in truth, it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:-
Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, and Rome, viz.:-
Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of the said houses, one with another, the number of families will be 81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, the utmost number of people in Paris, according to that opinion, will be 487,680.
The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the L'Hotel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the former, the net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty (which is more advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout's opinion of one to die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 more than by Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned account 491,430.
And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.
The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people there will be 696,360.
The number of houses at London appears by the register to be 105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as the least number of double families that can be supposed in London, the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 695,076.
The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718.
So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is 488,055. Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout's utmost demands 80,000. Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter 125,000. Total 693,055.
So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome by 2,663.
Memorandum.—That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one- fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris and Rouen put together, by 114,284.
Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city of France contains.
THE SECOND ESSAY.
As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, viz.:-
1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than the best of Paris.
2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than at London.
3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage.
4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London is the most considerable of all Europe.
5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater than that at Paris and Rouen.
6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and are worth 140,000 pounds sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres, besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere.
7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one- fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one- twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater than at London.
8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a wholesome sulphurous bitumen.
9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.
10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel.
11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple to that of England) be lodged there.
12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds when it next appeareth.
13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, or as twenty-three to thirteen.
14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen to twenty-three.
15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Monsieur Chivreau reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about 700,000. Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen square miles, whereas the built ground at London is about nine square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions agree with each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries.
THE THIRD ESSAY.
Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz. -
I know but three ways of finding the same.
1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.
2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion of those that live, to those that die.
3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential years, in proportion to those that escape.
The First Way.
To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. -
1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D. 1686.
2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400.
3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and 6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.
Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within the bills of mortality to be 105,315.
Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures.
As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's observation in page —- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London's families there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.
To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.
The Second Way.
I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 souls.
Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say -
1. That Grant in the —- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same proportion.
2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably lived above 30 years each.
3. Grant, page —- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30.
4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.
The Third Way.
It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two computations above mentioned.
Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in its place.
Memorandum. That two or three hundred new houses would make a contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and government.
THE FOURTH ESSAY.
Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of Christendom undernamed, viz.:-
1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people in that city to be at a medium 695,718.
2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., 81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or families.
3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.
4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks.
5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all 125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur Auzout.
6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.
7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give 69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.
8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout's fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people in it.
Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.
All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned.
London 696,000 Paris 488,000 Amsterdam 187,000 Venice 134,000 Rome 125,000 Dublin 69,000 Bristol 48,000 Rouen 66,000
Observations on the said Eight Cities.
1. That the people of Paris being 488,000 Rome 125,000 Rouen 66,000 do make in all but 679,000
or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.
2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums—viz., of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000—do make 744,000, or more than
In Paris 488,000 Amsterdam 187,090 Rouen 66,000 Being in all 741,000
3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent
To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. Rouen 66,000 Lyons 100,000 Toulouse 90,000 In all 744,000
If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now at work upon that matter.
4. That the King of England's three cities, viz.
London 696,000 { Paris 488,000 Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000 Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000 In all 813,000 Being but 809,000
5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 to 4.
Amsterdam 187,000 } Venice 134,000 } 387,000 Rouen 66,000 } 2 774,000 London 696,000
6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium.
When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.
THE FIFTH ESSAY.
Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.
Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath—as we have elsewhere noted— 187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000—in all, the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the cities and market-towns.
Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads in each—the medium between MM. Auzout's and Grant's reckonings—the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four—the medium between thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned—the total of the people would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number of Holland.
Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the world, I never found that in any country—not in China itself— there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (alias North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the same to be but 85,000.
The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith -
1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as follows, viz.:-
1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000.
2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.
I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England's subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this objector's own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector's doctrine, if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England's territories should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.
To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that they would prove -
1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.
2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James the Second came to the empire thereof.
OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.
Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and forming part of "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade." Published in 1699.
The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any other person.
With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.
He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.
From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase -
That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ's time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ's birth about 400,000.
That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat above 2,000,000.
That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.
That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.
That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:-
Anno Number of Increase every Domini. people. hundred years. 1300 2,800,000 1400 3,300,000 440,000. 1500 3,840,000 540,000. 1600 4,620,000 780,000. 1700 5,500,000 880,000. 1800 6,420,000 920,000. 1900 7,350,000 930,000. 2000 8,280,000 930,000. 2100 9,205,000 925,000. 2200 10,115,000 910,000. 2300 11,000,000 885,000.
Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls per annum.
But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls. And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls.
It is to be noted— Per ann.
1. That the allowance for plagues and great mortalities may come to at a medium 4,000 2. Foreign or civil wars at a medium 3,500 3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum. about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500 the death of about 4. The plantations (over and above the accession of foreigners) 1,000 may carry away Whereby the net annual increase may be but 9,000 souls.
That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements.
The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls. The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by procreation 2,000 souls. But London and the bills of mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls.
So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom's net increase.
Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors' returns thereupon, and by the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and burials are according to the following scheme
Vide Scheme A.
Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 children.
Whereby it follows -
1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great towns are more prolific than the country.
2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as those in the country, London would increase in people much faster pro rata than the country.
3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children than the country marriages seem to be -
(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.
(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.
(3) From a greater intentness on business.
(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.
(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.
(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country.
He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:-
SCHEMA A
People Annual Marriages Producing
children In all each
530,000 London and bills of mortality 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 870,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 4,100,000 The villages and hamlets 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 4.64
Annual Births Annual Burials In all In all London and bills of mortality 1 in 26.5 20,000 1 in 24.1 22,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 28.5 30,600 1 in 30.4 28,600 The villages and hamlets 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 119,400 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 170,000
Vide Scheme B.
So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.
SCHEME B.
Males Females Males Females Both In London and 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 bills of mortality In the other cities 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 and market-towns In the villages and 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 hamlets 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000
That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to bear these proportions.
People. Males. Females. Husbands and wives 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 at above, 34.5% Widowers at above 1.5% 90,000 90,000 Widows at about 4.5% 240,000 240,000 Children at above 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 Servants at about 10.5% 560,000 260,000 300,000 Sojourners and single persons 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000
And that the different proportions in each of the said articles between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better appear, he has formed the following scheme:-
London and Bills The other Cities The Villages and of Mortality. and great Towns. Hamlets. Souls. Souls. Souls. Husbands and Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1.5% 61,500 Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4.5% 184,500 Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000
SCHEME B (Continued)
He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several ages of the people may be as follows:
In all Males Females Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 81,500 Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 406,700 Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 757,100 Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 1,682,000 Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 1,248,000 Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 330,000 Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 Total of the people 5,500,000
That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof those under twenty-five years are 25.5 per cent., and those above twenty-five years are 2.5 per cent.
That the maidens are about 28.5 per cent. of the whole.
Whereof those under 25 years are 26.5 per cent.
And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.
That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with another, 27 years and a half.
That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.
That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, are as follows, viz.:-
Vide Scheme C.
Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for the year 1688.
SCHEME C
The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17.25% makes 742 years. The wives 40 17.25% 690 The widowers 56 1.5% 84 The widows 60 4.5% 270 The children 12 45% 540 The servants 27 10.5% 284 The sojourners 35 4% 140 At a medium 27.5 100 2,750
Vide Scheme D.
Mr. King's modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies.
What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were A.D. 1300 either less or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.
Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though the text deserves much a better comment.
SCHEME D.—A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR 1688 Number of Ranks, Degrees and Heads per Families. Qualifications Family. 160 Temporal Lords 40 26 Spiritual Lords 20 800 Baronets 16 600 Knights 13 3,000 Esquires 10 12,000 Gentlemen 8 5,000 Persons in greater offices and places 8 5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places 6 2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea 8 8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea 6 10,000 Persons in the law 7 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 40,000 Freeholders of the better sort 7 120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort 5.5 150,000 Farmers 5 15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences 5 50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen 4.5 60,000 Artisans and handicrafts 4 5,000 Naval officers 4 4,000 Military officers 4 500,586 5.33 50,000 Common seamen 3 364,000 Labouring people and out-servants 3.5 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3.25 35,000 Common soldiers 2 849,000 Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, beggars, &c. 3.25 500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 5.33 849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 3.25 1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13
[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page. It has been split down the middle—DP.]
Number Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly of Income Income Income Expense Increase Incr. Persons per. in per. per per. in Family general Hd. Hd. Hd. General P. s. P. P. s. P. s. d. P.s. d. P. 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 l1 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 Decrease.Decrease. 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 So the General Account is 2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200
The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their increase or decrease must be carefully observed by any government that designs to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by good conduct and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by war, or any other accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as possible, for it is a maim in the body politic affecting all its parts.
Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, as liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly power limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from a small beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able to send out an army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the commonwealth, in that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before Hannibal came thither, they were grown so numerous, as that their troops consisted of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their allies were comprehended in this number, but the ordinary people fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome and Campania, amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse.
Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England populous and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and our legal constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well called free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is to this good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling of the people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last past. And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of others, should bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and to give up our ancient rights, we shall find our numbers diminish visibly and fast. For liberty encourages procreation, and not only keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites strangers to come and live under the shelter of our laws.
The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge their city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations into their commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. For the strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to have so great a vote in the councils, that the whole Government began to totter, and decline from its old to its new inhabitants, which Fabius the censor observing, he applied a remedy in time by reducing all the new citizens into four tribes, that being contracted into so narrow a space, they might not have so malignant an influence upon the city.
An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase our numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in our people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very warmly contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it carries also its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less influence by this expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were made, that no heads of families hereafter to be naturalised for the first generation, should have votes in any of our elections. But as the case stands, it seems against the nature of right government that strangers (who may be spies, and who may have an interest opposite to that of England, and who at best ever join in one link of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be suffered to intermeddle in that important business of sending members to Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by birth and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations as the natives.
And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the strangers into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of a whole empire were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, yet the same policy may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot influence elections here by being dispersed about in the several counties of the kingdom, where they can never come to have any considerable strength. But some time or other they may endanger the government by being suffered to remain, such vast numbers of them here in London where they inhabit altogether, at least 30,000 persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying with the English, or learning our language, by which means for several years to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public.
An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength and numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, artificers, merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a nation more people than their troops can well consist of: for if it has been ever seen that men abound most where there is most freedom (China excepted, whose climate excels all others, and where the exercise of the tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow that people will in time desert those countries whose best flower is their liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. That foreign soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples from all countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because it is eminent above all the rest.
The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and foreign troops; and when the peace was made between them and the Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they brought their army home to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their General, had the charge of embarking, who did order all his part with great dexterity and wisdom. But the State of Carthage wanting money to clear arrears, and satisfy the troops, was forced to keep them up longer than was designed. The army consisted of Gauls, Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. At first they were insolent in their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to remove to Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay. There they grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate wretches, for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed to them from the commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all the Africans, their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short time to be 70,000 strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and Hamilcar Barcas. During these transactions, the mercenaries that were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their commander and all the Carthaginians; while Spendius and Matho, to render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco to a cruel death, presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were slaughtered; but soon after this battle, in another they took one of the Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying thirty of the principal senators round about him. Spendius and Matho were at last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death: but the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and was often brought within a hair's-breadth of utter ruin.
If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of losing their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a handful of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it should be a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so composed to be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from desiring such an increase of people as may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers.
Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a sufficient proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men are wanting to till the ground. For children do not proceed from the intemperate pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a regular way of living, where the father of the family desires to rear up and provide for the offspring he shall beget.
Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other polities thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected.
No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be attributed chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in contriving to promote the state of marriage.
The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless by his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both in the city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number of children. Encouragements of the like kind are also given in France to such as enrich the commonwealth by a large issue.
But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the pomp and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who look into all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that this duty on marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the poorer sort, whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any nation. This tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are to take measures from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families from public duties, we should not lay impositions upon those who find it hard enough to maintain themselves. If this tax be such a weight upon the poor as to discourage marriage and hinder propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries.
In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which must make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, but rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges and exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain offices of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where it is once made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will quickly obtain with the lower degree.
Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as perhaps the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual marriages of England are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of every 134 persons. Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due proportion, considering how few of our adult males (in comparison with other countries) perish by war or any other accident; from whence may be inferred that our polity is some way or other defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion with the gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom.
From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the nearest view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into 2,700,000 males and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the females exceed the males in number, and considering that the men marry later than women, and that many of the males are of necessity absent in the wars, at sea, and upon other business) it follows that a large proportion of the females remain unmarried, though at an adult age, which is a dead loss to the nation, every birth being as so much certain treasure, upon which account such laws must be for the public good, as induce all men to marry whose circumstances permit it.
From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that the near proportion there is between the males and females (which is said to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest that can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind which some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had intended to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a great many more female births than male, her designments being always right and wise.
The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders marriage. The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom they have got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further peopling of England if the common people here, under such a certain degree, were condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty.
A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, will never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour and industry of their people be well managed and carefully directed.
The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe.
It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but numbers of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a soil producing all sort of commodities. The materials for all this we have, and so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of Nature with our own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of greatness that would put us at least upon an equal footing with any of our neighbours.
If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; if we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is capable of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so extended would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that wealth which is the certain result of a large and well-governed traffic, what human strength could hurt or invade us? On the contrary, should we not be in a posture not only to resist but to give the law to others?
Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 acres, and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a figure have they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars have they maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a height of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise government?
They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums every year to defend their land against the sea; all which difficulties they have subdued by an unwearied industry.
We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at least 39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than 5,500,000 people. What a nation might we then become, if all these advantages were thoroughly improved, and if a right application were made of all this strength and of these numbers?
They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are disappointed. In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, under such a fear, make themselves strong and powerful at home. And this was the course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, when he thought to be invaded by the Romans.
The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it rather seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for fear the Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any ambition to lord it themselves over the whole world. Their design was virtuous, and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early interruption to a rival that grew so fast. However, we see they miscarried, though their armies were led by Hannibal. But fortune which had determined the dominion of the earth for Rome, did, perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of passing the Eber contrary to the articles of peace concluded with Asdrubal, and of attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently recovered of the wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and with their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal had not driven the commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint and weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their victories in Spain, and to get firm footing in that rich, warlike, and then populous country, very probably in a few years they might have been a more equal match for the Roman people. It is true, if the Romans had endeavoured, at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed the Carthaginians in that country, the war must have been unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and will be apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power, already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of Spain, will stand fair for universal empire.
But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation that apprehends the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify itself within; we do not mean by land armies, which rather debilitate than strengthen a country, but by potent navies, by thrift in the public treasure, care of the people's trade, and all the other honest and useful arts of peace.
By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws and to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be brought to so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as not to apprehend any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of its greatness.
And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see what materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth is able to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and a free people.
Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall proceed to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to examine who are a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by how much every part and member of the commonwealth can be made useful to the whole, by so much a nation will be more and more a gainer in this balance of trade which we are to treat of.
Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, titles and qualifications of the people. He has done it so judiciously, and upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful perusal of any curious person, from thence we shall make some observations in order to put our present matter in a clearer light.
First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the kingdom's remaining part, and from this view conclude that taxes and payments to the public do mostly arise from the gentry and better sort, by which measures they neither contrive their imposition aright, nor are they able to give a true estimate what it shall produce; but when we have divided the inhabitants of England into their proper classes, it will appear that the nobility and gentry are but a small part of the whole body of the people.
Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care not what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they come to be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public into an immense debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, as to occasion insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper business it was to contrive these matters better have been so unskilful, that the legislative power has been more than once compelled for the peoples' ease to give new funds, instead of others that had been ill projected.
This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon the common sort, so that such as think in new duties that they chiefly tax the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; for either their fund must yield little, or it must arise from the whole body of the people, of which the richer sort are but a small proportion.
And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore very rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now there is a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his country to proceed warily in laying new ones, and to get off those which are already laid as fast as ever he can. High customs and high excises both together are incompatible, either of them alone are to be endured, but to have them co-exist is suffered in no well- governed nation. If materials of foreign growth were at an easy rate, a high price might be the better borne in things of our own product, but to have both dear at once (and by reason of the duties laid upon them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and this ought to weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the common people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist from their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other part subsist a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the help and charity of the rank that is above them. For according to Mr. King's scheme -
The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the persons in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, freeholders, farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, shopkeepers, and tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with the families and dependants upon all these altogether, make up the number of 2,675,520 heads.
The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out- servants, cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, make up the number of 2,825,000 heads.
In all 5,500,520 heads.
So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much greater, in respect of the number of families, because 500,000 families contribute to the support of 850,000 families. In contemplation of which, great care should be taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, unless upon the extremest necessities of the State; for though such impositions cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty hinders them from consuming such materials (though there are few excises to which the meanest person does not pay something), yet indirectly, and by unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully into all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated.
First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity retrench their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are laid upon all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence follows, that the degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers, tradesmen, and artisans, must want employment.
Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are utterly destructive to that principal part of England's wealth; for if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently rise, for the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and if such as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture advance upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot live, all which would signify little, if nothing but our own dealings among one another were thereby affected; but it has a consequence far more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is the exportation of our own product that must make England rich; to be gainers in the balance of trade, we must carry out of our own product what will purchase the things of foreign growth that are needful for our own consumption, with some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, which overplus is the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or less according to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. The Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disadvantage they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious temper of their people; but in England, where this frugality is hardly to be introduced, if the duties upon our home consumption are so large as to raise considerably the price of labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation must by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold at a rate which will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence of such duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship than the material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of setting up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying goods of the like kind and use from nations that can afford them cheaper. And in this point we are to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports does not consist in draperies made of the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse broad cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which make a great part of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser wool, which is to be had in other countries. So that we are not singly to value ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, which we should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens upon the manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two-thirds of our foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care, if we expect to be gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we hunt after in these inquiries.
Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence is upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy these must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no small proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, which likewise affect the common seamen, who must thereupon raise their wages or they will not have wherewithal to keep their families left at home, and the high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign traffic. As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of the whole people, some duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not much because of their slender consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods and gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if the manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches must perish with cold and hunger.
Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the whole body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters as receding from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still think them the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and perhaps it is demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at the beginning of the war of raising the year's expense within the year by excises, England had not been now indebted so many millions, but what was advisable under such a necessity and danger is not to be pursued in times of peace, especially in a country depending so much upon trade and manufactures.
Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared off, for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may again move freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; but this point we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of our payments to the public.
Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal classes, viz.:-
Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads. Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads.
By which he means that the first class of the people from land, arts, and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something to the nation's general stock, and besides this, out of their superfluity, contribute every year so much to the maintenance of others.
That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour (as the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most of the wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a yearly burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be otherwise added to the nation's general stock.
The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as serviceable to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in honest labour and useful arts, and such being more in number do more contribute to increase the nation's wealth than the higher rank.
But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient Gauls and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well employed, make the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, as to any uses of good government.
Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed or by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member to it.
As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make provision for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a justice we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as have health, and who might maintain themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour of others.
The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the cottagers and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and vagrants.
Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about them, in all our calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at 500,000 families; but of these, a large number may get their own livelihood, and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 families, in which account he includes the poor-houses in cities, towns, and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these together to make up 1,330,000 heads.
This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon the other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the landed gentlemen must certainly be very sensible.
If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be rendered beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to be promoted by all who love their country.
It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, that the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real need of relief, is but small and might be maintained for very little, and that the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we now see them at by two sorts of people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, is suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in our constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of employment, though willing enough to undertake it.
All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be found out to set those to work who are desirous to support themselves by their own labour; and if this could be brought about, it would not only put a stop to the course of that vice which is the consequence of an idle life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the industry of not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, and, besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million and a half to the general stock of England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness might we not be brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the nourishment of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were rendered useful to it?
Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living creature either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic institution rightly governed.
It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work nobody will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and more meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but so many monuments of ill-gotten riches attended with late repentance.
To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly upon others get themselves a large share of their maintenance would be the opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per annum; it would be a present ease to every particular man of substance, and a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom, for it would not only nourish but increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands perish every year by those diseases contracted under a slothful poverty.
Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with little success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through some defect in the very laws.
The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; of this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the Prince's revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because the people must pay, and the Prince will be paid; but where only one part of the constitution, the people, are immediately concerned, as in laws relating to the poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good order in the state, those are but slenderly regarded.
The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong enough to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have many times fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the laws in execution.
In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men do not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public good should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give private men some interest to set it forward.
For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable gain to put the machine upon its wheels.
In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better maintaining the impotent, and employing and setting to work the other poor of this kingdom.
In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or plan laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was composed by a gentleman of great abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, and their number, more his study than any other person in the nation. The proposal is as follows
A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work.
First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of 300,000 pounds as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the impotent poor, and for buying commodities and materials to employ and set at work the other poor, be incorporated and made one body politic, &c. By the name of the Governor and Company for Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this Kingdom.
By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should advance several years' rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and 300,000 pounds may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the poor rates for a certain number of years, will be a very good fund for buying commodities and materials for a million of money at any time. This subscription ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the several counties of England and Wales, in proportion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, it would be most convenient; and provision may be made that no person shall transfer his interest but to one of the same county, which will keep the interest there during the term; and as to its being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the public. For first, all disputes on removes, which are very chargeable and burthensome, will be at an end—this proposal intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained or employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall be diligent, imposing on their neighbours who may be negligent, or getting away their manufactures from them. Thirdly, in case of fire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may not be sufficient to support the places where such calamities may happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support every particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to administer to every place according to their necessities.
Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of one-and-twenty years.
The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of infants, which is their service for their education; besides, it will be some years before a matter of this nature can be brought into practice.
Thirdly, that the said sum of 300,000 pounds be paid in, and laid out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during the said term of one-and-twenty years.
The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but the Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas or the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, and the remainder before they begin to act; but so as 300,000 pounds shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any dividends or other disposition: and an account thereof to be exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor for the time being.
Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in every parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during the said term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent poor good and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or better than hath at any time within the space of XXX years before the said XXX day of XXX been provided or allowed to such impotent poor, and so shall continue to provide for such impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor shall happen in the said parish during the said term.
By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and decrepid persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or any accident are for the time unable to labour for themselves or families; and all persons (not being fit for labour) who were usually relieved by the money raised for the use of the poor; they shall have maintenance, as good or better, as within XXX years they used to have.
This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it possible, by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in another; but it will be the interest of the Corporation that such poor be well provided for, by reason the contrary will occasion all the complaints or clamour that probably can be made against the Corporation.
Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or shall be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work proper for such persons to be employed in. And that provision shall be made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as such provision doth not exceed three-fourth parts as much as any other person would have paid for such labour. And in case they are not employed and set to work, then such persons shall, until materials or labour be provided for them, be maintained as impotent poor; but so as such persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on the poor's book, being able to labour, shall not quit the service of the corporation, without leave, for the space of six months.
The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth parts as much as any other person would give for such labour. For example, if another person would give one of these a shilling, the Corporation ought to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do, and consequently they ought not to allow so much as others. Secondly, in case any persons able to labour, shall come to the Corporation, when their agents are not prepared with materials to employ them, by this proposal they are to allow them full provision as impotent poor, until they find them work, which is entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither reasonable nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials upon every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with them, unless they can be secure of such persons to work up those materials; besides, without this provision, all the labouring people of England will play fast and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither shall be sure of them.
Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish where they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the churchwardens or overseers of the said parish, to what place of provision he or she is removed.
It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in houses prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made for several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that in some places one house will serve the impotent poor of several parishes, in which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good provision be made for them.
Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents of the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor to be maintained, and deduct the sum by them expended out of the next payments to be made to the said corporation by the said parish.
In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the Corporation is not present to provide for them, or having notice doth not immediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much out of the next payment; but there must be provision made for the notice, and in what time the Corporation shall provide for them.
Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the said one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, so much as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a medium of seven years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall receive the benefit of the revenues of all donations given to any parish, or which shall be given during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law gives to the use of the poor; and to all other sums which were usually collected by the parish, for the maintenance of the poor.
Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations for maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by reason there will be better provision for the maintenance of the poor than ever; and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce further charities, no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to them. But there are two objections to this article; first that to make a medium by a time of war is unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to give any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To the first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at any time during the war, and the charge of the poor greater; and when trade will mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it will be less to particular persons, because those who before received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; but besides, the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into industry; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy beggars, with the product of their labour, will altogether be a present benefit to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in the value; and further the accidental charities in the streets and at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and above the poor rates, at least 300,000 pounds per annum, which will be entirely saved by this proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a further consideration for its being well received, since the Corporation are not allowed anything for this service.
The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be performed; and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to make it effectual; for should such an undertaking as this prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it will increase the mischief.
Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and for punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to continue such parts as are found useful, and to add such other restrictions, penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain the end of this great work.
The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and opinions given upon them are so various and contradictory, and differ so in sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one general scheme of management.
Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to determine all matters and differences which may arise between the corporation and the respective parishes.
To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary to make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to officers of the parish; and that those officers having examined the same, and not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed in each county and each city for that purpose, who may be called supervisors of the poor, and may have allowance made them for their trouble; and their business may be to examine the truth of such complaints; and in case either the parish or corporation judge themselves aggrieved by the determination of the said supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal lie to the quarter sessions.
Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all public beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public beggars and idle vagrant persons.
Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution against those who shall ask any public alms.
This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a public spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking.
But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private persons are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, they abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest robe when they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves with a false zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not to be served. It were better, indeed, that men would serve their country for the praise and honour that follow good actions, but this is not to be expected in a nation at least leaning towards corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can hope for if the prospect of some honest gain invites people to do the public faithful service. For which reason, in any undertaking where it can be made apparent that a great benefit will accrue to the commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what fair advantages particular men may thereby expect to reap, still taking care to keep their appetite of getting within moderate bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, and making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow subjects.
It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to remain idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly tend to the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every year to the general stock of England.
Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we think it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of looking with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, where many thousands consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating bread and doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pernicious to the commonwealth.
We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill that may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a trading country, which should let no hands remain useless.
It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve and release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their fair, just, and honest rights and interest.
And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve and increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are methods conducing to make us gainers in the balance of trade.
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